Villain is a 36/30 over reasonable sample size who stabs at pots and whi is able to make moves.

My reasoning for betting the river is this: by betting the river hands as JJ, TT, QJs and QTs can call me as bluffcatchers ,since I could have missed my flush draw. That's a total of 20 combos

The only hands I fear is AQ really since KK and AA he would have bet the river. These are 16 combos.

Since the majority of combos are those that I can beat, I bet the river. IS this a good play?


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($44.75)
Hero ($87.74)
CO ($20)
BTN ($155)

Dealt to Hero Q K

CO calls $0.50, fold, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50

FLOP ($6) Q 7 5

SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, CO folds

TURN ($15) Q 7 5 3

SB bets $10, Hero calls $10

RIVER ($35) Q 7 5 3 9

SB checks, Hero bets $35, SB calls $28.25 (AI)

Hero shows Q K
(Pre 30%, Flop 46.4%, Turn 27.3%)

SB shows A Q
(Pre 70%, Flop 53.6%, Turn 72.7%)

SB wins $90

no he had AQ ldo

I don't like it. The hands you mentioned don't double barrel unless they are aggrofish, and they def. don't call a river shove. This just isn't how to make money at the mircos. If anything you should raise the flop with TP2K + FD

Don't show results next time

I agree with Nas about the river. I would also raise this flop a vast majority of the time.

get it in on the flop and i like it. I still dont mind it, you had a read he was over aggressive and barrelled alot i assume.
here he jus showed up with the top of his range.

He actually showed up with the bottom of his river shove calling range I would think.

he has 80% of the pot left in his stack its hardly an overbet.

and this villain is not a competent player ducy?

This. You'll get much more objective responses that way.

I actually raise flop here and call a shove. As played, definitely check behind on river.

Do you think he is calling this shove on the river with worse then a Q more then about 10% of the time that he spite/tilt calls?

you dont htink he's checking to induce then?

yes, i think OP has the right range for him calling river.
our hand is severely under repped and looks like a missed draw, villains like this aren't folding any of that range here.

His iso range from the SB is prob super strong so raising the flop is bad without a lot of spewy histry from both of you

Oops nvm didn't see you have a FD

I hate it, only because he is *almost* never calling with worse, and will fold out anything you beat..I say thank you and check behind on the river.

even before this though I would raise/shove that flop

I raise the flop u are flipping vs Aces
Im just saying....

Grunch:
If you want worse Qs and JJ to call you, why are you potting it? Seems to me like you'd want to bet maybe 1/2 PSB.

That way:
a) if you get raised, easy fold.

b) You bet pot, (meaning you need a fold > 50% of the time to be +EV) and even by your own calcs, he has you beat close 50% of the time. Not much +EV in the best case scenario. And that's assuming you are right about JJ and TT playing this way, which is quite possibly not the case. That means he has you beat < 50%. -EV.

c) With a smaller bet, you have at least a chance of getting called by a worse Q or JJ. A PSB makes that likelihood pretty small, dontcha think?

Why should we raise the flop IP with what we have unless we think he is going to call with worse? Yeah we are flipping with AA, but that's not really any reason to raise the flop IMO. We keep his range wider by flatting. We get more value from weaker queens and 88-JJ (2 streets pretty much always). By raising we force him to fold hands that we are ahead of (except the NFD) and end up flipping wiith (AA KK AQ) or being a clear underdog (sets) to the hands he continues with.

Flatting is by far the superior move in the micros IMO.

this, but i don't think villan cbets JJ-TT, also you did not say that raising kicks out the CO that could call with weaker FD's weaker Qx, etc.
so +1 to "flatting is by far the superior move in the micros"

I mostly cbet JJ TT there 3 way.

I think a river bet here is mandatory. Too bad he had better. Just bet smaller next time. AQ is the absolute top of his checking range there and he shouldn't even be check that.

What is he calling a shove with? Checking the river isn't that bad for him either. A lot of draws missed and you probably pick up quite a bit of bluffs and you are only really gaining value from other queens and occasionally misplayed other hands but the range you gain value from isn't so big.

Did I say shove?

I don't agree with this.

AQ certainly should be a bet but we're not getting value from a worse c/c range like ever.

You're being results oriented. I constantly get called by worse in this spot. It's easy to say "Oh when he calls he has better" after you see the results but he almost never has better in this spot and may find a call with QJ, QT or even terribly played JJ putting us on missed diamonds.