PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker Hand Converter from PokerConverter.com

UTG+1 ($93.70)
MP1 ($70.37)
MP2 ($64.89)
MP3 ($58.12)
CO ($64.83)
Button ($16.50)
SB ($38.44)
Hero (BB) ($69.93)
UTG ($29.19)

Villain hasn't played a hand so far (27).

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.75, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.05) J, 10, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $2, Hero raises to $6.25, UTG+1 calls $4.25

Turn: ($14.55) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.25, UTG+1 calls $12.25

River: ($39.05) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $20.25, UTG+1 raises to $40.50, Hero ?

I must admit that I haven't put much thought into my river bet, and now I am not 100% sure what to do.
Comments on all streets appreciated.

So the villain hasn't played a single hand out of 27? So unless he's card-dead, that would indicate he's quite tight.

An UTG raise is probably something like AQ+, TT+ then? Once he calls your check-raise on the flop, I'd narrow his range to TT, QQ, KK and AA. Since he does seem tight, I don't think he'd be calling the flop with AK/AQ.

The turn call does seem consistent with a scared overpair-type hand or he thinks he's slowplaying you maybe? The river min-raise generally indicates a big hand, maybe he spiked an overset? I'm not good enough to fold this and would probably call and be shown three Q's?

We have to discount AK after he calls flop and turn unless maybe AhKh but that's one combo. He can have QQ or TT about the same amont of the time. For sure never folding with the odds we're being laid with second set. If it's QQ nasty cooler.

Imo, don't c/r the flop, you are only representing a set...and therefore you make a lot of his range fold (if he is good). You might get AA-QQ to continue in the hand...but if you just call and see a turn he might double barrel a big part of his range and then you can check raise. If he has unpaired overcards he would check behind turn so you are not getting value from that anyway.

Dont know how it plays so uber deep but your JJ is certainly worth a bet on the river imo. Otherwise he gets away free every time your ahead and you end up check/calling and thus paying off when behind.

For the hand it self, I dont know how we can fold JJ here but I'm convinced you are beat. This guy isn't delaying playing a worse set for so long, when so deep and with the scare card river. 89 and AK make a straight so why would he want to make a committing raise 400bb deep with a worse set (or worse still...)?

He could conceivably have QQ but really I don't think he has a single worse hand in his range.

Disclaimer: i dont play this deep ever.

I don't play this deep but have a few thoughts about this hand.

If you raise the flop bigger to say ~$8-$9, we can then bet the turn about 3/4 pot to set up a nice river shove vs his AA & KK and not have to worry bout sick coolers. What do people think of this line this deep? Will nits be able to lay down over pairs this deep in general, I'm thinking since this guy hasn't played a hand yet he could be in f**k you i call mode. Whaddya think?



+1 to this as played

what a sick sick river.

we are getting 5:1 on our call. (100 in the pot after his raise, 20 more to call the raise)
so we need to be right 1/5 times in order to make this profitable
given our read on the villain (which is UTG raise, hasnt played a single hand super tight)
his range is really polarized, to big aces, and medium-to big pairs.

the river min raise SUPER polarizes his range to pretty much AK or QQ imo.
(im leaning heavily towards QQ)

the only hands we beat that COULD pull this line are 1010. 33. or 77
which wouldnt pull this line imo
villain woulda shipped either the flop or the turn with these hands
so it really comes down to does he have AA, KK, AK or QQ?

highly doubt hed have AA or KK because he wouldnt value-min raise the river on us. hed just call down.

doubt hed call our min raisse and turn bet with AK gutshot.



id bet a frozen yogurt that he had QQ here.

i wish someone could show us equity on calling this river here.

to me, it seems like

1.) either villain has the nuts
or
2.) villains pulling a bluff

i cant ever see him having lower set here
and i doubt villain would even pullt his bluff...
after the flop raise he KNOWS that we wanna play for stacks
why would he wait till the river to try and jam?

but the pot odds are so enticing i feel like so many people would call :|

I'll take that bet I put him on AhKh. (Given combos really this should be laying 6 to 1 frozen yoghurts)

haha ur on.

just wait for OPs results 8)

/agree

Grunch: Make it like $8 otf. I'm def never folding or rasing turn (If he has QQ, I think he played terribly so call and make a note). His most likely hand is AK imo or maybe 89s

As the board panned out do you think hell bust with an overpair to a b/b/s line?

Highly unlikely - 1 pair hands are unlikely to get to the river - If I was villain with AA, I'd b/f flop and feel fine about it - huge RIO spot 300BB deep tbh. Getting all in with 1 pair in a singly raised flop is probably -EV at 25nl 100BB deep in general.

