Hi, what sizing is right in theory and why? thanks
btw: I use two sizing
1/3 (merged range)
2/3 (monster/bluffs) What do you think about it? Thanks


SB: $10.00 (100 bb)
BB: $6.39 (63.9 bb)
UTG: $12.89 (128.9 bb)
MP: $12.40 (124 bb)
CO: $14.59 (145.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10.00 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q A and 7 7

3 folds, Hero raises to $0.23, SB raises to $0.79, BB folds, Hero calls $0.56

Flop: ($1.68) 4 7 A (2 players)
SB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.28) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero??

With AQ I don't mind pot controlling a street and checking and with 77 I'm definitely betting like 2.25. I want to make it look like I'm stealing the pot and I think the larger sizing achieves that appearance.

Unless he's checking AK a lot I don't see the point in pot controlling. AQ is going to be a fat value bet vs. almost everyone here.

+1 he doesnt check his strongest hands but he could check some weaker Aces

I just think that his turn check is very polarized. Either he's going for a check raise or folding most turns so I think I'd like to keep his range as wide as possible and maybe just call a bet or bet myself on the river if checked to. I just hate the idea of being check raised here because I feel like I'd be getting owned too much.

I don't really see why opponent would want to check raise turn pretty much ever. The check seems pretty capped, so we can value bet like 1/2, and shove river with both hands.

The reason I might check is if I think villain is check/folding a really high % (which, to be fair, is true for a lot of players). But then the kind of hands that check/fold turn probably aren't putting money in whatever I do.

I kinda like checking the turn with AQ as well. Agreed that villain is likely super polarized with hands that will call 0-1 more bets or the nutted hands. We pot control against the nuts and can still get a bet in on the river against a weaker ace. We also give villain another chance to bluff with air or to make the second best hand on the river and call a hand that they would fold now.

I bet both at like 60% PSB or so.

Just feel like AQ is a little too high up in our range to want to value check. We can still potentially get two streets of value against AJ. Maybe AT.

That's why I like a check on the turn... AJ and AT will still call a bet on the river but those are really the only targets we have with our hand. I just think more often than not we're getting folds on the turn with a bet and if we check and feign weakness we might get a bluff on the river. Or we just bet ourselves when checked to They'll most likely still fold the river but you know... yeah.

What hands are you targeting that: bet flop, would check/fold turn, check/call or bluff river?

^^^ Not saying its a good play but lets just leave it up to the villain to bluff the river with KJ or JQs or something like that. Or they can spike a pair and call our bet on the river when they would certainly be folding now.

I'd bet ~$1 with both.

Weakish aces like A2, A3, A5, A6, A9, 88+ might certainly take this line if we just call flop and check back turn.

I just think that our AQ is too strong on this board to x back turn. The flop is super dry and villain needs to x/c wide to not allow us to bet ATC profitably. When he checks flop we can pretty much cap his range to weakish Ax and PPs (sometimes slowplayed sets but less likely) as the general population c bets way too much and doesn't really protect their checking range with strong holdings. The turn doesn't reqlly change that much, he still needs to call with things like AT, TT etc. You can x back a bad river, like a club or a 6, but I'd be betting for thin value on a blank river myself after stabdard 60-70% sizings on flop and turn.

77 just bet bet bet, I wouldn't be messing around with checking and raising stab attempts when his most likely holdings are pretty much begging to get to a cheap showdown when he checks flop as the pfr.

You think he's check/folding all those Ax?

I think it's certainly possible in a 3bet pot where we barrel 2 streets as the preflop caller. Our range looks like a fairly strong ace I'd say.

We didn't barrel, we called a c-bet.

You're right, my bad. Regardless still looks like an ace most of the time.

with which hands that we want to bluff OTT are we calling the flop?
I think i float too little on Axx boards in 3bet pots. It just feels weird to float when Villain has such a huge range advantage

I don't float nearly enough on Axx textures either.

Regardless, if villain is going to c/f weak Ax's at a high frequency OTT, then I would imagine the exploitative adjustment is not to value check strong Ax's OTT but to float flop super wide, right?