So before any remark about pf, BB is a huge mark at the table and Im pretty excited to play KTs against him this deep in position. MP2 is the other fish at the table. Both are loose and passive.

Villain is a standard reg 16/12/4.2% 3bet /55% ftcbet / 66% ft2ndbarrel / 24% wtsd.

Flop cbet is too weak since im calling a raise anyway given depth, having the nut flushdraw and a backdoor straightdraw.
When only reg calls the flop I think his range is wide cause the fish is still to act.
Some Ax, some lower fd, Im not sure he's raising sets on that dry a board with the fish involved.
Turn Im setting up for a triple barrel if I miss and bloating the pot for when I hit. When he calls again I somewhat think he has less sets (he had only 6 combos anyway), so Ax and FD make up a good part of his range.

We have no history, I dont think we ever played for stacks and he sees me around 16/13. Im not sure he knows I raise much wider utg here due to the fish.

What range do we put him on and how do we optimize our betsizing against the different parts of his range (mostly Ax and flushes) ?



Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+1: $123.95
MP1: $200.00
MP2: $199.65
CO: $238.15
BTN: $185.50
SB: $87.40
BB: $203.65
Hero (UTG): $244.10

Pre Flop: ($3.10) Hero is UTG with K T
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($14.10) 6 3 A (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, MP2 folds, CO calls $8, BB folds

Turn: ($30.10) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.50, CO calls $21.50

River: ($73.10) J (2 players)
Hero bets how much

either crai or bet/3bshv something dumb like $29.

yeah, I'd definitely make it seem like a blocker. Villain most likely has AK/AQ. He never has a set here, and I don't think the river made him top 2. So, I guess bet something 25-30 hoping that he would call, or best case scenario he decides to raise you off your 'AK'
i would never check here though, attempting to c/r, I think villain's very likely to check begind a lot here

Any reason for him not to squeeze AK here?? Cause other Ax is only Axs (if those are in his range at all), don't think he's calling with hands like AQo or even worse preflop against your utg pfr. He plays those Axs for flushvalue mainly and I don't think he's calling that second barrel with AQ or worser Ax after you Cb flop in a 4w pot from UTG on A high board, unless you have a really aggro image or other reasons to believe he called your turnbarrel light.

I also don't think he's calling your turnbarrel with a draw, unless unless he thinks you're a fish and pay off or only dubble with sets (IO). Also unlikely.

Very little Ax or worse possible and draws are also unlikely.

Therefor, I think he's more likely to have a weirdly played set or maybe A6s/A3s/A2s. Anyway, I'd think his range is pretty strong here and it comes down to the question: does he have enough discipline to fold 2pairs and the lower sets if you overbet shove the river, while he was heavily underrepping his hand? If not, than I definitly like a riverovershove. Otherwise, just Vb somewhere between 2/3-3/4 PSB imo, unless you think he's shipping A3/A6/A2 or 33/66 if you bet smaller (but I think he's calling most of those hands on the river more often). Crai would be a pretty good option too, as I think he's Vbetting most of those hands when checked too.

Also not sure about turnbarrel. Can you explain why?

Oh wait, fml, it's deep. Yeah, he definitly has flushdraws in his range and even less Ax imo. I definitly like overshove here unless you think he's able to fold a flush.

edit: nevermind, my advice is not well thought here. Shouldn't post when baked. Ignore me please...

If you think his range is mostly sets/two pairs--and I kinda suspect you're right--isn't c/r shove better than shoving? When we check river I can't imagine he'll put us on a flush and check back two pair-plus.

Or, do you think he'll call our shove a lot more than he'll call a c/r shove because it looks bluffier?

Against me I think he checks back Ax and this is still a lot of combos compared to flush given that we have Kh and Th in our hand.
And its not like if he had a river checking range to protect in this spot, so I dont think checking can be good whatsoever.

villain calling 2pair or sets on super drawy board indicates he's scared. If his range is so strong yet he is just OVERcalling flop and calling turn, I think he's almost always checking that river behind and never raising any bet that looks to him as a value bet. This is why I think our only options are 1) shove, hoping he levels himself into believing we have some sort of QQ/KK and gone crazy, or what I think is more likely 2) gay bet, hoping he'll either call with Ak/ Aces up or perhaps, best case scenario, goes crazy himself

Yeah I never play this deep, so I have no idea, I should learn to read threadtitles and look at stacksizes when reading a hand before posting.

idk, what's best here and if idk, I just bet 3/4 psb or overshove and hope for the best .

Assume he doesnt 3-bet AK pre vs your UTG range 200bb deep.

