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nl10 am I ever ahead? nl10 am I ever ahead?

08-08-2010 , 11:05 PM
Sb is 47/29 with 17% 3bet over 18 hands. He has been pretty aggressive post flop. Can an over pair ever behead when he shoves this flop?
Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $11.20
Hero (UTG): $10.87
CO: $8.94
BTN: $10.00
SB: $15.95

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30, SB raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, SB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.60) J 9 T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.20, SB raises to $14.85 all in, Hero calls $7.57 all in

Turn: ($22.14) K (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($22.14) T (2 players - 2 are all in)
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-08-2010 , 11:05 PM
occasionally
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 12:54 AM
The sample size you have on villain is very small, but they still give off a super-fishy vibe.
Don't know what the minraise pre is all about (usually means aces, but you got that covered.) I'd make it ~$1.50-.80 for the 4bet pre. On this flop villain can check shove with a fd or an oesd. If he has both it's pretty standard to jam flop. Either way I'd say you're ahead most of the time here against this type of villain.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 04:10 AM
Hmm. Hard to say. It's just such a dangerous board, that it's going to hit some of his hands really hard and some of them only a little bit. If he's as aggressive as you say, and playing as many hands as he is, he could have a lot of hands - some type of flush draw, QJ, Q10, Q9 maybe, AJ, KJ, KQ, J10, J9, 109, 87, 1010, 99, JJ etc. There's going to be a lot of hands he might do this with that you're currently ahead of, but you're flipping with, or hands that he's beating you with right now even. He doesn't have a tight range for doing this, so I think it's a close decision. I wouldn't be strictly against calling, but I think folding might be better. You could wait for a better spot... even though it sucks giving up a hand like this.

His 17% 3b weights his range here towards a lot of broadway cards and 'slightly' higher cards than weird hands like low suited connectors and such. Which basically, in my opinion, his range of hands here hit this board right in the face. You're going to call and be ahead some of the time, but this is going to be a high variance play.

Please feel free to disagree. :-)

Last edited by phate11; 08-09-2010 at 04:16 AM.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 04:14 AM
Yes.




And dont fold flop.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 05:15 AM
raise more pre, 4bet bigger pre, never fold flop
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 05:19 AM
4 bet much bigger pre. Dont fold flop against this guy.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 05:46 AM
After he shoves you're getting like 3.5 to 1, so it's a pretty easy call imo. He may have 2pair or a set, but he should also have a good amount of 1pair hands and combo draws that you're ahead of.

It's certainly not a great flop for you, but you're still getting the money in here.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 05:47 AM
Agree w/ 4betting bigger. at least $1.5-$2
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 08:05 AM
4bet bigger pre. Get stuck in.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 09:14 AM
flop minraise might just be a 47/29's "standard" size.

I think you have to go with this hand against these stats.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 04:09 PM
Thanks guys. I figured I would be ahead of most of his range here so I went ahead and called. I hadn't got any action on any of my other Aces during this session so I put in the small 4bet as to not lose action from both players (which I knew was a bad play when I did it.) I posted this hand because I wasn't sure if I should be calling in a spot where I'm either way behind or when I'm ahead it would be a high variance spot.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-09-2010 , 04:19 PM
Raise more pre!! This will set the flop up much better.
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-10-2010 , 05:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoshii
Raise more pre!! This will set the flop up much better.
agree
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-10-2010 , 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZephyrSpy
I hadn't got any action on any of my other Aces during this session so I put in the small 4bet as to not lose action from both players (which I knew was a bad play when I did it.)
Hope you remembered to burn yourself with a cigarette
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote
08-10-2010 , 06:41 AM
Your 4bet is tiny. Against multiple opponents you need to bump this up a bit more. On the flop I cant find a fold against this player. I know its only 18 hands but it appears he has been active in about 8 of those 18 hands which leads me to believe hes erring on the fishy side. sure, your likely flipping/behind some of the time but I think enough of the time you have enough equity to call his shove
nl10 am I ever ahead? Quote

      
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