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Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call? Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call?

11-09-2011 , 02:16 PM
    Merge, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11000592

    MP2: $10 (100 bb)
    MP3: $3.15 (31.5 bb)
    Hero (CO): $20.48 (204.8 bb)
    BTN: $18.95 (189.5 bb)
    SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
    BB: $15.91 (159.1 bb)
    UTG+2: $16.82 (168.2 bb)
    MP1: $10.20 (102 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with J Q
    UTG+2 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.75) T T K (2 players)
    UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50

    Turn: ($1.75) 9 (2 players)
    UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1, UTG+2 raises to $2, Hero calls $1

    River: ($5.75) 6 (2 players)
    UTG+2 bets $14.02 and is all-in, Hero ?




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    Villain is an unknown with a deep stack that I've seen only play a few hands. I had a very hard time here figuring out what to do because of the paired board. I knew I could be facing a boat. I tanked for awhile and thought about all the hands he could have.

    KK is out because no 3 bet from villain preflop.
    99 is unlikely because of my C-bet and the king, but I did have a high C-bet and was playing quite a bit of hands, so a better player could float here thinking they're best and then get lucky.
    66 is pretty much impossible because he's not raising the turn with nothing.
    10-10 makes sense but is too unlikely to worry about statistically.
    K-10 is quite possible and likely even though it makes a weak UTG +2 call. I was playing a big LAG game though.
    9-10s scares me most. It's just the kind of hand I'd play against a guy playing a strong and tricky LAG game, and he would surely stick with it even after the flop bet.

    The last two hands seem like big possibilities here. My image is strong and tricky, but definitely LAG in general. What do I do here?
    Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call? Quote
    11-09-2011 , 03:10 PM
    Vs an unknown in this spot, the fold button is looking good IMO
    Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call? Quote
    11-09-2011 , 03:10 PM
    Fold. The overbet is very strong and almost never a bluff, and his limp call makes me think he's a fish and could have T9 or 99.
    Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call? Quote
    11-09-2011 , 03:38 PM
    he has Tx where x= K or 9 pretty much always, unless he turns out to be a crazy whale....minus that read muck it fast.
    Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call? Quote
    11-09-2011 , 04:31 PM
    you are trying to range this guy based on what a good player would do with certain hands, but he limped in utg+2. So how can you have any sort of concept of his range here? I don't think you can't put together a sufficently accurate and fairly weighted range of hans together against which to assess you hand, so that is a pretty boring and futile exercise. Your image is also not relevant, he is not paying attention to that sort of thing.

    So instead I'd simply revert back to: he limped early so likely is passive and now he is overshoving 3x pot ; is this a bluff or ridiculously some sort of overvalued AT? Very unlikely. Unless you saw him be a post flop aggro monkey earlier, most definitely fold.
    Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call? Quote
    11-09-2011 , 05:30 PM
    The most you should call in this spot is about tree fiddy. And I'm not even kidding. A better question would be, can you fold KT or 99 in this spot.
    Merge NL 10 Tough deep stack collision spot with nut straight on paired board. Do you call? Quote

          
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