Maybe I'm giving V2 too narrow a range and too wide a continuing range. Since I hold AK, if I put him on TT+ and AJ+ there are 57 combos that 3 bet and 12 that continue (maybe even only 6.) So a 4bet is most likely +EV (and gets better the wider I make his iso range.)

This is 100% what I was thinking. There were plenty of soft spots at the table with good sized stacks and I only saw potential disaster with this hand but now... I'm not certain folding was correct (I think it was but I'm not sure.)

Who said I was investing half my stack to fold?

Where did I say that?

And when is 70bb half of 300bb?

No but it is ~25% and anything other than a c/f on the flop is either potentially committing or a large mistake. We miss 2/3 of the time and the 1/3 of the time we do hit we lose quite often as well.

There is an unstated assumption that we cannot win the hand without going to showdown.

We have stronger hands more often than villian.

We have a tighter image than villian.

And all of our post flop bets have the implied threat of 300bbs.

There is a very significant chance that we win this a ton on the flop.

Wow this is a 4bet 100%. I'm betting 60bbs.

V1 plays like an idiot so IMO his range is all ace highs, broadways, pocket pairs etc.

V2 will 3bet and hope to get stacks in against V1 with 77+, AK, AQ, AJ maybe even KQ (depending on how loose V1 is. You know the situation best)

You have AK which CRUSHES V2s range as well as V1. I would raise to 60BB here and hope V1 gets his stack in. V2 has to fold unless he has AA and KK (you have blockers). I don't know what he is capable of with QQ.

If he 5 bets its a fold. If he flats, cbet any flop.

What's your plan when you miss the flop which happens over half the time? The pot will be over 150bb on the flop and we'll be first to act, I really don't want to have to stick in another 80bb+ in on a any kind of flop that doesn't have a A or K. To be honest even when we do spike or A or K I wouldn't be happy getting it in on the flop with our 230bb.

Hand had me all f'd up at the time so I erred on the side of caution and folded. Now I believe I had more FE than I figured do to my image and a little wider iso'ing range (although I don't think it's sooo wide.) Can't say I agree with cbetting most flops though as b/folding flops I miss can get expensive and look stupid. Card elimination is the main reason I think I made a mistake (that and giving V2 too much credit for a big hand.)

I plan on betting and getting a ton of folds.

And when they don't fold?

Also I don't know V2's stance on QQ

Put yourself in his shoes.

Say the fish calls and he calls with QQ.

Flop is 222.


He has a PF 4-bettor betting into a main and side pot.
So he knows that it is always going to showdown.

You c-bet say 100bb - he is in a pretty tough spot because your range is KK+ and he might not even expect you to do this with AK.

I think he releases a ton.

I think you have to judge what you think he does with AA- JJ.
The wider he peels PF the more inclined you should be to 4-bet because you are creating more dead money to take away on the flop.


But really the most important advice is unless there is a fish at the table as deep as you and V2 - I really think you should leave the table.

If you believe that V2 is a better player and he has position on you - and like here you might have poor relative position in alot of spot - then your expected value on every bb above that of the largest fish stack might indeed be negative on average. Thus the compensation for being at a soft table is discounted or maybe even totally offset by the better player playing 300bb deep versus you.

We are on villains direct left so I definitely wouldn't leave the table. Most the time we will be committing nearly 200b's on the hope that villain can lay down an overpair, really not a huge fan of it.

So you dont think he folds to a bet with an overpair.
Yet you are not psyched if you flop top pair with an SPR under 2?

Ok.

And yet you want to stay at the table with this theoretical perfectly playing villian 300bb just cause we have position on him?

Big difference between calling a bet with Q's on a 9 high flop then calling a bet on an A high flop.

This is what I was thinking when I first read the hand. 3 betting this hand puts you in a reaaal tough spots. So if you 3 bet him and he ships you are pretty screwed and he almost always has you crushed. If he flats you have to give him a lot of credit here. So if you miss on the flop its even more of a disgusting spot. Hitting an A on the flop you pretty much have to get it in but if he ships over youre lead I throw up a bit and hope for a chop. Now if you hit a K on the flop, lead out and get re raised I throw up again, call and jump of the waterfall when he shows AA.

Really tough spot to be in OOP. Take on for the team, fold and wait for a better spot IMO. Still a super sick spot.

This. OP is going to be OOP with a hand that usually misses on the flop against a good opponent - and playing for his entire stack! Or, he can fold with no loss of money other than the blind. Frankly, I'ld fold here - at least most of the time.

Yes, a big bet might well drive out V2, but could also end up costing dearly. Why gamble, when good play with the money wins in the long term? Fold here - and find a better spot to put the money in.

