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a must fold or a mandatory call?

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11-07-2009 , 01:59 PM

#26

blackieconnors

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 93

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeeba Neighba

So you're saying a 3 barrel at 2NL would be the same range as a 3 barrel at 200NL? What about an overbet shove like that, is that the same range regardless of the stakes? You have to make the correct decision, but the stakes absolutely play a role in building his range.

I will agree completly that the probability of being ahead in this situation at 2nl is far greater than 200nl. However I actually think that when it comes to this situation that at any level you will be behind on average.

.5>P(ahead|2nl)>P(ahead|200nl)

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11-07-2009 , 02:05 PM

#27

Zeeba Neighba

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 875

Quote:

Originally Posted by The flying-donkey

OMG awful

Right it really is this simple, villain always has a thought process even if it is ******edly ******ed. Villain could easily push 2p or set thinking that everyone calls with crap or hands that they shouldn't in NL2 and get paid off by a lot of people here on 2+2 who say it's NL2 we haz AA mandatory call.

FWIW folding or calling here is not a disiaster, just expect to see KQ,KT here sometimes and expect to see JJJ,777 and even KKK KJ K7 J7 here thats all. I love how people say villain can't be thinking and he can't be doing this with a set.

And for the record I've seen some better villlains in NL2 than a lot of those in NL50, so it's NL2 is not a read is it.

Sorry it just tilts me when people try and give stake reads, it's a characteristic of a losing player trust me.

You have a bag, 85 blue marbles, 15 red marbles. You have ~$4 to wager to win ~$4. Are you not betting on blue and feeling pretty good about your chances?

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11-07-2009 , 02:16 PM

#28

curly86

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 3,451

The stakes do make a difference when we are readless. The average 2NL villain wont play the same as the average 5000NL villain.

Also at 2NL, villain is unlikely to adjust to being 200BB deep.

To me, this is a call and take a note situation, he has no reason to think we are particularly strong here, so I think he is as likely to be doing this with Kx or draws as hands that beat us. And yes we will be behind sometimes

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11-07-2009 , 02:28 PM

#29

The flying-donkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,374

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeeba Neighba

You have a bag, 85 blue marbles, 15 red marbles. You have ~$4 to wager to win ~$4. Are you not betting on blue and feeling pretty good about your chances?

Poker players are not homogenoues like the blue/red marble example. Your opposition at NL2 is likely to be terrible, but the way that they will be terrible will vary from player to player.

To the last post you're commiting a cardinal sin by assuming that the player is going to read us as not necessarily strong because he hasn't shown much strength from your prospective. This guy might be putting hero on AK here or he might be picking his nose, but what he isn't doing is thinking exaxtly like you.

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11-07-2009 , 02:36 PM

#30

Zeeba Neighba

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 875

Quote:

Originally Posted by The flying-donkey

Poker players are not homogenoues like the blue/red marble example. Your opposition at NL2 is likely to be terrible, but the way that they will be terrible will vary from player to player.

No, they aren't homogeneous, but I'd expect a bad low limit player to be more in a traping mindset with sets and 2 pair than an overshove mindset, and you really have to adjust your range here accordingly

Quote

11-07-2009 , 02:51 PM

#31

curly86

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 3,451

Quote:

Originally Posted by The flying-donkey

opponents will vary, but with no info we should consider them to be average for that level. Fwiw, I wouldnt give much credit to anyone at any level who did this with no history between the players. At lower levels though, villains are more likely to overvalue TP

I cant think of a good reason to play either the nuts,TP, a draw or a bluff like this without any history. For that reason I think a reasonably strong hand like AA is good enough to call here

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11-07-2009 , 03:45 PM

#32

The flying-donkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,374

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeeba Neighba

No, they aren't homogeneous, but I'd expect a bad low limit player to be more in a traping mindset with sets and 2 pair than an overshove mindset, and you really have to adjust your range here accordingly

Quote:

Originally Posted by curly86

I cant think of a good reason to play either the nuts,TP, a draw or a bluff like this without any history. For that reason I think a reasonably strong hand like AA is good enough to call here

This is the problem you cant but they can, and that's what matters as they're playing the hand and you're not. Calling with AA is certainly a feasible strategy here, but it's not a fist-pump call and I think IMO you are missing a mildy +EV play for substantial variance. You are making the fundamental mistake of assuming the shove is weakness because he must be "trapping" with good hands. WE KNOW NOTHING ABOUT THIS PLAYER, and it's best to remember that.

