BTN is a good reg:
21/16/1.9(2500)
3bet BTN: 10%
fold to 4bet: 57%
fold to donkbet: 21%
CB F 3bp: 63%
T agg: 22%

BB is a fish:
58/10/2.3(175)

I wonder what would be the best line to extract from BTN?
And what about preflop? is calling the 3bet acceptable here? It is less than 10% of his stack, but he might not pay me off often enough?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($9.90)
BB ($3.23)
UTG ($9.60)
Hero ($21.09)
CO ($9.77)
BTN ($10.60)

Dealt to Hero 8 8

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN raises to $1, fold, BB calls $0.90, Hero calls $0.70

FLOP ($3.05) 8 7 9

BB checks, Hero ?

Leading is nice here. c/r isn't terrible either but I'd expect BTN to check behind pretty often and we risk the board getting even worse.

And what about preflop? is calling the 3bet acceptable here? It is less than 10% of his stack, but he might not pay me off often enough?

I think it's OK because the price is good enough (his 3bet is too small imo), there's the fish in the pot and you close the action, i.e. you're sure to see the flop.

seems fine, i'd lead close to pot. C-r would be good too cuz if btn cbets fish is calling a lot with all kind of crap and we win more but board is so ugly that i'd lean towards donking

well you have a chance to get stacks in but if you set mine with a PP you have to get their stacks every time you do so or close to it.

i think you can c bet the flop pretty often. checking is probably bad because if BTN has a marginal hand he is going to check it often because there is a SS in the hand and he might just go ape **** and is more likely to call. plus it is muti way. so just bet flop is fine.

i dont expect you to get much value here actually. and your probably not getting stacks. unless hey hit some kind of draw. the board is so wet people are folding marginal hands a lot more i think.

you could check and decide on the turn what to do but i dont expect you to get value unless a K or A comes then you can stack off. but checking the flop then trying to play for stacks on the turn will send red flags off to a reg. you best way to get stacks is if he hits a card a pair on the turn. just hope he is spewy really.

Since he 3bets 10% you're probably not gonna get his stack everytime. If he were to cbet more often, I'd check and let him cbet, and hope for the fish to call. Then I'd probably raise it a bit because of the scary board. The fish is probably gonna stay in the pot anyway with any draw, so you would get great value from him.

In this case I would donk, around 2/3 of the pot. If the BTN has an overpair you can expect him to raise. Maybe he'll raise a bluff too, or maybe you can keep the fish in the pot. There aren't too much value in this hand, unless BTN actually has a good hand.

preflop is fine because of the fish in the pot - if everyone had folded back around to you it's best to just fold then

i would just lead the flop here. the reg wont fold an overpair, but is very likely to check back all his air here because of the flop texture and the multiple opponents (including fish) in the pot

edit: just noticed the fish only has 30bb or so - probably just fold pre then

+1

Given that the fish has 30bb and the BTN has a 10% 3b range from the button, I don't think we'll get paid off often enough to make the PF call profitable.

Uhhh am I the only one who might shove this pre? I expect fish to sometimes call me with worse or flip and I expect BB to fold all the time. I'm just not a fan of calling here to set mine, we are OOP to the pfr (even tho we have position on fish). I just don't see this being profitable. I don't like calling and I don't like folding but I don't think shoving is bad for a few reasons...

I expect to take it down a huge amount of the time, the TAG with 10% 3bet is getting out of line, and because he is on the button his range is very very wide. Sure you'll run into top of BB's range sometimes but most of the time he's just doing this with some weakish broadway (with great equity against your hand). Be aware that the TAG often here does not have a hand he is happy to stack off with unless he has TTP+. So calling to set mine against him isn't a good idea.

I think he does this with JKs,KQs,JTs,98s,78s type hands pretty often... and obviously monsters too.

I think you get the TAG to fold out all hands that have 50% equity against you and probably fold JJ here too as long as you haven't got out of line. The fish will fold all his weak crap but can still call you with worse..

I've seen fishy players call shoves with 22+ often enough, he has 3bet before aswell so you can assume his range isn't very strong, JJ/AQ at best.

I dunno... seems to me a good place to shove and take down the pot a huge percent of the time where your equity and implied odds would normally be pretty bad here... I could be wrong though?

Anyway, without getting fancy and shoving once you get to this flop I think betting is ideal just because a c/r will look very strong to the TAG and get him to fold any over-card draw type hands that you can get value from. And if either of them has a high pocket pair, you get it in on the flop. Whereas if BB has TT/JJ he would probably check here, if TAG has something that missed or something like KJs he might just be inclined to check. Then they can pick up more equity against you etc etc

I don't think this board completely misses TAGs range and obviously the fish can have a lot of pair/draw type hands that he is calling a bet with. So just value bet 3 streets and be careful if fish shows aggression when draws hit.

