Table has been full of action all night. I bought in for $200, i'm sitting at $1,240 after 4 hours thanks for catching a couple flush/straight draws. Interesting thing, BB and MP have been steaming over each other after BB got sucked out by MP on the river.

MP ($140) OVTP tight donkey
CO Hero ($1240)
BU ($540) tight grinder, Doesn't really call flop unless he's hit TP or better. Only calls preflop with premium hands and pocket pairs.
BB ($240) no idea what his play is he'll call down small pots with ace high but no big pots.


all folds
MP limps in for $2
Hero is dealt QJ hero raises to $15
BU calls, sb folds, BB calls, MP calls
Flop $61 (4 players)
KT2
BB bets $25, MP raises to $50, hero calls, BU calls, BB reraises to $150, MP moves all in, Hero ?????

Can we call here with an OESD in a 4 way pot with another player deep behind us? With that $150 reraise I know BB was aiming at putting MP all in but that bet made him pot committed. I also have a very tight grinder behind us who is deep stack in position.

It's pretty much calling $100 more to win 400 right now. I would also be playing squeezed on the turn if BU just calls here. There is a high chance that BB would move all in on the turn regardless of what comes.

raise less pf (JK... well not really but its not worth arguing over)

if your read is right, It feels like BU has KT or some kind of set. Maybe AK.. but if hes really that tight i think he would have timing tell issues with AK (ie, its something hes really going to have to think about before he overcalls a bet and a raise). Also i assume hes going to 3bet ak at least some of the time.

If bu has a set, youre not getting the odds to draw to the straight.

if i continue in the hand, i just get it all in right there. The rest of the money is going in on the turn anyway, usually, when your equity is cut in half.

Either way, im not very surprised if bu shows down TT here.

that's exactly what my reads were. Someone has AK, someone has KT or even a set. If someone has AK that's really cutting our outs for a straight.

...at first glance I think u can shove here and always have enough pot equity no matter what happens (BTN comes along or doesn't.) I'd appreciate seeing the math on this though (or I'll do it when I get home... BB post lol.)

...although somebody is likely holding 1 of ur outs

shove or fold for sure though (that I do know.)

well im not really worried about anyone but the button here... with the other players stacks and the size of the pot you can just get it on in. but button is deep and appears to have a pretty narrow (and strong) range. If hes fairly tight, i dont think hes showing up with KT too often after having cold called a raise pf (even from position). Also, i feel that hes more like to slowplay a set here than he is top two.

equity wise youre fine if no one has a set.

lol 2+2 on the go. I would have shoved here if it wasn't for BU. I'd love to see the math on this too i'm going to grill some clams for now

Wow.

This is one of those hands where at first it looks like an easy fold but then I start to look at all the dead money out there and think about our actual equity in the hand and my saliva glands go into overdrive just thinking about this very juicy, very sexy pot.

Our pot odds
If we assume that button gets out of the way, then we only need to commit $175 to win $636. That's odds of around 27.5%.

Our equity
Lets take a look at our equity even if we assume a really strong range for our opponents. If BU has AK, MP has TT and BB has 22 then our hand still has equity of about 27.9% suggesting that we have the pot odds to call. So under this scenario:

27.9% of the time our expectation is +$471
72.1% of the time our expectation is -$175

=> (27.9% x +471) + (72.1% x -175) = 131.4 + -126.2 = $5.20

Under this scenario (with these hand ranges and with the button folding), we win $5.20 on average every time we shove and get called by the BB.

I think you'll find that this equity is roughly the same under most obvious scenarios because the remaining aces and nines appear to be clean outs... we either hit them and the board doesn't pair (meaning we win) or we don't. Interestingly, the more made hands better than a pair we are up against the better because this reduces the chance of the board pairing.

So at first glance there doesn't seem to be a downside to continuing because we are around break even in equity under most obvious scenarios as long as the button gets out of the way.

The downside
If button decides to commit to the hand then that completely changes the equation. We now need to commit $525 to win $1461 which is pot odds of around 36% (compared to our equity of around 28%). We no longer would have the required equity to stick around.

Also if either BB or MP happens to also have QJ then around 28% of the time we are only drawing to a chop which also drastically changes the equation. Given the tilt factor described between BB and MP this would seem a distinct possibility.

Conclusion
This is one juicy pot and we have reasonable equity. Getting all our chips in against only BB and MP is usually going to be a break even play (e.g. positive expectation of $5.20 as in the above example). We are never massively ahead. However, sometimes disaster strikes; either the button decides to commit to the hand or either BB or MP have the same hand as us and we are only drawing to a chop meaning the pot we win will not compensate for the times we lose. On that basis, we should fold.

at first i was like "hmm i fold" then i saw all the chips on the table and i started tanking on it really hard. I folded in the end and a 9 comes >_>

Don't mean to be result oriented or anything but shouldn't we be folding to the 50$ raise?