Last edited by The flying-donkey; 11-07-2009 at 03:46 PM. Reason: You know this players probably not great but thats it

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11-07-2009 , 03:50 PM

#33

Vehement

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 678

The more I look at this hand the more I'm leaning towards k7 or j7
probably really terrible to put him on such a small range, but it just makes the most sense in my eyes

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11-07-2009 , 03:53 PM

#34

potpotshove

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,242

snap call! overpair, 2NL

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11-07-2009 , 03:57 PM

#35

martin9_90

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,586

oh hi there potodds

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11-07-2009 , 04:05 PM

#36

borges

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,344

There is a lot of this idiocy at 2NL and 5NL for that matter.....many fish have learned that when they have the nuts....it is enormously profitable to shove.......because so many OTHER FISH will call these ridiculous bets.......

For 100 BB I'd call this....for 200 BB, no. And yes i realize its only 4 dollars.

Quote

11-07-2009 , 04:11 PM

#37

lumileijona

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 8,020

Quote:

Originally Posted by borges

YESH finally a voice of reason.

1 fold, Hero raises to 6$, 1 fold, SB calls 5$, 1 fold
flop
SB checks, Hero bets 8$, SB raises to 752$ all in

Some sense of proportion. Who calls that with 1 pair hand?

Yeah it's 2NL he is prob a fish. Yeah he can be on a draw...
we call and we are worse fish.

Quote

11-07-2009 , 04:43 PM

#38

blackieconnors

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 93

Quote:

Originally Posted by lumileijona

AGREED!!

Quote

11-07-2009 , 04:54 PM

#39

curly86

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 3,451

Quote:

Originally Posted by The flying-donkey

Are you expecting or hoping? From my experience villains tend to be quite call down happy at NL2 with hands like KQ here. Some do go nuts but normally when I have AA's here it goes bet/bet/bet and they show down some Kx/Jx/7x/TT type of hand. I can back that up btw!

This is the problem you cant but they can, and that's what matters as they're playing the hand and you're not. Calling with AA is certainly a feasible strategy here, but it's not a fist-pump call and I think IMO you are missing a mildy +EV play for substantial variance. You are making the fundamental mistake of assuming the shove is weakness because he must be "trapping" with good hands. WE KNOW NOTHING ABOUT THIS PLAYER, and it's best to remember that.

Ok, going around in circles here. Im happy to call because I think its +EV from the very limited info I have. I dont know if his shove is weakness or strength. I dont think its a fistpump, but i think AA is good often enough to call. If you think different thats fine .

Also if its mildly +EV call and embrace the variance unless you are not properly rolled

Quote

11-07-2009 , 05:23 PM

#40

blackieconnors

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 93

Quote:

Originally Posted by curly86

I wouldn't agree it's even mildly +EV, I definatly view this situation as -EV

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11-07-2009 , 05:49 PM

#41

Discipline

banned

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 2,892

snap fold

and i have played 48k hands of NL2

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11-07-2009 , 05:51 PM

#42

dillingerdisco7

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 91

dudes probably pushing with ak or something, typical play in that limit

Quote

11-07-2009 , 05:53 PM

#43

mmx

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 213

Quote:

Originally Posted by dillingerdisco7

dudes probably pushing with ak or something, typical play in that limit

Lol my thoughts exactly. Altho I haven't put in 48k hands at two-pence like Discipline so what do I know?

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11-07-2009 , 06:55 PM

#44

evitooo

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 2,432

insta call.

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