Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($24.75)
BB ($25.18)
UTG ($36.16)
CO ($42.43)
Hero ($25.01)

Dealt to Hero K A

UTG calls $0.25, fold, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, UTG calls $1

FLOP ($2.87) J J T

UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2

TURN ($6.87) J J T Q

UTG checks, Hero bets $5.15, UTG calls $5.15

RIVER ($17.17) J J T Q 7

UTG bets $27.75, (AI)

V:90/0/1.8/10h

Turn, I play b/c I guess, and river am I calling?

his line on river looks like monster, but his range is wider than JQ/JT and folding here is huge mistake?

oard: Jc Jd Th Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.456% 45.76% 00.69% 1188 18.00 { QQ-TT, 77, AJs, KJs, QJs, J5s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J8o+ }
Hand 1: 53.544% 52.85% 00.69% 1372 18.00 { AcKd }

The range you have him on it way too wide.

It is? Vs a guy who has played the first 9 out of 10 hands at the table?

u forgot K9s, 98s. id remove QQ and 77. J5s seems a bit low. anyways its a call. he can have missed diamonds and/or gutshot.

yeah,

any comments?

b/f or b/c turn, call river?
on what ranges we put him on river?

I would call. He has just as many lower straights, bluffs, and random trips in his range that I call.

This spot is seriously impossible to comment on without reads. I would probably time out here.

Looking at his stats I call, I'm not happy tho.

This really sucks, lol. I think you should fold here. The only added value to calling (besides being right like 5-10% of the time) is that you now know what range he could be doing this with. Which, in case he is FOS, can be very valuable. But you can get reads like this through stupid calls made by others so, fold. You cannot assign a range for this river action based on his preflop stats but loose passive players tend to play even trips more passive then he does. I think that every time I did call in a spot like this villain had J7.

I called, fortunatly for me he had AT.
However I am not sure how to act in future in spots like this vs fishes.
sick spot

How is this a sick spot?
You have nut straight on paired board vs a guy who is playing %90 of his dealt hands.

Just a question, because I don't really know when to cbet...

Is this a good Cbet here? Why are we betting the flop here?

value

Hm, thanks... I was thinking a lil bit, and realized that we can get value against FD-s, str8 draws etc

I dont agree, I think a overshove like this is very often a fullhouse. C-betting is fine obv.

lol @ the nits in this thread

snapcall

snapcall fistpump.

hmmmm, overbet is the nuts, i fold.

LOL, I have a hard time taking this forum serious lately.

I just played 200k hands since the beginning of december and most times I lost was by second guessing myself in spots like this. *ie paying off.

Its funny how the responses shifted right after OP posted the result. Not saying that WW is result oriented but the people right after him obv didnt think for themselves. You obv didnt.

Saying that this is prob a call is fine. You might be right allthough I dont see why, you didnt really confince me yet.....

Not acknowledging this is a though spot and that u PROBABLY will be wrong a decent amount of the time is a fundamental error, means you are autopiloting in your responses and prob dont think enough about similar spots.

This really depends on, does villain think his Tx is teh nutzz on that board.

I'd call.

This spot isn't tough as such, just a situation where there are set variables.that are easy too see, just hard to justify given recent results orientated thinking. Imo

I'd call here. He has lower straights and any jx here imo. Sure he's boated sometimes but that's life. Just be glad the river wasnt 7diamonds.

It was painful reading this response. This is not a tough spot, its actually ridiculously easy. If you think this is tough, then you are grossly overlooking leaks where you just normally assuming too many things.

It will even be more painful when tomorrow I think back and say:

WHy did i evne bother responding?


anyway, you need to understand that poker is about equity. There are decisions that we all make in poker that are thin, way +EV, way -EV, or whatever, we just make them. There are/is rarely any situations where we ever have exactly 100% equity. This is what you nits need to realize. Put in stove for the value (we'll just assume hes never "bluffing," LOL) hands he can do this with on the river, put in your nut straight. Then see how +EV it is...

We have the nut straight, 100bb, he plays 90% of hands (even over 10 hands), missed flush on board, can play Jx like this, 89 like this. This is not all that close in my opinion.

How can hero consider anything else than calling vs this guy?