[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
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Hero (SB): $280.25 (140.1 bb)
BB: $210.55 (105.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J Q
Hero raises to $4, BB calls $2

Flop: ($8) J 8 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $17, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($42) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $33, Hero calls $33

River: ($108) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $156.55 and is all-in, Hero ?

Vill is reggish, but not great according to PTR. (breakevenish, slightly winner)

So far he c/r a wet board and c/f turn. Since that we battled a bit, but nothing really fancy.
Vpip_SB 53%, 3bets 23.5% (i was minraising pre and folding to 3bets a bit, prolly 60-70%ish)

this is his 2nd c/r on his 5th opportunity...

HEROOOOOOO´s calling range?

not really sure what to think with his OB on this board/runout so Im not gonna speculate on that. you should call. uve got a pretty decent hand, all draws miss and he can have a ton of hands that like to c/r... like we dont know what his river range is exactly but we at least know his flop c/r range and turn betting range is fairly wide.. 9T, 97, 67 are all "8" out straight draws, theres also QT, Q9, and all flush draws (and more than vs a 3x raise pre). Also another nice thing is that J5 has to be suited to call pre, 85 is now ****ed (altho very likely checks but w/e). its also possible, altho unlikely, that u randomly beat JT or J9. He also is likely 3betting 88 @ 24% and vs. minraises.

altho if u want my thoughts on the OB they are this:

he probably assumes your calling range is going to be fairly static vs various bet sizings. i.e. youre calling 85$ with QJ and $150 and folding w/e to both. like maybe he just bets $50 or something to get u to fold your draws when he has T9 and then JAMs his nut hands. but who knows. maybe he has 1 bet sizing here and thats a JAM. i wouldnt really look into the sizing that much until u know if he has 2 sizes.

Feels like you're outkicked imo, or worse.

I would say call, just because that's bluff behaviour of him betting his draws and missing. I mean if he had toppair or a set on the turn, which will lead to either 2 pair or a full house on the river, he would most likely not overbet the pot that much but just go for the value bet. It all looks to much like he wants you out of the hand.

This may sounds fairly simple, but in most cases this is just the outcome. I wouldn't put him on a monster because he would've 3bet his pocket pair preflop, if he has AJ / KJ he would've value bet on the river and not shove. Sounds like a draw missing most of the time and sometimes a monster greedy move. That last thing just happens, thing is HU is all about making these calls to get profit.

that can mean he's more KJ/AJ combos in his range.it's still a call,imo.

Then again maybe I'm just playing to much fish
You said he is a breakeven slightly winning player, bluffing in these situation would surely make him a losing player.

He wouldn't be shoving j8 now since you could beat him with the overpair, so it looks more like he is bluffing with a missed draw. I'd call it. If he had a flopped set then it's just a cooler, but a flopped set is the only thing that beats us here. He shows up with missed draws a lot of the time. I'm pretty happy calling here.

I'm definitely not folding.

I wanted fold before reading this

If you were villain in this hand do you think it is a profitable spot to shove aj here due to all draws missing and hero,s range being weighted towards bluffcatchers that may be inclined to hero call? As someone mentioned our calling range is pretty static in terms of bet size as we either have a medium strength hand or missed draw ourselves.

Would you call A8 here?

Well in order to call you need 60% equity, after doing some work on Combonator, villain needs to be bluffing all of his (FD+gutchouts) that missed, as well as half his other pure FD's and open enders. You said that villain is reggish but not great so I am not giving him credit for being able to shove KJ. I'm assuming his value hands are two pairs and sets. Close decision.

Really feels like Ac2c though.

lol
I do not think I am calling here. People are aware of these spots and I do not think that in an nl200 game you should worry about getting exploited here, if ever.

^ Why's that funny? I'm being sincere... I'm trying to learn more about HU. Thanks.

If he is advanced enough to have this betsize as bluff, his bluffingfrequency is too low. If he is maniacish enough to have this size as a bluff, you would notice ages ago. If you don't know, hes probably too often too passive or uses other sizes as bluff too often. ...?

