Villian 17/2/Flp AF3 about 50 hands-very straightforward.

I think I push this most, if not all, of the time. I am starting to think that pushing automatically in situations like this, may not be as profitable as calling. I am thinking this, partly, because there is almost no FE at this limit. With the majority of these players, even if the obvious draw comes, they are going to call with TP, and sometimes even less. Is my thinking about this all wrong. Pushing these big draws at this limit can't be as profitable as pushing them at a higher limit. I just put this hand up as an example of situation. Also encountering this at 25NL too. Comments-suggestion?


Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP2): $10.35
CO: $4.80
BTN: $1.20
SB: $8.50
BB: $9.70
UTG: $3.25
UTG+1: $31.75
MP1: $6.15

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with T J
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, SB calls $0.05, BB checks

Flop: ($0.50) 6 T 3 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.50, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $1.60, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 raises to $5.30, Hero raises to $10.25 all in, UTG+1 calls $4.95

It's no longer a question of FE when UTG+1 has already committed half of his [effective] stack on the flop. UTG is getting 3:1 here and will probably call any hand that he'd be willing to 3bet with. Thus, the relevant factor is the villain's range here. I think this is a fold here.

I hate going all-in on a draw. Especially when it is not even the nut draw. A-10 possibly. I think I just call flop bet from a known TAG

My guess is you have little FE against a better hand at 10NL (sets/JJ+/QT), and even at this level not many worst hands will call your raise.

I flat the flop and play poker.

If he has a set, you're worst than 2:1 dog there.

I dont think this is a big draw at all. You have a weak TP with a weak kicker and a draw to the J high flush. I dont really want to put my stack at risk on the flop with such a draw. At 25NL Im probably raising his bet 3x like you did here, but his reraise puts us in an awful situation. You pretty much have no FE here since anything Villain is willing to commit that much with he will call with.

Are people actually suggesting folding the flop after UTG+1 re-raises? I would not even consider that. I'm not saying it must be wrong, just that I would need someone to fully articulate the reasoning before I could even begin to think of it as a reasonable play. It just "feels" so wrong to me.

I can understand just calling the flop, keeping the pot small and seeing what develops on the next 2 streets as viable, but once Hero raises to $1.60 he's committed to get it all-in on the flop if faced with another raise IMO.

UTG+1 is telling you with his reraise that he has TT+.

Board: 6s 3s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.647% 45.65% 00.00% 9942 0.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 54.353% 54.35% 00.00% 11838 0.00 { TT+ }


No way he is folding after that reraise. You are getting about 2-1 on the call, but as you say, all the money is likely going in on the turn anyway, so in the end, you are flipping for your stack when you are likely behind . . . not a good way to do business. You can find a better place to get your money in.

wow this thread has tilted me a ton

the only reason its close at all, is because the rake is gonna be 22BB

Ok, it is a weak TP and no, not the nut FD. Why is this a big draw anyway? Besides the obv. FD we can make trip tens, or 2-pair to beat hands villain could have in his range. Given our opp. doesn't like raising much pre-flop, he could easily hold an overpair here and the worst case scenario range you could assign to mister 17/2 is sets and overpairs:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

27,720 games 0.005 secs 5,544,000 games/sec

Board: 6s 3s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.284% 42.28% 00.00% 11721 0.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 57.716% 57.72% 00.00% 15999 0.00 { TT+, 66, 33 }


So, that makes it a click-hold while moving the sliderbar to the right allready! Now factor in some draws, 2-pairs (hey, its a limped pot, 63s can flop monsters too ) and brainfarts and you are putting in the chips ahead!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

79,200 games 0.005 secs 15,840,000 games/sec

Board: 6s 3s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.049% 59.56% 00.48% 47175 384.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 39.951% 39.47% 00.48% 31257 384.00 { TT+, 66, 33-22, AsKs, T8s, T6s, T3s, 63s, 54s, T8o, T6o, T3o, 63o, 54o }


I wouldn't call the flop, because you'll get it in on the turn anyway, but if the turn is a blanc, it won't be with as much equity against the same range (allthough still about 50%) and opp. might still choose to fold when you hit your third spade...