Hero's hand is so incredibly well concealed and somebody has a monster. It already looks like MP has committed himself to the hand and we can't know that BB is going to come back over the top at this stage.

At a guess, I would say that we're often spending $50 here for a chance to win at least $286 (this includes the money in the middle, BB's expected $25 call of MP's min raise and MP's entire stack). That would be implied odds of around 17%. Our chance of hitting the gin card on the turn is around 14%-16% depending on whether one of our outs is taken.

We also have the opportunity to stack the button ($540!) but we can't know whether he is sticking around at this stage.

Its not straight forward but my sense is that OP is right to stick around and give button a chance to hit top 2 pair with his AK. Such massive implied odds. Its hard for him to put us on QJ given our preflop raise.

You forget to take into account that hands that will pay us on the turn will likely have a redraw.

Using your guess : if villain has a 17% chance to redraw to a boat on the turn we end up calling 50$ to win 175$ (236$ * 83% - 125$ * 17%) instead of 236$.

Good point. I'd be interested in other's views as to whether we need to call MP's minraise in the hope that button calls and we can stack him when the A comes.

I called the $50 min raise for a chance to stack all of the players in here. I was putting the range here as AA, AK, KT, or a set (this would be bad here but very unlikely). If someone has 2 pairs or even a set, the fact that there are so many callers means they are likely to hold each others outs thus reducing the chance of rivering a fullhouse. If say an Ace or 9 comes, I would get paid off because both the MP and BB are pot commited and knowing BU he probally has AK or better which makes it hard for him to fold on a such a big pot. QJ is very hard hand to put me on here especially if a 9 comes (whoever has king still thinks they're good).


What makes his hand hard is the deepstack button. I dont know what he's going to do. If he decides to over the top me here, do I fold after calling another $100 or if a 9 or ace doesn't hit on the turn do I continue?
If the button was not in this hand, I would have insta shoved right here. I wish i had the button on this hand :-(.

You had/have no reason to worry about the button who is deep. If he was really that tight he would of a) raised a set here all day after all that action or b) folded two pair or bottom set if you overshoved. Button rarely ever has a set and if he does we have 8 outs which isnt to horribly bad. I am thinking you kind of got caught up in a sh** storm and at the moment didn't realize that the button who is tight grinder would probably never play a set this way (probably not KK pre either). I'd shove here. Equity is pretty good.

If you call the extra 100 from MP and then button comes over the top you should call. It now costs $335 to win a pot of $1371 giving us pot odds of 24%. Our equity in the hand is around 28% and we can't place too much weight on the fact that someone else could conceivably have QJ.

But don't call on the flop for reasons stated above

I think you're right about this. I was seeing chips fly everywhere and looking down at just a draw I started worrying about how the BU was going to react. The whole I kept thinking "if i call here, he's going to shove on me" which would put me in an even harder spot. I know how the hand played out but looking back without knowing the results, it was obvious that BU did not have KK or TT. He would have reraised pre with KK and definately raise hard with TT here. Slowplaying a set is not his style.

Well, I think I demonstrated in my earlier post that as long as button gets out of the way and no-one else has QJ then shoving here is a break-even play.

Does that make the play worthwhile?

Button is committing here some non-zero percentage of the time. Sinjitsu made the comment that he would not be surprised if button has TT (he is a tight player who probably puts hero on AK, KK or AQ). So I guess the question becomes how often is button sticking his chips in here?

Also, why are we so keen to commit 250bb in a spot where we seem to be break even most of the time but horribly behind sometimes. Where is the positive expectation in this? Is there some metagame objective I've missed?

I'm no David Sklansky or Dr Spock but I don't feel like the case for shoving has been made apart from the fact that the pot looks juicy and its fun to gamble. How is shoving a winning play?

Even if we take button out of the equation its still just a break-even play not a winning play.

True if only one of them has a set. If they both have a set, or one has a set and the other has 2 pairs it becomes +EV.

By the thinnest of margins...

If button gets out of the way then our pot odds are 27.5% and our equity against two sets is probably around 27.9% (the TT, 22, AK scenario I referred to earlier). I'm comfortable referring to that kind of situation as EV neutral rather than +EV. We only make $5.20 on average in that scenario.

Surely that $5.20 can't offset the possibility that button sticks around and spoils our party.

If Button decides to commit then we will have made a mistake by not mucking because our required equity was 36% but we don't have that.

