Villian is 65/22 over 25 hands...

Easy snap?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.75(BB) Replayer
SB ($50)
BB ($49.25)
UTG ($20)
CO ($45.38)
Hero ($50.95)

Dealt to Hero A K

UTG checks, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $6, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $4.50

FLOP ($13.50) 7 4 Q

CO bets $39.38 (AI), Hero calls $39.38

i cannt see him call ur 3bet with kj or k10 diamonds so imo hes got a set and you have 9 outs to hit your flush i think about it but call..

I might be doing the same thing, though you are am 29/71 dog if he already has his flush and you are flipping with him if he has a queen. So maybe you actually have to let this go, hard for me to lay down though.

You can't? Of course it's a small sample, but villain seems to be a little crazy so far.

If he has the set you are a 28/72 dog, not sure I like the logic . . . of course that's only if you are calling because you think he has a set.

sorta meant i dont think he has the flush already. At best he has a set but he does look a lil crazy he could just be shoving with less

Yes, but unless he is doing this with air, you are behind. With KdKx you are 44%. climbingV13 showed how far behind you are against a set or a made flush. You're even behind against QK, and only racing against QJ, but did he call with these preflop?

Difficult, but probably should have folded. Not sure I would have...

Made a filter for HEM that filters all the hands where I got donkbet into when I had 3bet preflop, didn't see a shove once, unless there was a shortstacker involved.

lol, he doesn't have a set though one of your overs might not be good.

this is oop .. i cant see him calling a 3bet pre with kj or k10 and i feel like he would raise with kk ... i can see ax kd , qq jj 77 doing this .. even a q trying to block ... but being as everyone thinks this dude was crazy as hell i guess u could put him on anything

Quickly stoved a range. As you can see, went a bit on the conservative side and apart from the hands that are valueshoving this, I added in three combinations of KdJx, one of AxJd.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,610 games 0.015 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Qd 7d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.980% 45.91% 00.07% 17726 27.00 { AdKs }
Hand 1: 54.020% 53.95% 00.07% 20830 27.00 { QQ+, 77, 44, AQs, KQs, KdJd, AQo, AcJh, AsJd, KQo, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs }

We need to be good 42.6% of the time btw.

Anyway, why don't you download pokerstove yourself and play around a bit with the ranges. Against a pure valuerange of QQ+,77,44,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo you're not doing that great (39.5%). If you add three combinations of unpaired holdings with a diamond to this range, it seems you're getting the price. If you add some top pairs in his range that don't have you dominated (QJ), you're getting a better price as well.

Might be wrong here, but the only thing I can conclude after writing all this up is that it really depends on how much you like variance. Do you have a horseshoe up your ass?

Please say when I'm wrong somewhere with the ranges, I tend to **** this up pretty quickly.

He is probably shoving any PP here. I think you need to call.

I think none of your options is bad (as I explained in my previous post), but putting any pocket pair in his range is a little optimistic. Just saying.

He has other stuff too, for sure ,but I think a lot of his range is PPs.

Yeah, didn't think about adding stuff like 88dx. Maybe it's a little more of a call then but definitely not a shame if he folded.