I also just realized fish had 30bb...

Which makes it more for me a shove just because I really really doubt BB is calling often at all (and when he does, we are often flipping) and I'm sure fish this short stacked will call us with worse or flip. Or just fold his hands that have good equity against us.

Just for some perspective I think fish would call a shove with:

A2s-A5s
22+
AQ
AT

and I don't think QQ+ is in his range, because you've seen him 3bet. So I think you really only have to worry about 99+ here.

TAGs range here like I said I think consists of something like:

76s,87s,98s,T9s
JJ+
A9s+
AJo+
QJs,KJs,KTs,QTs,JTs

And I think his calling range is only ~AK/QQ+ maybe JJ so he can only call with 1/5th of what he is 3betting with.

I'd like to hear what others think though

Dint,

10% is BTNs (TAGs) 3bet exactly from BTN, not overal.
I didn't see BB 3betting, don't know where did you get that information from

BB is a fish:
58/10/2.3(175)

what is third stat?

even if it is only 10% from button, the range I gave is correct.

AF

I think it's close between leading and c/r. If the reg has bare overs he isn't going to cbet that's obvious. But he isn't going to call a donkbet or bluffraise it either because the SS fish is in the pot. And we aren't that scared of giving the reg a free card because he doesn't have that many draws and if he has a strong draw, he is prob going to cbet (well not necessarily).

In any case on a board this wet he is stacking off to a c/r with his overpairs but unless he is reasonably aggro and not weaktightish he might just call our donkbet with JJ or smthn and fold to further action.


Just playing devil's advocate. I think leading still is prob better, but c/r has it's merits.

I think this is a pretty solid estimation of the ranges we're up against. I wouldn't necessarily include the SCs as much in the TAGs range because this 3bet of a UTG+1 raiser is usually for value. I think he's more likely to flat these suited connected hands and play the pot in position. As far as his range for playing for stacks here, he's not a great player if he'll stack off with anything less than TT or 99. I wouldn't even stack off here with AA being that if you stove these players ranges you're either crushed or flipping for stacks. I think overall it's a -EV play.

That said if he's capable of stacking off with an over pair I would lead this board because a C/R looks really strong and might blow him off an over pair. I would bet the flop hope to get called in 2 spots, hope the turn bricks off and bet again setting myself up to where the pot allows me to jam any river. Plus some percentage of the time donking here will get you raised by really aggro opponents in which case you can try to get it in on the flop.


Edit: You have to call $.70 more and you're 7:1 to hit a set which means you have to win $4.90 to break even here. Being that your OOP and the fish is short this has to be an automatic fold pre.

I'm pretty sure c/r is a better line here against an overpair versus most uNL Tags. The board is drawy so he really has to cbet with an overpair and when we raise we can have a lot of pair+ draws, draws etc. I don't think 1/20 uNL TAGs fold an overpair here to a shove but many of them will flat with an overpair if we donk.

Maybe I am projecting some of my thoughts onto this uNL TAG but I am worried about him checking back a lot of his range if he doesn't have an over pair here in a 3 way pot. You are right about the C/R line if BTN has a big pair but his BTN 3Bet range includes a lot of over card combo's so I'd rather lead for value than C/R and hope he has the big pair because he may call with 2 overs and we'll get more value than if he checks back the 2 overs. Plus he may even raise with the over pair. I see leading as getting value from both overs and bigger pairs where C/R's only get value from the pairs.

Especially if a A, K or Q hits on the turn. You may get 3 streets from 2 overs the same way you would get 3 streets from a big pair.

im leading this flop one hundred percent of the time. with pot being $3.50 I would make it ~2.50. expecting Button to call with his low fold to donk bet.% You would be missing value by checking . I think it was stated before that button very well could check this scary board back and you lose a street of +EV

I agree with c/r having merit but I dont think it's the best line. I would expect Button with overs to call down three streets where as if we c/r we expose our hand and give button an opportunity to play perfectly. Assuming he folds if he's as solid as OP says. Also leading gives shortstack an opportunity to c/r if he has a good hand or call and we gain more value. If button does have a hand like AK he isnt putting more money in the pot anyway or maybe he still calls since he has a low fold to donk bet %

I can see why shoving pre could make sense but there are a lot of variables that could easily make it -EV (reg can have nutted hands, fish could just fold his 44 or ATo or w/e he has, etc) that I think flatting is fine, even with fish only having 30bb.

I lead flop

you have a set so you gotta start pumpin the pot