And by "average player" I mean that BTN just joined the table and I had no hands on him. Therefore I'm playing against the average NL10'er. Who is probably around.. 35/25... So:

BTN: 35/25
SB is ultra loose passive: 70/5.


Regarding the 50c... At NL10, I normally open with 4x, with the occasional 3x to mix things up or serve a purpose.

I know this basic hand has been reviewed a million times. But how about if villains are 35/25 and 70/5?



Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $10.15
Hero (CO): $11.50
BTN: $9.85
SB: $9.90
BB: $3.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with K A
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, SB calls $0.55, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.00) 8 3 A (3 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, BTN raises to $9.25 all in

???

I am going broke here often because of the presence of the flush draw. If he is a nit or something I might find a fold.

A fold actually should be easier since you showed strength raising the donk bet and were the preflop raiser and he still came over the top on an A high board. This indicates fold equity was not a concern. Also, the fact he is on the button makes it less likely he has a flush draw as he might be more inclined to keep both you guys in the pot in position. But as you have no reads, I have no reason to think he is thinking this deeply...

Exactly.

It's silly, but I estimate that 30% of NL10'ers would take BTNs line with JJ-KK because they just couldn't lay it down, and because the pot is so big and tasty...

I was also somewhat concerned about SB's donkbet because he's so passive... oh, the HH got cut off. SB folded.

There are certainly some donks who will do that but they are not 35/25, they are like 50/1. Few people will slow play jj-kk and then come alive on an a high board into two other people.

btw, I don't ever consider the average 10NL'r to be 35/25. That's LAG stats. Most are limping/calling stations pre and post flop to greater and lesser degrees.

Incidentally, its probably +EV to lay down every time in this spot at 10NL. Generally giving people credit is the way to go at these levels when they are filled to the hilt with passive fit or fold villains. What I was trying to say with my initial post was that in the heat of the moment I would see the fd on board and call off to a set but that if you think it through this should be a set more often than a fd. You are not particularly great against that combined range btw (a range of sets and fd's).

Btw "no hands" was a mistake. I checked and actually had 2 hands on BTN villain.

With 35/25 I was averaging all NL10 players (just by my opinion)... I could be way off, but I don't think so. The PFR might be a bit high considering all the passives out there, but still.. there are tons of bad aggros too. Maybe 35/21 is closer.

Regardless, you bring up a good point... it does me no good to average all NL10'ers. Rather, I should average a few types... and do my best to figure out which type he is with the limited info I had.

For example,
I saw him fold his first two hands -- BB and SB. Fair indicator that he's not the type to do something crazy. It's not a lot, but it's better than nothing.

You bring up great points. Probably best to always lay this down unless I have a reason not to.

In fact, I might argue that it's more EV+ to lay this down in NL10 than it is in NL100... to not even waste time on TPGK in this situation @ NL10 because playing big hands better than opponents is a tremendous edge. Last summer I went from 70FPP to NL100, and if I remember correctly, this edge is biggest in NL10 (that or NL25, where the average player is super aggro without knowing quite what he/she's doing).

At NL100 there were far more players analyzing my line to make their decisions... it was a lot harder to get paid off with big hands.

So, maybe I should use this knowledge and stop getting stacked with a measly TPGK. :P

Thanks for your insight and assistance.

FYI I called and BTN indeed had 88.

Standard cooler - I wouldn't bother much about it really. Honestly against limp caller, I don't mind stacking this all day. If he has 35/25 stat, I would more get it in more often

I think he *might* be doing this with a weaker ace, or a set. Pre-flop bet invites in a lot of PP/AT+ IMO. You also have to consider that if he does have AA/88/33 that you would be drawing dead/very thin here, I might be inclined to fold, but it's a tough spot

I have been put all in on a flush draw board more times than I can count the last couple days, luckily my top 2, set and TPTK have held up more than half the time. Most notable was me 3betting with top two with 2 the a spade flush. 3rd guy went all in (only 3/4 of a stack, about 6-7 dollars) the next guy called and it only cost me 2 more to call. Both turned over all spades and my T2P held up.

The looser of the two probably has a flush draw, the other could have AQ or a set (most likely).