On the other hand, this thought just occured to me: What happens if OP shoves here? Takes away any guesswork later and maximizes fold equity against V2. Yes, loses when V2 has AA or KK, or perhaps even QQ and we miss - but win when V2 folds probably everything else (and maybe even KK and QQ.)

How does one figure the ev here?

Lee

Where are we shoving in this scenario? Are you saying 4bet shove? I call 4bet shoves a little wider specifically because AA in the hands of a decent player is either going to 4bet a normal amount or it will flat that 3bet. (i actually like flatting a good LAG villain w/ AA here). But i wouldnt "rep" AA by flatting here either.

But the more i think about it, is our LAG villain only going to call a 4bet w/ KK, AA?

It just seems like we risk a lot by shoving in this scenario to scoop up 2p2 Villain's 3bet and get it all in against Fish.

But that said, if im 2p2 villain in this scenario, i'm 3betting fish with a wide range hoping to signal to other deep stack stay the eff out. Unless i think other deep stack is good enough to know that I'm doing that super light.

For the record, I respect V2's game very much but I don't think he is better than I am. Our game's are different but our skills are comparable (we are easily 1 and 2 at the table, we avoid each other and I have position on him.) Not that it changes the hand at all but to be factual, I made a small mistake. There was a player in between us with 125BB who is not very strong (he was not involved in the hand.) If V1 had a bigger stack I 4bet in a second but because V2 raised to half of V1's stack I thought it narrowed his range as he was very likely to get it in (as I believe that was what he envisioned.) Like I said before though, through card elimination I could have expected V2 to fold more often than not but I don't think folding was a huge mistake.

I like folding better than flatting.

Digger makes a good argument for raising BIG, but I'm not too comfortable in that spot deepstacked and don't have much experience with it.

This sums it up imo.

When V2 flats your 3bet it's almost never AA, so you're healthy cbet on the flop will take it down most times he doesn't his his set with 99-QQ, because he knows his whole stack is at risk and you can easily have AA with your line.

The amount of money you win in this spot by making V2 fold preflop or on the flop more than makes up for the times he shows up with AA and KK. Unless you have a pretty solid read he's holding one of those two hands, I think pumping it to ~$70 and cbetting the flop ~$120 is +EV.

That said, it increases your varience quite a bit, and there are much softer spots in these games. So I'm not one to hate on players who choose to avoid these spots.

Ur argument about V2 folding PF quite often is strong but ur numbers are a little off. 4bet to 60-70BB creates a 127-173 pot (if V2 doesn't shove) and leaves us with 230-240BB behind.

Questions

Why can't V2 flat with AA and KK? He probably isn't going to flat with anything less than QQ+.

How big do u cbet? It's a b/f when u miss and he shoves which really f'n blows.

Do u feel comfortable cbetting a flop like QT7r?

Which do u figure is a bigger mistake: folding PF or losing 160BB+ (60BB+ if he shoves PF) with AKo to the only other tough spot at the table?

Should I pick up my skirt, grab my balls and make some f'n money? (I am a bit of a variance/bankroll nit.)

folding is fine. i personally like calling altho i think 3 betting to like 52bb or something isn't bad. i mean i kinda like all options in this spot.

I think we have some room for villain reads at this point. Most of the live players I encounter aren't capable of flatting in this situation with AA, because they see so much $$ in the pot + your strong line, so they're salivating about the chance to get it in as a 4-1 favorite. In fact, generally I think pushing with KK+ would be villain's optimal line. Players capable of flatting are probably putting you on a big hand and are less likely to try to get too tricky. Either way, you should pretty quickly be able to assess which villains are capable of this raise/call play with AA, KK and rule out most who aren't.

Also, I see plenty of villains calling your 3-bet with less than QQ. This is also read dependent, but I encounter many villain's in my 1-2 game who will call with 99+ AK, AQs in position here to see what you do on the flop.

I cbet enough on most flops to be fairly confident villain's reraise will be so large he must commit his stack. This practically eliminates the chance we're being bluffed, since villain should be putting us on a hand we're stacking off with at this point. So now, villain is down to fold or push if he hit his monster.

There may be flops like QT7 which are a bit scary, though QJ9 is probably worse, so we can slow down if necessary. But there may still some merit in betting since we've picked up additional outs on these flops. And let's not forget we're spiking an A on the flop ~1/3 of the time, right?

I'm a variance nit too, so don't feel alone. I don't think you're making a huge mistake by skipping this type of situation in light of all the easier spots in these games to print money, but I'm pretty sure it's a fairly +EV situation overall. And raising>folding>calling imo.

Avoiding "tough" spots by folding will increase your variance not decrease it.

Its 300bb not farking 3 million dollars.

Have you even run the EV on how much money you are making from the folds and the fish alone?