PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $2.45 (VPIP: 49.12, PFR: 31.58, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 58)
SB: $2.00 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 7)
BB: $1.22 (VPIP: 48.04, PFR: 34.31, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 107)
UTG: $2.00 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 13)
Hero (CO): $1.70

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has 9 9

fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BTN raises to $0.21, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.45, 2 players) T J 7
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.28, fold,

I called since he's playing 49/32/12 so far, so he's probably 3betting pretty light. I really hated the flop since it's pretty often hitting his 3bet range, so he has a lot of equity. In this spot with nines and a gutshot I don't think it's profitable to call, there's not many good turn and river cards for us.

I ran the spot in PT4's Equity Calculator and put his 3bet range to 88+, AQo, ATs+, which is loose, but I think pretty appropriate considering his stats. Vs this "optimistic" range we have about 47% equity. His cbet stat was 78% and AF 4, but I think he's firing at least 2 barrels pretty much every time, so we would've probably gotten in a really horrible spot on the turn.

What do you think?

Would consider 4betting vs this guy

As played flop is too early to fold, later streets will suck though

could argue to fold flop as played, you looking for an 8 or a 9. which your 9 can actually be dirty. problem with continuing is you have slim chances to improve if you aren't already behind. stack bleeder here

I wouldn't want to 4bet since he's probably going to 5bet, at least call. And against this kind of maniac I don't like to build a huge pot pf with 99, since there's so many cards we don't want to see that he's going to bet on. As I also said, he's probably firing with air at least 2 streets, where we have to make hard decisions - unless of course, we hit a set or catch a (rare) good flop and turn for nines.

I agree with you that I could've called the flop and re-evaluated on the turn, but came to the conclusion that there's just so few cards we want to see on later streets and also the fact that he's very rarely checking the turn. He has a history of betting every street, both with air and with a hand. Thanks for the input though!

Agree 100%.

I like check folding flop because I think calling will just get you into marginal ev spots against this guy. You should probably just get into better value spots against this villian. Also his 3bet stat is not loose so you should give villian more credit in 3bet + spots.

I agree. No his 3bet stat is not loose (yet), but it's not exactly tight either. But you're right, I could easily narrow down his 3bet range. As I said in the OP, it was an optimistic range, haha.