nl10 facing 3barrels w/ 2 low pairs - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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nl10 facing 3barrels w/ 2 low pairs

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08-04-2016 , 04:32 PM

BreJohn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 339

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37408325

BTN: $16.43 (164.3 bb)
SB: $10.46 (104.6 bb)
BB: $10.16 (101.6 bb)
UTG: $9.99 (99.9 bb)
Hero (MP): $10.40 (104 bb)
CO: $10.47 (104.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.20) A

(4 players)
SB bets $0.74, BB folds, Hero calls $0.74, CO folds

Turn: ($2.68) 4

(2 players)
SB bets $1.66, Hero calls $1.66

River: ($6) T

(2 players)
SB bets $3.72, Hero calls $3.72

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Do you call river?

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08-04-2016 , 04:37 PM

proclies

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 144

(Ignore below reasoning, V stat has 0% 3B and is 16/9 and high cc %)

Snap river call lol.
You have the ace blocker and you only lose to a set. AJ would probably have 3bet from SB.
If we go by reasoning that he flatted AJ, you must add AQ and AK to his range alot of the time, which you beat. Would also add KQ, which could be a draw turned to bluff. J10 also fits.
I might raise turn check river.

River does seem valuey but you basically only lose to two hands, 44 and 66 based on line.
If you lost this hand its cooler

Honestly if you fold this hand you are thinking too much unless villian was huge nit

Last edited by proclies; 08-04-2016 at 05:00 PM.

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08-04-2016 , 04:38 PM

anaconda disease

adept

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 789

Any reads?

I call versus some fold versus others

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08-04-2016 , 04:40 PM

BreJohn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 339

villain: 16/9, 22 aggr in 200 hands, cc: 10(12) from sb

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08-04-2016 , 04:44 PM

proclies

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 144

Quote:

Originally Posted by BreJohn

villain: 16/9, 22 aggr in 200 hands, cc: 10(12) from sb

3b %?

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08-04-2016 , 04:49 PM

5890

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 53

ez call come on bro really

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08-04-2016 , 04:50 PM

proclies

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 144

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5890

ez call come on bro really

Based on stat might be fold, line is just weird

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08-04-2016 , 04:53 PM

BreJohn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 339

Quote:

Originally Posted by proclies

3b %?

3bet: 0(59) and the hands I have are 166 to be precise!

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08-04-2016 , 04:57 PM

proclies

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 144

Quote:

Originally Posted by BreJohn

3bet: 0(59) and the hands I have are 166 to be precise!

Fold river.
No line here makes sense to triple barrel except a set or AJ. Given V stats don't think he would ever triple barrel with anything but A10+

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08-04-2016 , 05:00 PM

#10

BreJohn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 339

Couldn't he have A4s?

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08-04-2016 , 05:04 PM

#11

proclies

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 144

Quote:

Originally Posted by BreJohn

Couldn't he have A4s?

He can but its like way lower% chance he has A4s than other hands.
Either way a call is not terrible and it is a cooler. Given his stats clear fold

The hands he 3 barrels are JJ 66 44 AA AJ A6 A10 A4.

You lose to all combos but one which is A4, but is he really donking you with that sizing OTF?

Although it is a fold, but I probably would have called cause i'm terrible. Hard to make the right decision in a short time

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08-04-2016 , 05:10 PM

#12

mahsjdi

veteran

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 2,432

Have to fold river vs a nit. Unless you think he takes this line with AQ AK otherwise we don't really beat any of his value range. T otr is awful is well because KQ and AT now beat us.

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08-04-2016 , 05:58 PM

#13

R00Tee

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 559

Ummm.....raise flop?

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08-05-2016 , 12:29 AM

#14

anaconda disease

adept

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 789

Raise flop does make good sense.

Can get value from ax and possibly even some Jx, Kk, qq

Plus we charge KQ

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08-05-2016 , 04:38 AM

#15

lovelessRAGE

adept

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 725

Vs his weighted range you have not enough equity to call:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

16 trials (Exhaustive)

board: A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ac6c	31.25%	5	0
AJ,66,Ad4d,AdQx,AdKd,AdTd,JJ	68.75%	11	0

Since you need 3.72/(3.72+6) * 100% = 38%.

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08-05-2016 , 05:14 AM

#16

Shamway99

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 3,348

Quote:

Originally Posted by lovelessRAGE

Since you need 3.72/(3.72+6) * 100% = 38%.

No you need 3.72/(3.72*2+6) * 100% . Potsize bet needs eq 33%, this is surely under 30. Ofc it is difficult to estimate our real equity in this spot, easily can be close to 0% when SB donks only strong hands 3way.

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08-05-2016 , 05:42 AM

#17

Bladesman87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 14,543

Would probably knock A4 out because I don't expect it to donk, but I end up calling because I don't know why he isn't check/raising better.

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08-05-2016 , 06:40 AM

#18

BreJohn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 339

After some thought I am sure this is a fold! If there is a chance he bets A4 and A6 otf there is a chance to bet KQs too so we don't have the odds to call!
Also, if he only bets big hands otf then there isn't 1 hand I beat otr apart from AKos. But he has to bet all his AKos to be a profitable call so it is a FOLD

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08-05-2016 , 06:55 AM

#19

BreJohn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 339

Quote:

Originally Posted by R00Tee

Ummm.....raise flop?

I don't think there is a reason to raise vs this guy in this spot. He doesn't have KQ in his betting range and if he does have it he probably won't call a raise because it will show big strength to raise there with a guy behind me and 4way. He maybe call with AK but we won't get more value by raising otf than betting turn or river if he checks

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08-05-2016 , 08:24 AM

#20

R00Tee

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 559

Quote:

Originally Posted by BreJohn

You really can't know what he has in his betting range. People who donk on an A high flop multi way are usually just clueless button clickers. And clueless button clicker will talk themselves into calling with all kinds of nonsense.

This guy seems on the nitty side for sure so calling is also fine. But i dunno, it's just my natural inclination to raise donk bets like this whenever I can.

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08-05-2016 , 08:25 AM

#21

lovelessRAGE

adept

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 725

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shamway99

No you need 3.72/(3.72*2+6) * 100%

Sorry, my bad. I calculated fold equity needed if we bet 3.72 into 6.

27.67% equity needed in this spot. So i think it's a slightly +EV call (after rake).

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