Hi. I'm a micro-stakes grinder who has recently moved from 10nl to 20nl. I've been beating 10nl for a long time and am over-rolled for 20nl. As I have only recently purchased PokerTracker, I cannot provide a proper large sample winrate, but over the last 40k hands at 10nl I was at 8bb/100h, and before that I was probably something similar over a couple of hundred thousand hands.
Anyway, at long last I moved up to 20nl and so far it has not been going very well. Over the first 20k hands I'm down $227. Adjusted for all-in equity I should be down $151. I have been running kind of bad, therefore. I've also been coolered on a few memorable occasions, and in general feel as though I've not been getting the rub of the green. According to LeakTracker, I'm playing a solid game (18/14/2.5). But still, I'm not sure. It's difficult to tell when one is new to a stake and I think that 20k hands should be sufficient to give one some idea of long term expectation. I've been on worse downswings at 10nl (in terms of BIs, if not $s), but at 10nl I could retain my confidence, knowing I was beating the stake. Now, it is different.
Any advice on what to do in this situation would be welcome. I'm not as concerned about the money as I am about the sample size. I'd have thought that at the micros it's almost impossible for a good player to lose over 20,000 hands, but I may be wrong.
It is 6max, yes, and yes, I suppose the stats are nitty. Looking at the 40k 10nl sample I have, I was 32/24 there. Possibly that's deceptive, though, as I remember quite a few instances of playing HU and 3-handed for extended periods, and obviously I wasn't 18/14 in those circumstances..
Anyway, thanks for your comment about losing over the sample size. I will remain at 20nl and hope it is only variance.
Looking at the 40k 10nl sample I have, I was 32/24 there. Possibly that's deceptive, though, as I remember quite a few instances of playing HU and 3-handed for extended periods, and obviously I wasn't 18/14 in those circumstances..
Hi, you can filter out 2 and 3 handed in your database report for a reliable result.
Just my personal opinion so take from it what you will, but i think the difference between 20nl and 10nl is not that great, theres a few less fish/regs thats the only difference, most of the regs aren't much better. Your probably over adjusting your play bc its a higher limit, and also running bad. Happens to everyone, just get togther a default gameplan and stick to it. GL
Cheers for the PT tip and the welcome, jeun. And thanks for your advice, too, Kaizer. I imagine that that is the approach I will take. I managed to book a small win today so perhaps things are looking up. Time will tell.
variance can be a cold bitch. I'd say, if you are over-rolled the best way to beat nl20, is to keep playing nl20. Going back down wouldn't really help you.
Also, I can't really speak for nl10, but generally speaking whenever I've moved up historically my bb/100 drops very marginally. Like -1bb/100 or something. Basically, you are currently running ~ -5bb/100 at nl20, and were 8bb/100 at nl10. There is not a 13bb/100 difference from stake to stake. That's just variance **** ing with you.
