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nl1k. river c-r

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04-27-2008 , 04:39 AM

lkjhgfdsa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,040

Villain is HibachiMahi, playing 22/16/3 tag style. We dont have any real history, nothing out of line. Good/bad/why?

Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

SB: $1896.00
BB: $1102.00
UTG: $1000.00
Hero (MP): $1813.50
CO: $1911.00
BTN: $1020.00

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with T

1 fold, Hero raises to $35, CO calls $35, 3 folds

Flop: ($85.00) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $70, CO calls $70

Turn: ($225.00) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $160, Hero calls $160

River: ($545.00) Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $385, Hero raises to $1548.50 all in

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04-27-2008 , 05:19 AM

mperich

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 4,212

looks good.

-Mike

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04-27-2008 , 05:59 AM

Some9

banned

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,514

you rep QQ und hearts, he is value betting hands he folds and he can be bluffing.
while he will slowplay a set on this flop often, he should be less inclined to do so because of stack sizes.

I guess like it, even more when he folds like 22

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04-27-2008 , 06:00 AM

chirpy

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 388

Really like this too...

All I would add is I play a couple of regs with similar stats that seem like calling stations post flop (and incapable of folding kq+ here imo even considering stacks) so I guess you have to know your opponent a little.

vs 95% of thinking regs tho I think this is a good spot for this

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04-27-2008 , 06:28 AM

noteye

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,204

This looks like a bluff, if you hit the set or back door flush/str8 you would have raised him to get a bet out of him. It is a hard bluff to call though, if I didn't have top 2 at the min I think I would lay them down.
You really have to be worrying about him hitting the back door flush here, If he felt when you checked the turn that he may take it down with a semi-bluff on a flush draw your in big trouble now.

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04-27-2008 , 07:44 AM

NhK

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,082

nice moves

i like it

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04-27-2008 , 08:25 AM

Djeorge

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 715

The problem is aren't you barreling turned hearts a lot of the time?

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04-27-2008 , 08:39 AM

lkjhgfdsa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,040

not 9

, and something like A

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04-27-2008 , 08:43 AM

Djeorge

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 715

Fair point

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04-27-2008 , 08:46 AM

#10

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

we wouldnt double barrel pair + fd all the time, although we would some of the time. Its super hard for villan to call without a flush here so its probably good.

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04-27-2008 , 09:53 AM

#11

lkjhgfdsa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,040

Also notice his river betsizing: I doubt he would bet that small w/ a flush/set.

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04-27-2008 , 10:23 AM

#12

pokerchap

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,514

Quote:

Originally Posted by lkjhgfdsa

not 9

, and something like A

why is the 2 a good card to barrel and not a 3?

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04-27-2008 , 11:01 AM

#13

o_O-zZ

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 15

Because paired hands with a draw have too much equity to bet-fold em on that turn, and we still cant stand if he make semibluff/bluff raise.

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04-27-2008 , 11:11 AM

#14

Eddi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

What is villain's value-betting range on the river? What part of that range is he very likely to fold?

I think people who say this is good should be able to answer the above two questions.

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04-27-2008 , 04:05 PM

#15

lkjhgfdsa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,040

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eddi

What is villain's value-betting range on the river? What part of that range is he very likely to fold?

I think people who say this is good should be able to answer the above two questions.

1. {Bluffs, Kx+, and maaaaybe QJ/QT}?
2. {Sets/flushes-}?

Last edited by lkjhgfdsa; 04-27-2008 at 04:10 PM.

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04-27-2008 , 04:23 PM

#16

Eddi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Let's see.

KTs, KJs, KQ, QJs = 28 combos
Ah9h, 9h8h, 22, 99 = 14 combos

Let's say he calls 4 combos of KQ and folds 12 of them. So we have 24 combos he folds and 18 combos he calls with.

You're putting 1548 to win 930, so you need him to fold 62% of the time, which means he needs to have about 5 combos of bluffs. I guess it is good then, 5 bluff combos doesn't seem like much.

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04-27-2008 , 04:31 PM

#17

willw9

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 8,576

this is teh sex

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04-27-2008 , 05:00 PM

#18

Erik W

adept

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 902

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djeorge

The problem is aren't you barreling turned hearts a lot of the time?

And what else do you rep except qq?

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04-28-2008 , 05:13 AM

#19

lkjhgfdsa

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,040

results: he tanked like forever then folded.

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