Cool, was thinkin itd be a bit dodgee as we are that deep wasnt too sure though. Thanks for clearin that up!

In general with 1 pair hands, we can commit if SPR is in the vicinity of 6 or less (huge number of exceptions I know), we don't commit with more. 1 pair hands hate SPRs of 13 because they can be threatened with all ins alot of the time.

Here SPR is 34ish - if villain wants to play along with AA here, we should be very glad (and willing to play with him with virtually any two).

The astute people out there will have noticed a paradox here - we generally cannot commit with AA unless it improves (usually to a set) - so essentially we can set mine with AA preflop and it is not terrible 300BB deep - however 100BB players will flame me for telling them that. I'd rather 3bet preflop 300BB deep with A5s or 78s type hands that AA - here's why: If we 3bet with AA to say 12BB and get one caller (pot=25BB) SPR is 11.5 which plays badly for big PPs and well for drawing hands.

If you're not 3betting AA then 3betting A5s makes little sense, imo.

I understand that in terms of range and balance and all that - I'm just illustrating a point - either 3bet bigger with AA or don't 3bet.

I don't think you can manipulate the 3bet size with 300BB stacks to get to a comfortable SPR. You just have to be comfortable playing postflop and not go broke with 1 pair.

Look at a non-3bet situation, with normal stacks - I raise AA to 3.5x from middle position, the button calls, blinds fold. Pot is 8.5 (3.5+3.5+1+0.5), stacks are 96.5. SPR is 11.35 - very close to 13. The correct play isn't to raise preflop to 6x, though. And it's certainly not correct to NOT raise (to keep SPR high).

So back to your 3bet example, I don't think we say "don't 3bet with AA because it makes the SPR awkward" - we still need to 3bet. You can make it way bigger for value reasons (villain is a donk and will call a 5x 3bet), but not just to manipulate SPR.


Note that I don't like making this argument - I love citing low SPR as the "reason" to not worry about flush and straight draws getting there on the turn against shortstacks. (I just did it yesterday). It's a great way to look at hands, but I don't think it's optimal to over-raise your premiums to set up easy shoves on the turn. Remember, we WANT 5c6c to call us with our aces (at least before we see the 3c 4c Kd flop anyway, lol).

Meh, I don't agree... I often raise with draws on the flop as well and sometimes air.

As played, can't fold anymore... I'm not too scared of AK, not even AhKh. If he's so tight he's not often continuing with AK on the flop and the hearts only start mattering when he calls on the turn.

This really looks like QQ but you can't fold here anymore...

At least villain is kind enough to save OP 12$

Thank you for your answer. What am I representing with a turn c/r? Given what we have seen so far, villain is probably a very tight player, so it's highly unlikely that he will double barrel a big part of his range on this board. Moreover, his big bet on the flop announces that he has an overpair, so a c/c, c/r line might miss some value (think of the fundamental theorem, and ask yourself how you would play the hand, if you knew villain had AA).

In my experience, unknown players at NL 25 tend to be weak and there is always a decent chance they might bust with AA or KK, even with blinds this deep. Thus I think it's a good idea to make the flop raise bigger, preparing to shove any non A, K, Q river card.

In the actual hand I folded to his raise on the river, which is probably a mistake. My reasoning at game speed was that even though I am getting 5 to 1 on a call, I can't imagine I am ever winning here, unless villain is bluffing.
I didn't consider slowplayed sets (why would he make a big c-bet on the flop and then start slowplaying after my raise?), and given the size of the pot and my play so far, how can he possibly think of bluffing?

Right after the hand villain typed in the chat box: "Thank you for folding, I had AT".

I'd much rather CR big OTF, overbet the turn and shove river here. If he calls a big CR OTF, he likes his hand and we have the mega nuts so might as well make him pay hard.

As played river is an easy call. The only hand that makes sense here is 89 and he might even fold it to a big bet OTT. Weirdly played 33, TT or JT is definitly not impossible and QJ is a candidate as well. Even if he never bluffs, this is still a call so if he seomtimes does, this is a turbo snap.

This is how I play the hand. I never end up in this spot on the river.

FWIW if I were hero I still would have shoved the river. It's like $40 into $39 so just over a potsize shove anyway.

I prefer to make my sizing better on previous streets so it's not as difficult for villain to call w/ worse. Still tho, I think at these stakes people are gonna find a call w/ some pretty ridiculous **** even when you shove here.

How about QQ? AKhh?

Really?