9 combos AK
12 combos of AQ

He might have 200bb deep say 66% of the time
2 combos AJs
2 combos ATs

Most likely only 2 sets
3 of 6s and 3s
but most of the time they raise flop or turn.
maybe one only combo of both combined

1 set combination

Flush combos
98 is definitely there and can play this way
87 ditto
54 You would think raises the turn if there to begin with but prolly does not always raise flop - I discount this one heavily
97 - can be there 200bb deep in CO
Q9 maybe
Q8 prolly not

Probably we could say 4 combinations of FDs

agree with this. i cant see him not raising a set on the flop given its MW with a FD out there. very possible this is A6s or A3s. doubt he is ever calling 2 strong barrels this deep with some kind of underpair that doesnt believe you unless he is suppper stationy.

anyway i wanna say make some kind of blocker looking bet to induce, problem is it never will induce a shove while you are this deep, and the only way a c/r works is to induce a bluff by saying you are scared of the flush and letting him rep it, i think he checks most of his SD hands behind(besides worse flushes), he would Vbet a set most likely but i really cant see him ever having a set unless he played it ******ed.

sooo i think $40-$50 and hope he has something good enough to call with, i doubt you are ever getting the rest of his stack no matter how you play the river.

you dont think this deep he plays Axs hands to hit nut hands? so i think you can add combos of A6s and A3s

Ah on the board otherwise it would be a much tougher spot

not sure. maybe 30% of combos (aka say.. 4 combos)

The thing is I have no barreling history with him and I showed massive strentgh cbetting and barreling this board while the fishes were involved, so I dont expect him to go all "lol polarized" on me and start calling two streets with JJ/QQ.


And nice post digger, makes a lot of sense.

shove is pretty awful v this villain and it would seem checking would be too.

almost every Ax hand he has that isnt AK, AJ is checking behind. All of his sets raise by the turn if not on flop, so hes not got a strong non-pair holding unless he has a flush, which is somewhat unlikely considering AJTKh are all accounted for, so the legitimate flush hands he can be holding are significantly lowered.

realistically his range by the river is mostly AJ(maybe) AQ-AK with some potential flushes and weaker hands

I really think if he has a flush hes going to be raising it regardless, so I think a bet anywhere between 38-48 givinh him a chance to value own himself with lower flushes. Youll get looked up by an ace alot, and obviously any set is calling/ if somehow he shows up with a straight or two pair you could even get raised. vs a good villain shoving here is awful since hes not gonna call with anything less than a set, and if hes a nit he could even fold tat

So say our choice is between half pot and overshove.
Where we expect Ax to fold to a shove.
We expect all flushes to call a shove.
We are unsure that he raises ever even flushes.
He prolly calls his one set to a shove.
We are not sure he 3-bets his one set but maybe 6s and not 3s
He does not monkey shove as a bluff.

So....
Half pot = $37

We expect that all AK call.
Probably somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 AQ call a transparent thin value bet.
Of the times he calls two sts with AJs or ATs - which I guess depends upon how aggressive you are how sticky he is...
only AJs and there is prolly only 1 combo - left on river.
The set.

9+4+1+1?(set) =15 combinations

vs 4 combinations of Flushes and one set.
5 combinations

so 15 x 37 = $555 total return

Shove = 3 + 8+ 21.5 -238.15
Effective stacks = 205

5x 205 = 1225

It would appear given that hand distribution and assumed reponses that shoving is more than twice as profitable.

If he 3-bet shoves flushes and sets with other things being =

Ax and aces up call
so 10x$37 = $370
Sets and flushes 3-bet shoving
4x$205 = $820
= $1190

Pretty close if he gets it in no matter what with flushes and set.

I'm even doubting he's calling the turn with AK/AQ or worse Ax...

Cavaet: I think we might be overestimating number of Flushes
He might only ever have 89 and 87.

If you place Aces up in the range - and you assume he is a good player - he can get to the river playing the hand this way.
Which would increase the Ax hands by 8.

He would be leaking - if he folded AK to two barrells from an aggressive TAG like JL imo.
His f to fcbet f tocbet - suggests that he has AK and AQ but prolly not AQ always.

I think that if I overbet he is not calling baby flushes and I honestly doubt he is even calling Qhigh flush more than 50%, because I rep only hand and frankly 200bb deep it would be a pretty terrible bluff while I can bet 55-60bbs and get folds from the rest of his range.
He would have to level himself pretty hard to call a shove with a set too, since overbetshoving AA here would be pretty terrible this deep too.



Another reg in the game told me he was pretty cally, but I did not know that at the time. To be frank we pretty had the same stats and i had looked those up when action was still pf on the BB. So I somewhat tried to put myself in his shoes. I think AQ is a clearcut fold on the turn and a snap fold to a bet if you took it to the river for some reason (and a clear check back incidentally), AK is probably a call on the turn and a fold to any reasonable bet on this river since Im not mental (well i did want to triple some rivers, but its precisely because of this)

That said Ive been pretty barrel happy today, so maybe he saw some other hand which yielded a lighter call on the turn. Not sure but given the context with the 4way flop, it'd be pretty bad whatsoever.
Also its always best to assume that people call too much rather than they fold too much, so well I guess we can put some AQ in there and some AK for a river call.

Perhaps the most interesting question is what range should villian call a half pot bet from JL?
And what range should he call a shove?

.

So JL - you had AAA and you potted the river - it is bet/call? or bet/fold? vs this guy.

My value shoving 240BB deep here is two combos KThh, KQhh. But with KQhh shoving would be even worse insofarthat we have the flush combos killed.
You cant shove AA and expect to be called by worse by a thinking reg who does not think you are mental, given the way the hand played out. Pretty much the sames with non-nut flushes, we still have two hundred american dollars behind !