nl10 facing river bet w/ Q high trips - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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nl10 facing river bet w/ Q high trips

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10-31-2016 , 06:52 PM

BreJohn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 339

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37478129

BTN: $6.99 (69.9 bb)
SB: $7.78 (77.8 bb)
BB: $42.35 (423.5 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $10 (100 bb)
CO: $12.70 (127 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) J

(3 players)
SB bets $0.43, BB calls $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

Turn: ($2.19) K

(3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40, SB folds

River: ($4.99) 5

(2 players)
BB bets $2.60, Hero?

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28/23(75 h), 3bet 5,7(35), sq 0(6), aggr 33

This is close call/fold right? How do we decide what to do here? If he bets J9+ and 2 bluffs (9Tdd, QTdd) it's a call, otherwise it's a fold, but we are not computers so how do we decide vs a relatively unknown player? Play it safe and fold?

Ok, you will propably tell me that he wouldn't bet with J and a kicker smaller than Q but how can we be sure?

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10-31-2016 , 06:54 PM

Yoshimiii

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 7,669

Pretty easy call imo. 9T, TQ is possible. TJ is possible. You lose to like 9-11 combo's and you getting great odds for the amount of potential bluffs, worse Jx he has.

If he potted it then it's different, cause that's much more likely to be 88 going for value vs Jx or something

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11-01-2016 , 12:18 AM

whitemares

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,786

River should be a call. Pretty hard for villain to have better. No possible straights or flushes (but missed draws), and trips aren't easy to have either, let alone better ones.

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11-01-2016 , 04:41 AM

smetiardopici

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 305

why not raise flop?

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11-01-2016 , 04:53 AM

Yoshimiii

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 7,669

^ You could. I'd just expect a lot of folds cause we know that SB hardly ever has a jack when he half donks it. I'd honestly like being heavy on bluff raising here more.

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11-01-2016 , 10:08 AM

Haizemberg93

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 7,637

KJ AJ 88 J8s = 11combos
JT 9Js =5combos
+2combos of QJ
call looks ok

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11-01-2016 , 12:24 PM

KP24

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,494

I call this w/o thinking.

(btw he can have all T9s easily here as bluffs)

Remember you only need to be good 1 in 4 times to show profit here (well, slightly less)

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11-01-2016 , 01:46 PM

strikershank

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 1,457

my read is you're vs. another JX with some ~10-20% chance the villain's bluffing.

With the K on the turn, that blocks some KJ combos so i think river is an easy call as villain could also be leading with Kx or holding weak JX and thinking you could call off your KX range - his sizing indicates he wants medium strength calls on the river or weak hands to fold without risking to much.

Villains value range is probably AJ, KJ, JT, J9, J8, and maybe as weak as J7 plus some strong KX hands, then of course gican def have some bluffs as well.

Add it up, i think river is a call.

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11-01-2016 , 01:53 PM

papillon_

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,467

villain is not fullstacked. calling here all day

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11-01-2016 , 03:15 PM

#10

Yoshimiii

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 7,669

K/A are some of the best turn card too because they block and are "scare cards" in villain's eyes probably.

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11-01-2016 , 03:49 PM

#11

Meldras

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 118

Easy call given pot odds and the fact that he could be valuing worse.

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