Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $28.10
BTN: $39.25
SB: $54.50
BB: $18.10
UTG: $54.05
Hero (MP): $48.30

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with A K
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, SB raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.25) 2 8 5 (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($16.25) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($36.25) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $15, Hero folds


Villain is 11/9/2 over 205 hands.

I don't know what's standard pf when this occurs. Just lay it down ?!
On the flop, we are both pretty deep so I think I had good implied odds.
On the turn, I find a gutshot too and I didn't know what to do. I hate to raise because it's so likely he has an overpair.

Calling is standard preflop IP, OOP we can consider laying it down vs. this nit though.

On the flop, you are 47.8% vs. his stack off range if it's QQ+, you need 46.7% to stack off without fold equity; so raising is not horrible, but calling is better with so much behind.

On the turn, you are 34.4% vs. QQ+, and you probably don't have much fold equity; the pot odds practically mandate a call.

So yah, you played it fine.

PF i think is fine against this opponent this deep.

I'm finding it really hard to work out what the best play if post-flop, my thoughts -

If we put his range as JJ-AA on the flop, which i think is a pretty fair and workable range, we're basically 50-50. I'm going to assume that he never folds on the flop and for analysis purposes we get it in every time. So if we raise i'm going to assume that it's basically neutral EV as we get it in flipping on average.

Now, if we flat call and hit a diamond on the turn+river, i'm assuming that he never folds and we stack him basically every time unles it's the Qd. So 34% of the time we win $100 and 66% we lose $15.

(.34*100)+(.66*-15)=
34 + -10 = + $24

Adding in our overpair outs is hellishly difficult given hand combo frequencies and possible outcomes on the turn/river, but i think given what i just worked out about the flush draw that calling is more +EV than raising.

It's late so i may be way of on a few points, so don't hesistate to try and correct me anywhere.