So, you think OP should stack off with this? In the absence of a strong read, I think I fold this flop. I don't mind shoving a hand like this myself, but calling a shove with this seems pretty edgy.

I'm always ready to improve my thinking on these things, so if you think I'm FOS, give me the benefit of your wisdom, Pooh-Bah. Seriously.

pretty standard imo

With no raise pf I don't think the villain flopped top set. Perhaps a lower set but people tend to overbet 88-JJ preflop at these stakes. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the top pair is good here. I think it's a close call that depends on your read on the villain, but I think either decision is arguable.

Wow. I'm sort of surprised by the replies. I push here and feel good about it all day long. I'd give myself the spade outs as well as the jack outs. If he's reraising, I wouldn't think so much set as much as his belief that I'm just on the flush draw. But I don't just have a flush draw, baby--I have top pair!

We're better than many hands that he's reraising with, as long as we're all in and have two outs to go.

Just curious--let's say you force a pro to sit at gunpoint at 10nl and you deal him this hand in this situation. What do you think he's doing here?

The way you played this hand is fine...once there is a raise you have to call because there is too much equity in the pot, and some of the times your opponent has a set of sixes you will have a set of Tens.

Nick, this is the key to your situation! There will be many situations where you see a T-high take down a flush, but these will usually be in cases where the hands are checked down and pot very small. Personally I would not even feel comfortable with a J-high flush draw. As panthro stated flat call and play poker from there on.

I seriously don't see how there could be a call here in this hand... just get it in after his reraise. And if people mean flatting the first bet by villain and 'playing poker' after that: what do you want to do? Bet-fold your J-high flush if you hit because it isn't the nuts? Fold on a blank turn? Call down to the river and then fold unimproved? Not to mention the value you might miss when ahead or when you make your hand. Ok, that's it, I'm tilted too now, please help?!

Calling the 3 bet on the flop is very silly. You aren't getting good enough implied odds to hit even if you get his stack and win every time if you're going to fold the turn because you're getting only ~3.5:1 on a 4.22:1 shot and as bottomset said the rake is going to kill alot of that anyhow. If you're not going to fold to a turn push you should push when your equity is the highest, which is the flop. If you do just call the flop you should fold the turn unimproved because with his push you're going to get 3.05:1 on a 4.11:1 shot.

I personally think you should fold to his 3 bet on the flop.

edit: I'm only counting our hand as a flush draw because calling the 3 bet on the flop implies (to me at least) that we're only playing for the flush.

guys its a big draw because if you limit his range to just sets and overpairs(way too tight) you still have 42.3% equity

remeber you are only putting 8.65 in to win 12.35 once you know he won't fold(before factoring rake) using the tight range you need 41.2% so folding would be bad in that spot, with 5% rake you need 43.4, so folding would be the play(if you have his range that tight) with 10% rake you need 45.8, so folding is clear vs that range

however I doubt his range is that tight, adding 6combos of NFDs jumps it to 44.5 and just 1combo of a weaker Tx hand jumps it to 45.8(1combo of T9 represents <3% of his range at that point for perspective, 2combos of T9 so 5% of the time he shows up with random worse T, the rest of the time he has overpair/set/nutfd and you are at 47% which is enough to get allin even with FT's attrocious rake

so rake is a huge factor at these stakes, breakeven at nl100 given same bb stacks is 41.8

I think its still +EV to get allin, just not as +EV as it should be

Thanks. I'd agree that the range I put the Villain on is pretty tight, and maybe he pushes lighter, but in the few thousand hands I have at this level, just about every time I've called in a situation like this I'm up against a set or an overpair at least. Most he can win is 10.75 (10.35 stack + 4 limps) /8.65 = 1.24 > 1.19 odds against the tight range, and that doesn't factor in the rake or any of the possible bigger flush hands.

If he can only win 10.75-rake, are we still +EV in your calculations?

Thanks for the explanation . . . you may be right, but check the numbers again.