Villain called the 3bet relatively quickly, so I doubt he has AA/KK.

Villain was 33/15/50% AFq over 77 hands. (later on PT3, how do I access stats on each street like when I click on their HUD in game? Right now I'm just going to their Details page on PT3's player search)

Call 3bet was 4/7=57%, and villain looked fishy so I 3bet for value. W$SD is also 57%.

AFq per street:
Flop - 44% - 28 hands
Turn - 50% - 7 hands
River - 100% - 4 hands

Cbet is standard imo.
Totally WTF at the flop. Giant raise from fishy-looking villain BUT not that passive - 50% AFq. Additionally 77 hands isn't that much to be honest. Would be much more comfortable with like 300 hands at least.

Is he ever raising a Q, or a PP here trying to charge draws? raise is really big and doesn't look like he wants a call.

Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $10.73
BTN: $7.81
SB: $10.00
Hero (BB): $27.43
UTG: $21.75
MP: $10.67

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A Q

UTG raises to $0.25, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, UTG calls $0.55

Flop: ($1.65, 2 players) T T Q
Hero bets $1.23, UTG raises to $5.00, Hero ?

anybody? should I have flatted pre? should I not have cbet flop? should I just fold pre?! (kidding of course but seriously would like some input)

Turn off auto import in poker tracker 3 and you can get HUD popups when reviewing hands in the replayer.

More preflop at our depth.

I think I can find a fold on the flop. A big bet size is, IMO, usually a value tell, especially if you haven't seen him do it before in 77 hands.

this

I wouldnt put too much thought into your HUD over 77 hands. I mean, his street by street agro doesnt mean much when you are 200 deep BB/UTG getting raised huge on this board.

Think about what hands call preflop and then raise this board that we beat, in terms of your opponents tendencies?

As for value 3betting, im not sure about it tbh. I wouldnt 3b because their open is only 15% and they are raising UTG so our 3b looks really strong and it might tighten their range up enough for us to not have an equity edge going to the flop. Really not sure what the regs consider standard here so im all ears

That's true I guess but I need as much info as I can get here.

IMO he can have AsKs,AsJs, KQo, KQs, KJo, KJs, maybe J9o and J9s? I mean he calls 3bets so much that I don't put any of those outside his range.

well they might be in his preflop calling range but how do you think he reacts to your bet with those hands?

Those were all the hands I thought were possible he could raise with. More hands that he just flats with are probably JJ, 99-any smaller PP, QJs. QJo, maybe any 2 SC spades.

well if you think his whole raising range is draws then why dont you go allin?

im not advocating shoving fwiw just want to hear what you think

Sorry I didn't mean the first range I posted was his entire raising range, just the part that I beat (you asked which ones I beat).
For his whole raising range including value, it would prob add QQ, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9. I don't shove because I don't know if he calls a shove with a FD or a bare Q. In fact I don't know what he would do at all here barring some obvious ones (like most likely raising a T). I'm lost.

I guess it would be helpful if I could interpret the stats better, which is why I gave that many haha. From what I know, <40% is passive, 40-60 is average, 60+ is very aggressive. Is that right? What other stats would help me here?

ye ye my bad lol not concentrating enough!

Ok, so you think his semi bluff range is AKss/AJss/KJo/KJs/J9o/J9s

You say his value range is QQ/AT/KT/QT/JT/T9

Given these estimates we can see our equity


---
68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec

Board: Qs Ts Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.103% 35.90% 00.21% 24521 141.00 { AhQd }
Hand 1: 63.897% 63.69% 00.21% 43507 141.00 { QQ, AsKs, AsJs, ATs, KJs-KTs, QTs, J9s+, T9s, ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo, J9o+, T9o }


---


As you can see, doing anything other than folding here is very -EV.

Im not sure if your ranges are right but thats your job as a poker player to figure them out to some degree of accuracy, especially after 300 odd hands.

Can you elaborate on the first part? How do we know its -EV? Seems a little nitty to be folding TPTK to one raise though. If this was 100bb I'd probably be getting it in easy.

well this is the calculation


(0.36 x $20) - (0.64 x $20) = $14.4 - $25.6 = -$6.1


Given your range estimates, when we stack off we win $20 36% ott and lose $20 64% ott, so overall we end up losing $6.1 over a large sample.

It is only weak to fold the your hand if you think you are ahead, if you do the math and are behind, then folding is optimal.

My interpretation of the hand is that they are much stronger than the range you give them. This raise size is huge and just looks like he wants a ton of money in because you are deep. Btw I said you should know more in 300 hands but failed again because you dont have that many hands lol. was thinking of a different thread sorry, not on game today

Oh, then yeah I understand what you mean by -EV then. I thought you meant both shoving and calling are always bad vs a particular hand but vs range as a whole its overall bad.

My thoughts were basically that I was either crushed, vs a T, or flipping vs a monster draw. TBH I was probably really stretching it to put J9o and KJo in his range. I ended up folding mostly because I didn't know wtf to do.