villan 16/14 167 hands.

have a little over psb left. shove? if i check, what to do on river if villan leads?

Merge $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

UTG: $9.85
MP: $6.72
CO: $18.23
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $9.90
BB: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG raises to $0.35, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.20, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($2.55) 5 9 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.91, UTG calls $1.91

Turn: ($6.37) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero?

b/c

He isnt betting into you, so shy of milking a set of 9's, I am thinking you are ahead.

Checking it down on the turn and river isnt terrible considering he is calling you thus far. If you fire a bet at the turn and he calls, look to check it down at the river. At that point you are getting committed though.

Cant see him having AA or KK or there would have been more raises/bets here by the tight villain.

I probably donk bet something that would most likely cause him to spazz or make a bad call, then call if he ships, if he calls ship the river bc i'd range him TT-JJ most of the time.

Closer to half pot on flop so you can bet turn and shove river.

The K doesn't change very much, unless you think he called pf with AK and c/c on that board, which is pretty unlikely. His most likely holding is still JJ-TT, I don't think you're going to get his stack on this board since he can't put you on AK and think he is ahead anymore.

shove

As stated above I don't mind checking it down. I think a slightly better line would be a thin value bet on the river if it bricks, fold to any c/r as we would be beat. If villain leads the river I don't mind a fold here. No need to get in a marginal spot vs. a UTG TAG.

By betting on this turn, you are folding all the hands that you are beating. So I would prefer a check behind on the turn and maybe a call on the river if the villain bets.

By checking the turn we are keeping all the villain's bluffs, so we have to call the river.

I'm betting this turn. His stats suggest he is a tag putting his opening range pf to be 88+, AQo+... He check/calls this flop, which to me narrows his range to a pp that we have beat. If he check/raises me i know I can most likely lay this hand down, as he is likely hiding 99, or has KK, or AA (or even hid AK), but if he flat calls I am confidently betting value on his river check.

If he leads the river, I suppose we are priced in at that point, although in the 10NL games that I play, often times it ends up being a ridiculous KQo, even 10s8s would be a common result. However, in the long run, I find that its more often 77, 88, 1010, JJ, and we are getting value on hands that typical villains at these stakes will not fold.

I like the check behind as well and trying to showdown for cheap.

I'm a bit surprised about all these calls to bet - if we bet anything more than half pot really, we end up with a tiny stack (relative to pot size) on the river, it's just not a good move - you may as well take the extra FE and shove, if you are going to bet on this turn. If you make a bet of any size, your stack is committed in these circumstances, and as such, especially with a hand like Q's, a shove is a far greater move than a bet.

But to me, in a vacuum I think it's best to check it down, although if I was going to check it down, it would be dependent upon villains aggression stats, especially turn aggression. Against an aggro villain this is a shove, against a passive villain it's a check.

I think I would actually call pf vs. this player pre flop especially as you play v tight

as played bet less on the flop more like half pot

when you bet the turn I think its unlikely you get called by worse but saying that you nearly always have the best hand