$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
3 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($1,000) 100bb
Hero (SB) ($1,094) 109bb
BB ($2,086.84) 209bb

26/19
3bet 6.3
BB vs SB: Fold 56, Call 32, 3bet 12
Fold to cbets IP (46,42,67(9))
Raise cbets IP (6,13,0(5))
Floats IP (47,62,54(13))
Fold to ch-r (47,31(13),75(4))
agr (2.5,2.6,2.4), afq (35,31,25)
wtsd,w$sd,wwsf = (27,52,42)

What about value X-r river?
What about X-call blanc river vs him (4 for example)?

Pre-Flop: ($15, 3 players) Hero is SB 9 J
BTN folds, Hero raises to $30, BB calls $20

Flop: 7 4 J ($60, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, BB calls $40

Turn: 3 ($140, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $90, Hero calls $90

River: 9 ($320, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $210, Hero calls $210

Final Pot: $740

Since you give quite detailed stats for villain it seems weird that you don't mention your SB open % and overall cbet stats. That said he does have some hands that have you beat, like 44/77, some 56s. River he sure isn't betcalling Jx unless ur reeeeally riverbluffy and he doesn't have many worse 2 pairs to hero with either.

I think you should know this before you start checking

re x/r river I don't think you have to here. maybe J7, or 34 might call. (34 might fold). but there are a ton of straights and sets that are gonna own you. too lazy to count but my guess is there are a lot more of those.

KJ is prob likely his top value hand that you beat (assuming AJ 3 bets a bunch...but I suppose you could include that a little bit)...I don't think that hand is going to call a cr.

After doing some work on the hand and taking into consideration his stats, I consider that he has about 20 straight combos (T8s, T8o, 65s) and could be more if he calls pre with 65o which was borderline on the range I assigned him pre. He also has about 5 set combos (he mostly 3bets 99 pre, and he might raise sometimes with 77 and 44 on the flop). About 6 two pair combos J9s, J9o, J7s (discounted due to flop action), 97s and could be more if he calls pre with 97o, which again was borderline. He has about 21 top pair combos and about 9 bluffs.

So out of 61 total combos, facing a raise he will certainly fold his 9 bluffs and re-raise T8.

I think it's key that your line would look kinda bluffy, like you are turning SDV into a bluff, and that should expand his calling range.

Let me break down his range to further detail. From his value range you are beaten by 9 combos (sets + 65s), and you beat 23 combos (top pair + weaker two pair). You split against 4 combos of J9.

Assuming he calls a raise to $550 with a 75% frequency with the part of his value range that you beat:

You win ($320+$210) when he folds: 9/61 + 23*0.25/61 -> +$128
You win ($320+$550) when he calls and you win: 23*0.75/61 -> +$246
You lose $550 when he calls and you lose, or when you get shoved and you fold: 9/61 + 16/61 -> -$225

So on average, raising to $550 will make +$149. EV+


The thing is, maybe flatting his river bet has a higher EV. Making some fast calcs:

(9+21+2)/61 * $530 = +$278
(5+20)/61 * $210 = -$86

EV(Flatting river) = +$192

With this assumptions, which I believe are pretty accurate you should only call the river, though it's close. Change the variables, such as the range he has when he bets OTR, his calling river freq, river raise sizing, etc, and you'll come up with dif. results.

nice post...

I'd even put his calling frequency a bit lower (with hands you beat)...so it looks like a pretty clear-cut call in a vacuum.

Very clear river call. He's value betting plenty of worse hands.