Hello everyone.

Villain is a reg of the level whom I have played a bit. Stats are over 4.4k hands.

27/20 AF 2.0 (2.4 : 1.9 : 1.3) F3B 54% 4BetRange 1.1% FCbet3betPot 50%
TurnRaiseCbet 26% (27).

I wouldn't know how to play this any differently. I though a c/c line ott could be better but that would leave me with basically a guess otr. Against a reg with this low AF is it always a fold when they fight back? I've seen him pull off a couple of stunts in the past which I noted but I think they are very much the exception.

What do you guys think?
Thanks everyone, cheers






[converted_hand][hand_history]Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37317663

BB: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $23.51 (235.1 bb)
CO: $10.40 (104 bb)
BTN: $10.77 (107.7 bb)
Hero (SB): $21.61 (216.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
MP raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB folds, MP calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.10) 3 3 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.99, MP calls $0.99

Turn: ($4.08) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2.12, MP raises to $5.24, Hero calls $3.12

River: ($14.56) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $16.28 and is all-in, Hero folds

I would call it off. Obviously not happy about the turn raise and you're going to see QQ, 55 and even the occasional 64s somewhat often but in general this is a decent runout for your hand and your range.

The idea is that unless you know for a fact that someone is an uncreative nit you gotta bluffcatch sometimes. Even for 200BBs. That's just the nature of the game.

The only consistent read that I have with this guy is that he raises turn too often, and this reflects in the stats. I know the runout isn't bad having the As but I just don't think him capable of turning a hand like TT into a bluff and go for a 150BB overbet bluff. But then again I was really 50-50 on calling or not.

I think u have to call! Do only thing in his range that can beat u are QQ right? He have alot of combinations like AQ,KQ and bluff! But Im not sure, you maybe made the right play

Not to nitpick, but the effective stack is 143bb on the river, so it's not an overbet.

That said, this looks super nutted and Villain actually has the stronger range. His 1.1% 4bet range means he is very unlikely to have AA-KK, but that he absolutely has QQ. His low fold to 3bet (and when he has opened from MP, it is probably even lower than the 54% average) also means that he can have 55 and 33. Finally, villain was semibluffing on the turn (unlikely but possible with 64s, A4s or a non-nut FD), absolutely every draw got there.

Hero's only nutted hand is exactly QQ, since hero shouldn't be 3betting 55 and 33 from SB vs this villain. Hero *might* have two combos of A3s and might play exactly AsKs this way, but that's a total of 6 combos better than AA that you can defend. Since you are going to have KK here as well as AA, you're going to be folding 2/3 of the time, when villain only needs you to fold 50% to profit from a bluff.

That said, if villain is hardly ever bluffing, I think you can fold. There aren't any missed draws for villain to bluff and like you say, I don't think I've ever seen a 10NL villain turn TT or KQ into a bluff (and jamming 143bb on the river is turning KQ into a bluff).

This is never AQ or KQ from a villain with a 1.3 river AF. What specific hands take this line that villain turns into a bluff on the river?

Yes sorry, not an overbet. Any reason for shoving turn? Any comments on the x/c line ott?

Villain can have KK too, it is reasonable to call 3b pre 200bb deep. Only wonder whether it is possible that he potcontrols pre and then raises turn.

Don't 3bet turn. I still like the turn bet for value. Only QQ improved to a better hand and you still get value from lower pairs. Even when villain raises, I think you can call/evaluate river, getting 3.6:1 odds. Sometimes villain will give up or take a worse value hand to showdown on the river. And usually the river won't be the nut worst river card in the deck for you (i.e., the card that completes every potential turn semi-bluff).

Thinking about it more, I think the river is a clear fold. I don't see any bluffing hands that villain can have unless (a) he is turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff, or (b) he floated with air on the flop in a 3bet pot, raised your 2nd barrel with air and then jammed 150bb on the river. You just don't see the former very often at uNL and the second is very unlikely.

It's possible, but it doesn't make any sense. If you are flatting KK, it's because you want to keep the 3bettor's range wide and not isolate yourself against just AA.

But if villain doesn't think KK is strong enough to stack off on pre (when he is behind only AA), why is he now willing to GII on a 335Q2sss board? He is still behind AA and there are now other hands (e.g., QQ) that beat him. His relative hand strength has gone down since preflop.

I agree with you 100%, good post!

The only thing I'd like to add is that if villain was the type of player that could pull off a bluff like this you would probably know it by the time the hand happened. Very nice fold.

Thanks for all the feedback everyone, very much appreciated.