Villain is a good reg.
Flow of the game is somewhat aggro. I have been barelling the turn very often.
I think this is his first ck raise in the match turn but i def think is capable of bluffing / taking tricky lines.


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 1667621
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $178.91
Hero (BTN/SB): $190.19

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN/SB with A K
Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.00) 4 Q 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.57, BB calls $3.57

Turn: ($13.14) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.45, BB raises to $19, Hero calls $12.55

River: ($51.14) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $26.07, BB raises to $88


Turn is for sure debatable but i think river is more interesting.

If i see his ck raise on the turn pretty polarizated is checking back river reasonable??

Clear fold now?

ship it in,I like your bet sizing on turn and river

Fold>call>>>>>>ship

Fold>call>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>s hip

what????
is this another "funny" level??
bet more on flop and turn but you could check back flop also
def no ship on river

under no circumstances should you ship...call is probably appropriate if play has been aggressive, but hand range is definitely polarized.

How many hands have you played against him? What is his oop vpip? What is his fold to flop cbet? Do you have any idea what types of hands he 3 bets with preflop?

Without more information the replies are basically just going to be guesses.

Turn sizing sucks, and don't bet the river if you don't know what to do when raised, especially not with this sizing

when he thinks, that your calling range on turn is basically flushdraw / Ax / Qx and thinks, you are going to bet/fold river even with Ax then he can pretty much c/r that river with any hand and you are never calling, since you are probably going to 3bet that turn with sets or 2pairs often...

If you thinks, he can think something like that, it might be more a call... But he can also think, that you mostly have Ax for calling turn and doesnt think, you are just going to call a bet with Ax on river, so he goes for the c/r to get more value cauz he doubts, you fold Ax...

I apologyze but that's not a hand of mine and was posted on another forum without further info.

What's the range we are expecting him to ck/raise turn that are ck calling river and muck?!
I don't see much flopped 2pairs in reg's OOP defending range and i expect him to fast play them on the flop often.

Insta call.

The river bet is marginal if not EV- . What are you trying to get value from?

If you bet to get him to spazz with his missed draws, then snapcall this.

If you bet for value, you are doing it wrong.

A valuebet needs to get called by a worse hand 50%+ of the time, are you expecting him to c/r worse for value on the turn or call you on the river with a counterfit 2p?

River is a brick, his range to check (correctly or not) this river is often polarized to missed draws and boats (or maybe Q7s if he defends that).
He doesnt have 50% of bluffcatchers (and hes not calling 100% of the time with them) in his river range. Unless you have reads that will make you think otherwise.


Btw, bet bigger on all streets.

So you're never bet/folding to a random?


seems pretty nitty not be betting the top of our Ax range

You are expecting him to call with?

Please tell me a range that c/r the turn and c/c the river.

Its not about nittines, to valuebet we need him to actually have bluffcatchers that can call a bet, he has VERY few and hes not calling with them all the time.

So where is the value in a bet?

If we're betting it should be to induce. We have very little air/bluff range, he literally no c/c range. So we're checking back AK which is fairly high up in our range. Having a mega strong betting range isn't a mistake in this spot where we have a small bluffing range, and most importantly villain really doesn't have a c/c range (so it doesn't even matter if our range is unbalanced). So now we have to decide whether it's worth betting to induce a check/jam from air. It's probably not alot of time at these limits. Against this guy maybe it is worth chucking out a half pot and hope for some spaz, so don't fold as played. You guys should think more carefully about betting the river if you think it's standard/mandatory. Vivel made some good points too.

When I see most villains check this river after betting the turn, I feel like he's given up. That is, I see it almost like he's thinking, "Ok, villain is calling almost all the time with Ax here, I need to bet my nut hands." When he doesn't bet, it makes his polarized turn c/r range look more like the like air I guess.[edit: Ok, I see at least one point: like you were saying, he has no calling range on the river] It also feels "mandatory" generally because we have trips, top kicker w/ no straight or flush possibilities and many of the nut possibilities aren't always in his range (AQ was 3b, and A4 may have been a fold).

Where is the mistake in my thinking?

fake edit: (No sarcasm)

Actually, didn't see this post. Pretty much points out the mistake in my thinking. Not betting still feels off here since there's so few hands that can beat us...

I get your explanations khal and vithel but I'm curious as at what range we put him on for a ch/r on this turn that has us crushed given the agro game flow description.

AQ would three bet often only one combo of A4s and 3 of A4o which may just call in an agro game although I think if villian is decent a4 becomes a 3bet rather than a call, or is this completely wrong ( this is just a vacuum question ) I understand it changes as we adjust.

3 combos 44 which I have no idea what villian does with small pp's 3 combos of 77 and of course I almost forgot A7 which if it is OS widens his value range on the river to include A8 A9

And I think we can discount QQ pretty easily. This isn't a big range but there isn't really a bluffing range at all aside from 56 which has 4 combos if suited and 16 if not ( combo numbers may be wrong it's late & I'm writing fast)

I think we could add A10 and maybe AJ to his value range assuming he doesn't 3bet them often and which allows us to safely call. Although if we need to balance vs this player wouldn't we need to shove this hand to incorporate a bluff range in this spot?

We look very polarized here so villains raise otr is a very cheap way to bluff in this particular situation especially since alot of us think a fold here is good. But that was obviously obvious I think.

I'm not very good at writing out the equations and am not around stove do could anyone figure the amount of bluffs and worse value that villian has to have in order for this to be break even. I kno it's very small but how small?

yeh i think vithel's post is spot on here. very cool hand to post.

Let's take an example. I bet every1 of you is facing fish on a daily basis betting river missed/nutso/thin value OTR and you have almost no caling range that is worse then his hand, and you don't go for check-raise bluff, because fish won't bet/fold for value enough of the time. My point is, average not bad not terrific reg at NL100 will not take this line as a bluff, hoping you fold trips, when IRL no regs capable of folding this at NL100, only people in strat threads saying they do.

2nd point, hero's bet OTR is good in overall metagame and he knows what he's doing. Hero bets only half pot, so he doesn't care much if villain doesn't have much of a calling range, cos villain is rarely ahead either. Hero's neutral bet in itself is fine to keep agression, keep hands non-shown to villain and has to work only 1/3 of time as a bluff also. If hero bets without knowing what to do to check-raise bluff he can safely assume IMHO (correct me if im wrong), that just simply fold and move on and still have not a losing strategy and kee villain guesstimating your river bets range.

I fold. We don't beat anything he could have for value and he's just not taking this line as a bluff. Also, I would prefer to reraise smallish on the turn.

Villain has nuts like everytime. Some time I guess he can have the second nuts. He has no balanced range, no bluffing range and he expects hero to make a bad call w Ax or smaller FH.

And yeah, he gets a huge amount of folds here against strong players, but it's very very difficult to make an assessment that someone is a very strong player. He could be wrong. That's why he isn't bluffing. He is stacking a ton of players here, just not us. We could be knowing how to play, but still be weak players and call this off. That's why "blablabla getting folds blablabla we be getting exploited" is just silly here.

Valuable thoughts itt. Thanks op.

I'll add that that even if I went for a value bet OTR because I saw some spazz value, I'd prefer a much much smaller sizing to actually induce a bluff here. Your riv sizing is essentially turning your hand face up, and it's very tough and extremely unprofitable (would you bet this with a boat?) to balance this properly.