Villain is 20/13/1 only over 15 hands. But even with that small sample size we can tell that he/she is not a complete donkey.


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG: $9.65
UTG+1: $1.45
UTG+2: $24.55
MP1: $5.00
Hero (MP2): $16.25
CO: $21.10
BTN: $9.50
SB: $9.05
BB: $3.75

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with K K
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) Q 6 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.35) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.70, BTN calls $1.70

River: ($5.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, BTN raises to $6.70 all in, Hero calls $4.45

I snap called it. I was thinking, is the 1/3 potsized valuebet small enought to make a TPTK push over the top often? Maybe Villain sees that as a smaller queen which is trying to get to showdown cheaply?
Or am I beat here a lot of the times?

Thanks.

I think you're better off checking the river than betting such a small amount. If the villain missed their flush draw, they aren't going to call it anyway.

As played, if they have TPTK, they'll probably just call. You said big hand for two streets and probably would be happy to call it down so cheap. It looks like a set that was thrilled that you were betting such that his shove on the river was easy to make. Given that I automatically assume the villain can be bluffing 10% of the time and I can't be more than 85% sure a villain wouldn't do this with TPTK, it is enough to call getting 3.3:1, though.

Hmm a tough one. No, 15 hands isn't enough to say anything (it would be perhaps if it was 100/0 or 100/100...). I've gone 20 without playing a single one, I've ran 20 at 40/35. Typically people aren't that aggressive without a real hand. Ugh this is a pretty sick spot actually. Obivously TP is likely to call a big bet. So if you're betting that small against a readless it would probably be in hope of having them call with something less than TP, which I doubt you're accomplishing here, so if you're going to bet you should bet bigger. Given this I think it might even be correct to fold, but I'm definitely not savvy enough to let it go haha. Just call and punch something.

[/n00b]

I c/c this river and let him bluff at me with missed draws and possibly make a vbet with TP. As played, I'm probably calling, but I don't like it. This river card is pretty damn harmless and I think you would've seen a raise somewhere earlier if he had a set. However, he might be trying to push you off now that he's missed a FD or even something like TJ. The river bet size looks like a weak block and can sometimes be used to gain more value than c/cing against missed draws, but it's better if you have a solid read that villain will bluff shove the river.

Villian's flopped set just turned into a boat on the river. You have shown extreme aggressiveness and are now raised on the river. This raise most likely means what it is supposed to mean.

I'm check/calling every time on a board with two missed flush draws.