villian has only been at the table for 40 hands. Seems fishy at 44/18/3. no reads on what he donks here.

With so many draws missing and the river pairing im not sure whether to bet or give up. If you'd bet - how much?

I was wondering about betting something pretty tiny just to get missed draws to fold - 40 dollars maybe?

Prima Network $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $308.72
BB: $726.52
UTG: $701.48
MP: $224.05
CO: $65.60
Hero (BTN): $430.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with 6 7
1 fold, MP raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, SB calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($40.00) Q 4 5 (3 players)
SB bets $20.00, MP folds, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($80.00) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $62.00, SB calls $62

River: ($204.00) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero....

(villian has 200 left)

I think you see a lot of Qx hands here and they're very likely calling any river bet given stack sizes.

You will fold out the draws he has but i don't think most people are calling your turn bet of 3/4 pot with just a draw... I think you get looked up here way too often. I hate doing it and probably would have to stick a small bet out there in practice but I think checking back is best.

I don't mind checking back here. As JCS said his hand looks alot like a Qx getting scared of the K-turn. I also think you can probably bet a bit smaller on the turn, and get the same effect.

Why bet smaller on the turn when we're setting up a river shove? Seems fine and check back river.

Qx is obv not folding, "all" fd's are either combo draws or overcard+FD on the turn so he still has quite a few of those. If you bet 50 Axcc probably calls and there's quite a few of those when considering all possible fd's so getting them to fold is important so the most optimal line would be to bet enough to get him to fold it, maybe 70 or so, has to work ~25% of the time.

If you checked river, then the turn is not good, since he isn't leading into all those people and then c/f the turn very often with a draw or a made hand. As Babalatexi said, a Smallish bet is +EV here.

Doing some calcs, it's actually pretty close. We can't really know his leading range but if he leads a lot of Q's there's a TON of those compsared to his FD's so even only betting 70 is probably too big (gets called too often). On the other hand, I guess he could have some dd hands as well (A2dd, 67dd). Sometimes he has 88 or w/e too, meh I'm starting to think he has too few draws in his range.

Assuming he doesn't lead AQ (too strong) here's some rough combos but again it's not to give an accurate presentation of his range but rather to demonstrate the ratio between Qx and FD's if we assume this is how he plays them.

KQ, QJ, QT, Q9, Q8, Q7s, Q6s=+9+12+12+12+12+2+2=61
Clubs: AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A3, A2=8 combos
TJ, J9, T9, 87, 86, 76=6 combos, total 14 combos

Maybe betting 12.78 to fold out the non A-club draws is best ;x.

so if hes calling with 61 hands and folding 22,

61/83 we lose 'a'
22/83 we win 204

(22/83)204 - (61/83)a = 0

So to show a profit we need to bet less that 73 dollars ish.

My maths might be off but i think thats right.

betting and checking seems pretty close then.

That's fine.

Other than a missed draw you're not getting anything to fold.

Babar, there's only 14 flush combos total in my calcs (obv we don't know if they're in his range at all and if so, how often). There might also be some pp's, A5 type hands that increases his calling range and maybe some A2dd, 67dd (very few though) that decrease it. The key question is how to weigh his range given his flop half donk and turn c/c and it makes perfect sense, well in a donk way, for him to have a lot of Qx. He's also in the SB pf with already one caller so he's most likely calling with pretty bad Qx's (maybe even Q5s).

The beautiful thing is that you obviously don't ever need to balance which might make some sort of ******ed bet (say $10) EV+, just to fold out his non A-hi FD's.

meh i used 22 because hes a donk and i can imagine him calling all his flush draws not just his combos.

my only concern with betting 10 dollars is he might just call with almost anything out of curiousity! your right about not needing to balance tho... i like 20dollars!

Keep in mind that he might spaz out and raise with his FDs if you make a very small bet. I would check the river.

Result??

I think in the end its very close between a small bet / check it back...

how much FE do you think you have on the turn, personally I dont think it is a lot, I was trying to think of reasons for betting the turn, but can not come up with one. You think checking it back would be better?

turn bet is fine imo, plus u have a lot of good rivers to fire. Ko isnt one of them and i'd check it back. Maybe somethin small for him to fold out his FDs if hes a big fish and has like T8cc type hands in his range.