RFI is 33/30 over a small sample. Cold caller is 19/14 over 200

Vs RFI I am probably 3betting a wide range of [JJ+, AQs+, A8s-A2s, K9s-K6s, Q9s-Q8s, J8s-J7s, 97s, 86s, AKo, ATo-A9o, KJo-KTo, QJo] - 172 combos

After the guy donks into me, I woould have to defend 60%+ hands and will have both flatting and raising ranges. Given that villain is tight and cold-called preflop AND donks he probably is strong, so I will defend fewer combos, let's say ~45%.

OTF after removal I have 158 combos, I will defend ~70

Value raise range: QQ (3), AdKd (1), 6d8d (1)
Bluff raise: Jd8d, [Ad2d-Ad4d, Ad6d, Ad8d] (5) [Kd6d, Kd8d-Kd9d] (3)
Call: AA(3), KK (3), Jd7d, Ad7d, Kd7d, [Q8s-Q9s] (6), QJo (9), AQs (3), JJ(6), AKs (3), AKo (12), A7s (2), K7s (2), 68s (3)

Total combos raised: 14
Total combos called: 55
Total combos defended: 69
% defended: 44%

Thoughts: Wow, that is still a ****load of combos I need to defend. How do you feel about my going down from 60% defended to 44% defended? Is this enough to account for his stronger range? Should I go even lower? Maybe tighten up my 3betting range pre? As for my ranges do you think AKo is a good cadidate for a call, or maybe a bluff raise?

What's with all the needless calculations?

Lol at trying to balance vs a cold caller.

Well the only real calculations I made were 0,45*178 and some additions.

What I want to look at is how to react to a donk here without being exploited too much.

What line would you take on the flop and why?

You are not getting exploited

don't balance at NL10 imho

So, do I fold AKo here every time I miss?

^ Yes. His range is super polarized here anyway to TT+.

He's probably not even betting < Q here.

BB can't call ATC preflop and expect to get heads up everytime. CO can 4bet or call.

If BB knew that CO would fold and he'd get heads up vs you 100%, then you would need to defend an unexploitable amount.

Good point, how would you adjust the defending range in light of this info?

^ Why do you care about this?

There are 100's of other parts to work on your game that will improve BB/100 rather than worrying about this spot.

I doubt this is even relevant to know at midstakes..

Some people are stupid enough to play face up, even if they hit the nuts on this board.
Calling might have some reverse implied odds, if he has AQ. I think with A we could call here.
But i would just take a deep breath, make a note and start exploiting him!
19/14 guy is not exploiting you. Some super aggro gambler reg might wanna bluff his last money on spots like this, this guy isn't one of them.
Try to play and think the hand from his perspective. CO raises, BTN 3-bets 4x open and then this flop comes. If he donks 99 here, what hands are you folding? Is he just owning himself by donking weird stuff here?

His preflop range is way too strong for you to even consider defending that wide on the flop.

I wouldn't even do that tbh.

He has 0 bluffs in his range and because his range is so nutted folding is still best.

Also good point about reverse implied.

Also when we hit a king/diamonds, not like AQ is paying off either.

How about: if his flatting pre range looks like [QQ-TT,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo], (3) combos of QQ and (18) TP type combos are likely to lead.

I could go for only a raising range, no flat.

We could have a wider raise/raising range, I'd add AA (3), KK (3) to it

for a total of (11) raise/raise combos [QQ-AA, AK, 68]

Since I'll be raising a little smaller I can afford to have AK (16) hands in a raise/fold range that will retain some equity if called by TP type hand

for a total of (22) raise/fold combos [AKo, AKs, J8, A2-A4, A6, A8]

Sooo maybe a small raise would be profitable?

You're not defending a wider range by raising and raise/folding NFD,TPTK is pretty bad.

Your range for raising is way too strong and I don't think you should defend by raising in the first place.

Aaaand of course I counted AA and KK combos wrong earlier

r/r [QQ, 6d8d] (4)

r/f [Ac7c,As7s,Kc7c,Ks7s,Jc7c,Js7s,9c7c,9s7s,AhKh] (9) - 2nd pairs and a backdoor - they all have ~16 equity when called

call [KK-AA, AQs, AdKd, Ad7d, Kd7d, Jd7d, 9d7d, Ad2d-Ad4d, Ad6d, Ad8d] (25)

for a total of 24% flop range defended. Is that more reasonable?

you don't need a raising range here, it's useless, r/f anything is even worse

and you go completely beyond the fact that villain can easily have a really strong range here a large majority of the time. Not sure why he'd donk anything either... Just keep it tidy, you're kinda making a mess of it by over thinking.

I think this is a pretty good example of theorycrafting being a lot less useful than just thinking about the hand and coming up with a solution. No offense storczyk, but none of your range calculations are really that relevant here I don't think. You don't need a raising range that isn't nutted because you have no fold equity.

Got it, will move on.