I've seen lots of reggish players bluff shove in these spots though. And every draw has missed. So I think it's close but I don't think I could fold.

Meh, I get what you're saying but these statements are way too static.

wait, in the description u said vpip sb is 53%?? did u mean vpip bb? if his vpip sb is 53% then this dude is certainly a fish.



Hand 0: 35.294% { QhJs }
Hand 1: 64.706% { 88, 55, KJs, QTs, QTo, J8s, J5s, KJo, J8o }


we need 37% to call. ^ that stove might not be perfect but I think it's prob likely if hes 3betting 24% we should include some 88, KJ and def AJ in his 3b range pre.

****but the whole point of that stove is to demonstrate what our equity is when his value range is sorta tight and then u start to throw in some bluff combos.

****i only put in all combos of QT as his bluff range and were extremely close to a call.

****think about what his flop c/r range looks like... QT, Q9, 9T, 97s, 67s, 69s all flush draws would be a good start. i mean yeah u can argue whatever u want about maybe he 3bets some of those, but whatever--the point is he's going to be c/r the flop and barreling the turn with a ton of bluff combos. so...what do you want to give him on the river? Just...none? So just say he shuts down with them all on the river? Nonsense imo. All we need him to do is ship every QT and NOTHING ELSE and we essentially break even!

Fold

You realize that theoretically the bigger the bet the more bluffs you can have in your range? Not sure why it would mean his bluffing frequency is too low...

That said the reason he can bluff more is we need better equity to call so w/e prob evens itself out. That is all assuming he is "advanced enough" to bluff a decent amount here.

Other than that basically what TC said at every point.

i would fold here. The problem is hes not showing any sign that he is trying hit a draw here. The one hand he could have is like flush draw with over cards. BUt again all the draws missed and him shoving the river he knows its like a very dangerous move cause everythign missed. he knows at this point on the river you have a jack at the very least. I think i call the raise on the flop and fold the turn. Regs don't use this line very often where they are bluffing with a draw. Its usually for value when they flopped something huge. So i would fold the turn. My rule is to fold and be wrong then call and be wrong you lose less money. If hes using this line and over and over again you have to hold on with top pair. Everyones right that all the draws sometimes you have to get stacked off here. but If hes never doing this i think its a fold. Its really not what about you can beat its about what they have that can beat you. Hes not showing any sign of weakness or any sign that hes on a draw. So i think its a fold imo. THis is a good spot to check back with top pair and just queen kicker cdause if they have draws they dont call to try to hit there draw anymore they raise the flop pound the turn and jam rivers and your in a tough spot. if i had a j here id definitely call or reraise all in on the flop but with q j meh.. id fold.

Preflop he is repping weak. Post flop he is repping a monster (almost specifically 88 and 55)

I think he would have 3bet (23% 3bet) 88 & maybe 55 preflop. Yet post flop that is exactly what he's trying to rep (maybe A2cc but i think he might c/c turn with that).

It feels dirty calling with QJ here cuz it seems like a bad spot for him to bluff, but there are soooo many more missed draw hands than what he is trying to rep that I would call.

omg, (ok i'm used to be a CS) but this go to my favour, cause i went WAY more to showdowns and i can tell you, that if his PTR is not that good, it is because he might be bad at some point, and this is the PERFECT spot to catch him bluffing, i mean : he CAN'T have overpairs which he would have almost always 3B, the same for top set. He reps only 6 combos ; 88 and 55; and he has PLENTY of busted draws : flush draws, str8 draws of both, even random spazz, and this is WAY MORE than 6 combos (even if you would tell me he wouldn't always 3barrel his missed draws) and in this particular spot, HE WILL bluff more often than not, because, it really looks like 88 or 55 or big draw (nut flush draw or Gutshot+fd that 2nd barrel and feel obligated to rep nuts by overbetting river).

This is a turbo call !

call all day

every combo draw he c/r the flop with missed