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NL2 - Set with difficult river NL2 - Set with difficult river

07-06-2017 , 05:15 PM
Hey guys,

I was wondering about your thoughts on this hand.

Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 3084422
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $9.70
SB: $3.17
Hero (BB): $2.31
UTG: $2.19
MP: $3.57
CO: $1.28

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with T T
2 folds, CO calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.10, CO calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.21) K J T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.13, CO calls $0.13

Turn: ($0.47) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30

River: ($1.07) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.75 all in, Hero calls $0.75


Villain is basically unknown, however due to his stack size, I figured it is more likely that he is a fish.

I believe the fflop and the turn are just standard value bets. We will get calls from a lot of Kx hands, maybe some calls from hands with a Jack like QJ, J9 etc. and Qx hands on the flop.
The Q on the river makes the hand pretty ugly, as every A and every 9 make a straight now. However, since he just limped preflop and called on the flop and on the turn, I believe that an Ace is very rare in his range. He would have most likely raised stuff like AK, AQ and AJ preflop and would have folded other Ax hands along the way. K9 and maybe in some cases J9 could call the flop and the turn, but I mainly put him on broadways here. So he could have made two pairs on the river.

Thank you for your comments in advance.
NL2 - Set with difficult river Quote
07-06-2017 , 05:29 PM
For AJ-AK, think we can take this out of villains range but can decrease the frequency it is in it. Think we can definitely put tons of Ax/9x in a fishes range in this spot, can see them calling with a pair + gutshot quite a bit.

I can't see villain turning SDV into bluffs in this spot, neither value betting worse given how 2NL players are known for their incredibly tight value betting. You're hoping for villain to just spazz out, and I don't think they're to make this a profitable call.
NL2 - Set with difficult river Quote
07-06-2017 , 05:30 PM
From what I've seen of passive fishy players, they don't bluff nearly as often as they should. He'll have plenty of aces in his range as well, I imagine every suited ace plus (hearts+spades) and probably some AT/AJ/AQ as well. I would fold.
NL2 - Set with difficult river Quote
07-06-2017 , 06:15 PM
Think youre just falling into the trap of feeling entitled with your set. Ive seen rec players/fish limp with their weak aces or suited aces or even AK as it "doesnt play well if you dont flop a pair"

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NL2 - Set with difficult river Quote
07-06-2017 , 06:22 PM
River's an easy fold. You have so many Aces in your range here (that you should be checking) that he'd be pretty dumb to bluff here.
NL2 - Set with difficult river Quote
07-06-2017 , 09:04 PM
Stacks are kinda awkward here - almost feels like you should just pot flop and (overbet) shove turn
NL2 - Set with difficult river Quote

      
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