I do not agree with OP and AcePlayerDeluxe that BU can't have a TT or 22 here and that we shouldn't be worried about him. He cold-calls a $50 bet with the original bettor (BB) on the flop yet to act and $190 behind. He either has a monster or is not the "Tight Grinder" he was labeled by OP. If I'm BU with just a king, I fold- too much action for it to be good. If I'm BU with QJ, I still fold because I can't count on the action being capped by BB at $25 more. Obviously it's an easy call for BU here for $50 if it went BB, bet, MP call, Hero call- but BB can still raise. BUT, if I'm BU with a set I love the smooth call here, giving the BB a chance to shove, MP calls and I'm in the middle of a monster pot with the near-nuts. The 2 aggressors on the flop are MP and BB and they both have stacks that I want to get in the middle vs my set. They also have hands that are likely drawing near dead to a set. The only exact 2 cards that BU is worried about drawing is QJ. I let a card peel and get the $$$ in on the turn.

I agree with SomeDonkey that we should be worried about what BU and/or BB is going to do after the $25 min-raise by MP and that simply smoothing the raise $50 seems spewy. That is a key point in the hand where I think some deep thought needs to be put into it. Raising there would have forced BU to play his hand face up if he has a monster or fold out his QJ if that's what he has. By smooth-calling the flop, yes we have a well-disguised draw but we are not considering anything but are purely hoping to get a smooth call by the BB, not a re-raise. So I think you must consider the 3 or 4 possible scenarios that will ensue and if you will torch $50 (fold) or call off to those scenarios or not. I also think BU was over-looked as a contender on the flop as it was pretty unlikely in Hero's mind that BU was coming along without a monster (he should muck all 1p hands here, right?), which he is generally unlikely to have. Basically, I would say to myself - "What am I gonna do if:"

(facing the original $25 BB bet, $50 MP raise)
Scenario 1) Hero calls, BU raises, BB shoves, MP shoves - Hero?
Scenario 2) Hero raises, BU calls or raises (hand face up), BB & MP irrelevant now ?
Scenario 3) Hero calls, BU folds, BB shoves, MP shoves - Hero?

Not that you can truly or exactly calc all the scenarios and pot-odds on the fly at this point in the hand, but you at least have to have some forethought with 3 other players in a big pot holding a OESD about what is likely to occur and how you will react to each occurrence. I think your best play would have been to fold-out for the $50 bet by MP, or if not, get the $$$ in and if BU wakes up with a monster that can call then use your "get there" to hit a A or 9.

As played, smells like a cooler and therefore they all have each others outs and probably none of them holding your outs. I think getting it in is probably slightly better than folding as far as options go, but I'm nearly certain BU (if truly a tight grinder) has a big hand and is calling.

I didnt say he cant have TT or 22, just more than likely he doesnt. I came to this conclusion from OP's read and typical 1/2 game flow. Guys that play tight solid and have a chip stack with this much action in front of them in a 1/2 game (heck even higher levels im sure) are going to put in another raise with a set, especially bottom or middle set. Not too many players at these levels sit on their sets in this scenario with a somewhat drawy board. You know this and I know this. If BTN did happen to play his set that way good for him we need to watch out for him next time, but nothing that the OP has said in his read is that the BTN is a super solid 1/2 pro grinder with tricks up his sleeve. To me he sounds straight ABC tag solid. That player is like 99% putting a raise in here. (I know you will try this crap on me now... GFY)

Our equity is pretty close here and I am willing to gamble it up a little on 50/50 being this deep against a couple of short (compared to us anyways) stacks. I just am not that worried about the BTN at all in this hand.

Oh and.... ^

Here's what PokerStove has to say, giving all 3 opponents the same range, but allowing for one to also have K2 (sometimes happens at this level).

Given that OP is getting almost 3 - 1 on his money for a shove (assuming that button folds and BB calls), and is a slightly over 4-1 dog, seems to me that folding is correct. If the button does make the call, then the math is even worse for OP.

At least, that's how I see it.

24,442,560 games 0.445 secs 54,927,101 games/sec

Board: Kc Ts 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.175% 09.93% 09.25% 2426658 2260173.67 { QdJd }
Hand 1: 27.069% 20.41% 06.66% 4989336 1627013.83 { KK, TT, 22, AKs, KTs, QJs, AKo, KTo, QJo }
Hand 2: 27.069% 20.41% 06.66% 4989336 1627013.83 { KK, TT, 22, AKs, KTs, QJs, AKo, KTo, QJo }
Hand 3: 26.687% 20.99% 05.70% 5130078 1392950.67 { KK, TT, 22, AKs, KTs, K2s, QJs, AKo, KTo, K2o, QJo }

We are break-even at best so why is everyone so keen to risk 260bb on a probably break-even play?

Is there a metagame reason? i.e. "if you get into a pot with me you play for stacks"

Its not an easy decision when you're at the table but when you run through the maths, I think there is a clear answer to this one (even though it may be the least 'fun' option).