I'm honestly not sure if if this is a BBV post or if I need to start considering laying down bottom/middle sets. In the past 3 sessions I've gotten stacked by oversets 6 times, ran Kings full into Quads, and had flopped Tens full of 6's run into a T's full of 9's on the turn (I had 66 he had T9).

Couple this with the times my AA gets cracked, I run KK into AA, and making the occassional miss step and my winrate is getting brutalized lately.

Do I need to learn to spot the over set better or am I just running into sick variance? 4 of the 6 times I ran into oversets I was virtually certain they must have had oversets because I couldn't see any other hand that would play back at me so hard.

Even though I was convinced they had oversets I called anyway because I'm not Miss Cleo the Psychic, and towards the end it just started getting laughable and I didn't think I could possiblely be running into an overset again.

So without posting a dozen hand histories I figured I'd just make one post and ask, when I have bottom/middle set on a board that doesn't offer any made straights or flushes am I just giving my money away to the overset every time or is there any situations where you just have to lay these down?

I NEVER ever lay down a set b/c I'm afraid of a better set. I may *occasionally* lay down a set on a super-scary board (e.g., 4 to a flush or str8).

IIRC, the probability of running into set over set is around 1/100 when it's HU before the flop. That's too rare to be concerned about it.

My feeling is you might be just running bad. But nevertheless, using your poker tracking software of choice, filter to see how you're doing with your small PPs. At times, I used to play 22-66 too liberally from EP, making those small PPs unprofitable for me. So now, I only play them when table conditions are favorable. Also, make sure that you're getting correct set-mining odds when calling from position with, say, 22-88. But you prolly know that..

EDIT: An exception would be the following: I could lay down bottom set when a nitty, set-mining player plays back at me super-hard in a pot that's been unraised pre and where multiple players saw the flop. But I just rarely ever play such a pot...

No, absolutely not.

What I meant was not that I assume they have an overset everytime, but when they do am I stacking off or can I ever find a fold?

No, you really can't find a fold, pretty much ever, in those situations. Your set is good a huge majority of the time, even when the money gets in. They're in with an overpair, TP/TK, or a draw much, much more often than they're in with a better set.

It's frustrating when you go on weird coolers when things happen like losing set-over-set four times in a thousand hands, but don't mistake variance for misplay. Especially at 10NL, a set is pretty much the nuts unless you're facing a 4-flush/4-straight.

At 10NL with all those strange people who call raises preflop with JJ and QQ to bet or raise any good flop, you can NEVER fold a set on a dry board. On a board like 234, a set of 2s is worth protection. Only heavy action makes you fold here. On a board like 289, your 2s are the Nuts. Period.

Simple logic: you have a set and you bet UNTIL you face resistance.

Example:

You have 22 and you Flop 2 Qd Td in position. It goes Check/Bet/Call. Turn is 8s. It goes Check/Bet/Call. River is 9d. If he donkshoves here, you fold. Nothing you beat and all you beat is too scared to suicide-shove here. If he checks you bet small. He NEVER bluffraise you here. He bluff-catch you with Q4s! And those who do bluff will SHOW it and then donate their stack to the table in the next two orbits.

Same Flop, but now it goes Check/Bet/Raise. What do you do? Unless you are 100000000BB deep, you never fold here. Your normal 10NLer will show up with Any Q, some Ts, QT, AA, KK and stuff like KdJd far too often. They have made hands and raise. Sometimes they have a stronger made hand, so be it then.


Just put it in. Math is on your side. I am, too. You cannot lose