Villain is villian1318. pretty spewy korean. is it standard or am i being result oriented? i am on a downer so i have been kinda lost. i felt 3 was a good river for me and killed a huge part of his range.

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $123.00
BTN: $586.60
Hero (SB): $422.00
BB: $82.00
UTG: $406.00
MP: $1497.60

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with J J
UTG raises to $12, 2 folds, BTN calls $12, Hero calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($40.00) 3 9 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $32, BTN calls $32, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($136.00) 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN requests TIME, BTN bets $105, Hero calls $105, UTG folds

River: ($346.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $437.60 all in, Hero calls $273 all in

I would have 3bt pf, but calling is also ok imo, though not really comfortable after the flop against 2 opp.

I would have bet the flop (app 3/4 pot), the turn (if BTN had called the flop) and the river (if BTN had called the river) (each app 1/2 pot), the flop because I wouldn't like to give a free card here, the turn to make any draws pay, the river as a freeze bet.

As played, I am really worried about the time-request of villain on the turn. He had 2 checks and some time at the flop, this looks a bit like a bluff-request. Also, the bet sizes look a bit too big for a str8 draw/semi-bluff. A lot of ppl would take the free card here, which makes the draw even more unlikely. I would prob fold the river, the whole line of villain fits a set too well. After ur 2 calls and the 3 on the river he should either put u on a draw, A9 or maybe ur cards, so going all-in with a set is reasonable as he can expect u to call a lot. And the missed draw wouldn't call any bet-size so no need to keep it small. The all-in also makes a bluff unlikely as he wouldn't need to bet that much. The only other hand that would (not really - but kinda) justify villain's line is A9.

What do you expect to beat?

Villain isnt valueshoving worse here very often.

jt is obv unlikely. If he has a busted draw(jt/67/qt) he is checking the river behind a decent amount of the time given that u look very strong after turncall.

I dont think you can call the river

i think i was leaning towards a fold on the river till the 3. i dont know if it changes a lot. i am not sure.

Yes the 3 makes 33 less likely/gives you lead over 98 but it also reduces his bluffing frequency.
So i dont think that the 3 is much different to a 2

Not sure I agree with this.

Button's range includes A9, 10 10, 98 and lots of drawey hands like 4h5h, Qh 10h etc. Realistically we are only beat if he specifically holds 99 or 88.

Given that villain has a rep for being spewy I'd say this is a fairly easy call. Hero hasn't represented that big a hand and villain could easily think A9 is a value shove.

98 also beats us. I agree that TT is in his range, but for any other hand that we beat villain has to be really spewy. CALLLING (not betting) the flop with 45, QT etc is very, very unlikely. His line fits best 99, 88, 98s. TT, A9 are possible. Anything else would be almost crazy. If that's our read I'd call, otherwise I fold.

You can't fold. This is as bad of a range as I can imagine (actual range is obviously wider).

Board: 3s 9h 8c 4h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.500% 65.00% 02.50% 78 3.00 { QQ-88, 33 }
Hand 1: 32.500% 30.00% 02.50% 36 3.00 { JJ }

So villain has:

lots of drawing hands?
qts, the rare jts and sometimes 67s who all check turn or river pretty often.
worse hands for value?
come on look at the action.
he is valueshoving worse close to never

So ya his valuerange is pretty small but i still think that a call isnt profitabel here

btw you snap 8x here right?Because If you are call jj here you have to snap 8x

8x > jj in this spot

This is complete nonsense, no offence.

na just joking I snap k2 high here all day

Board: 3s 9h 8c 4h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.364% 36.36% 00.00% 48 0.00 { K2o }
Hand 1: 63.636% 63.64% 00.00% 84 0.00 { 99-88, 33, QhTh, JcTc, JsTs, 7c6c }

cashy, we might want to call with a certain frequency on the river and therefore we might call JJ and fold 8x even if theres no difference in value between those hands..

I call the river btw.

so u are friend of stove ok

Board: 3s 9h 8c 4h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.787% 29.79% 00.00% 14 0.00 { 86s }
Hand 1: 70.213% 70.21% 00.00% 33 0.00 { QQ, 99-88, 33, QhTh, JcTc, JhTh, JsTs, 7h6h }


Board: 3s 9h 8c 4h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.212% 21.21% 00.00% 21 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 78.788% 78.79% 00.00% 78 0.00 { QQ, 99-88, 33, QhTh, JcTc, JhTh, JsTs, 7h6h }

If that's villain's range, then yeah. Not including at least TT for value in that range is a mistake imo. And that's what will (does) make K2 a bad call.

edit: WhyTF would you intentionally omit TT in your stoves, that's what ****s up all of your logic and stoves.

If we assume villain isnt valueshoving a lot of worse hands here which is the case pretty often 8x is not the same as JJ it is BETTER

jt gets far more likely and 88 gets far less likely if we hold 8x which gives us a huge equity boost

eddi: u cant add all tt combos cause villain is checking at least on street pretty often. QQ 3bets a lot preflop too. So given that we added ALL QQ combos and not many drawing hand combos this range seems pretty accurate tbh.

But what do i know? Im a terrible nit

I guess u have to call since vilian is spewy but my problem with that is any decent player is never value shoving worse so ur turning your hand into a bluff catcher here essentially.

Prolly doesn't change much about this thread but 98 does not beat us after the 3 on the river.

We only lose to 88 and 99 (and the super rare 33) and our hand is grossly underrepped. I think this is a very easy call.

what am i not seeing?

listen to cashy here

i think the hand is played fine as long as you fold river

Villain is pretty bad and I would expect to see 98, TT, and A9 a decent amount