Any questions/threads/comments about WRs should go here. So fire away. If you have a question about sample size, want to know what WR to aim for, or even just want to show people how good you are at statistical math...this thread is for you!

Ok, I'll start.

1/2nl live, 800+ hours. Win rate of 12.70/hr. The majority of this comes from the same group of players, most are terrible, but some have probably picked up on some of my tendencies. Maybe I would possibly have a better win rate against unknowns?

Hoping to move up to 2/5nl by the end of the year, but not sure if I'm beating 1/2nl enough yet.

your cap WR at 1/2 (assuming normal $200 BI) is usually going to be $20/hr. So your hourly isn't bad. I would suggest shotting the 500 game on the weekends and seeing how you feel in them

(a quick note on sample. 800hrs of live is roughly 28K hands. Most online players play this in less than a month. So just remember that although it seems like a lot of play given the hours...it is a relatively small sample size)

FPPs>>>>>>>winrate

Never had rakeback on any site. Are Stars FPP comparable to rakeback you could get from FT?

Already cashed in a bunch under the new system. Seems pretty good.

/thread

is 70k enough of a sample size to reasonably estimate a wr?

Currently beating 50nl for 5bb/100 over that sample.

Is shotting 100 in the next month or so appropriate or will that wr = me getting crushed up there?

edit: what I meant to say was nom nom FPPs

what is a win rate ?

its probably the bare min that you would want to start estimating from. ive had 100k stretches where i beat 100 for 5ptbb/100 and ive had two 100k b/e stretches sandwiching it

Rakeback is roughly $10/hour for me, so I make roughly $10/hour.

Is there anyway to get rake back on an existing account? Sorry to derail.

I DON'T WANT TO WIN BB, I JUST WANT FPP

Move up liberally while still at the micro stakes. 70k at 50 is enough to go with IMO. I think if you stay at NL2-NL50 long enough to gather an accurate historical WR, you've stayed there too long

try rakebackpros.com that's how I did it.

+1

Is it possible to go on a 60k hand heater?

That would depend on the variance of your samples. Can we really talk about anything here outside of generalities without knowing individuals sample standard deviations?

but wHat if that "accurate" wr is between 0-2?

yes. And I mean this with respect, you are probably on one.

very much so, yes. 100K hand simulator I love this tool, really lets you know just how susceptible we are to variance

Being a marginal winner at NL50/100 teaches you more than being a marginal x 2 winner at NL10-25 IMO

You gonna get raped.

Yes.

I once had a 20k hand stretch with a winrate of 15ptbb/100 (30bb/100). Sustainable imo.

I've played live maybe four times but I've seen a lot of people claim higher winrates than that at $1/2. I've been thinking about scraping together a live bankroll and am just curious about live winrates.

I think I would be playing mostly just weekends and driving to A.C. so maybe I would be playing super soft tables all the time, but the fact that a year of poker live is only 28k hands is scary. I guess people could be winning at twice that clip but just running hot. And the people that really crush $1/2 prolly move up to $2/5 pretty quickly.

I don't even have a question I don't think.. just thanking for the info about the hours compared to the hands played. Definitely eye-opening.

This post sucked it was just ramblings, apologies.

in general these people are full of ****. but yeah i think you can get it a little higher.

Ramblings is what this thread is for!

KurtSF's collected wisdom on live 1/2 winrates:

* theoretical max winrate is $20-25 per hour

* yes, Phil Ivey could make $70/hour against the collection of clowns down at your local card barn, but you're not Phil Ivey, so why worry about it

* most people who claim a higher winrate suffer from one of two basic flaws, most common is a fundamental misunderstanding of sample size (I made $500 last Saturday and $400 this Saturday ZOMG thats $120/hr!), and slightly less common is ego interference (they forget or don't record their big losing session(s) so in their winning sessions they clear $60/hr)

* it doesn't matter much anyway, if you're playing for fun have fun and be happy you're a winner, if you're playing for a living you will be in 2/5 before long