UTG+2: $10 (100 bb)
MP1: $8.03 (80.3 bb)
MP2: $10 (100 bb)
MP3: $3.85 (38.5 bb)
CO: $10.17 (101.7 bb)
BTN: $25.06 (250.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $26.19 (261.9 bb)
BB: $12.07 (120.7 bb)
UTG+1: $26.52 (265.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, BB folds, MP1 calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.90) Q A T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, MP1 calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.10) J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.30, MP1 raises to $3, Hero ???????

Villain is 22/12/1.7 with 4.6% 3bet over 202 hands. His cbet% is 10% and fold to cbet 60% his fold to cbet on turn is 0% but this could be flawed because of samlpe size

I really wonder, I think I split at best.... but maybe there is already too much money in the pot? Whats the line?

Thoughts?

what a ****ty spot. I would prolly think when playing "oh, he's not a full stack and probably is a fish so I'll shove". But I think when we look at his range this is a fold huh.

Our odds. Effective stacks are $8.03. His turn raise is equivalent to an ai-raise. So think of him raising to $7.03 (i.e., an ai raise). So our pot odds are 10.43 / 5.73 = 1.82 : 1. That means we need to be good 35% of the time to break even (actually, it's roughly 1-3 percent more if we factor in rake).

His range. So he seem to fold to cbets mostly when he misses so his range consists primarily of "value"/non-bluff hands. Plus Baluga also applies here which again suggests there are mostly strong hands in his range. I think he will show up with

(1.) a number of flushes, hands like 8d7d-Td9d, Kd7d-KdJd (roughly, he might fold Kd7d pre, he might raise KdJd pre), perhaps Qd9d. I think he might sometimes raise with FDs OTF. Since he didn't raise the flop in this hand, we have to discount those flush hands a little bit.
(2.) KTo and, possibly, KJo (note: one third of the KTo and KJo combos will be on a freeroll)
(3.) possibly QdJx
(4.) I think every once in a while he will show up with other stuff we are ahead of (namely hands slowplayed pre or random bluffs).

Thoughts. I expect to see a good number of split pots (from those KTo and KJo hands in his range). And he's gonna win with some nontrivial frequency, whereas we are gonna win only rarely. Is it +EV to call? LOL I'm too lazy to do the rest of the math. Needless to say, you gotta factor in that in case of a split, we only win half the pot... I think I'm probably calling this during the heat of the game.

You have to push or fold here to charge his single diamond hands. Stoving it can be pretty close but only on the strictest range are you not getting the odds you need.

Board: Qc Ad Td Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.622% 00.00% 27.62% 0 158.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 72.378% 44.76% 27.62% 256 158.00 { KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KhQs, KsQd, KsQh }

If you think his SC don't go that low or that you can add a combo of KT or KJ plus extra spazz as he's a half-stack I think pushing is fine.

I have a hard time believing a 22/12 isn't raising his Kx hands here pre. I think his range is far more weighted towards suited connectors given that he limped. Had he raised pre then I'd be tempted to shove.

sorry missread if he's limping pre and is shortstacked I definitely think we can profitably stack off here

He is showing up with a lot of K imo that already have a made straight and a draw to the nuts.

hmm I folded.... split at best.. but maybe I had the odds to go all in, with al the dead money already into the pot