Have 1k hands on villain at various stakes (100-400). He's playing 46/22/4.8 3bet%. Folding to 3bets ~70%. Folds to cbets in 3bet pots flops (1/4), turns (2/3). He's not fighting for a ton of pots, playing mostly passively in single raised pots (and folding postflop quite a bit).


Dunno if the guy uses a HUD but hero is something like 22/17/8% 3bet. Not super barrely post.

The 4x pre was a little unusual. I've seen him mostly going 2 or 3x I think, so I'd assume it's a slight sizing tell that he's stronger. I could have cold called pre, but I wanted to iso (beast reg behind me in big blind), think I actually should have gone a blind or 2 bigger preflop.

Anyways, turn sucks super balls and I think the fold is fine. Figured it's a set or turned straight almost always. Wondering if anyone plays this differently? Obviously bet folding this much equity and implied odds is kind of a disaster... My sizing is also kind of awkard leaving close to exactly 1 psb left on the river. What about with other parts of my range? QQ+ should I just be bet/folding vrs this kind of dude or pot controlling at some point

turn is a terrible card for your range and you are making yourself really vulnerable here by betting. you have plenty of equity to check call most betsizes ott and your implied odds are good for the times you hit your flush or straight otr. obv you can also bluffcatch on K/Q rivers a lot of the time.

Makes a lot of sense. Ty.

Showing down K hi unimproved sucks but I guess you can't have it both ways

Think you still credibly rep 99~AA when you bet turn, I actually think you played it fine. By betting turn we can fold out a lot of marginal hands that are beating us. Stuff like 77, 88, 98s and maybe even some tens.

That was the hope. But in hindsight when those hands pick up additional equity it's optimistic to think they won't peel. With the knowledge that he jams turns in this spot I think we actually set up a nice 3 barrel to fold out 1 pair otr assuming brick

I usually bet turn, I think check calling kind of sucks with out any good reads.

I think you played it fine,

what? how is turn terrible for our range? what does it mean to "make ourselves vulnerable"? why does having enough equity/river playability to xc turn make it a better option than betting?

377.74 to call to win 1128.48, so you need 33% to call and break even, which we don't have, which makes this turn bet an absolute tragedy. Just choose other hands to bluff the turn with in this spot (maybe KQo, 77, 88), and stick this specific hand into a c/c, because we can profitibly c/c very often.

As far as the checking vs betting the turn in general, what hands are we trying to get folds from that didn't fold the flop? 77, 88, A9, A10

Board: 9c Tc 6d 4h
equity win
Hand 0: 40.152% 40.15% { KcQc }
Hand 1: 59.848% 59.85% { 88-77, ATs-A9s, ATo-A9o }

There's nothing that range can do to us to cause us to make a mathematical mistake, so is it worth it to plow into hands that we don't have continuing equity against in order to remove this range's equity? We could just allow this range to realize it's equity and also ensure we'll have the right odds to draw against the top of his range.

It seems like with this specific hand, we don't want anything to happen to rob us of it's real value, and we will have plenty of other hands to barrel with on the turn to take it's place.

Great post ty and 100% agree. We can also create a turn x/x range that can go bet/chk/overbet that puts most people's likely super capped range in a world of hurt

He has other floats as well imo AJ AQ, type hands. I think all you really show with your stove is that we do well vs the bottom of his range. So not really sure what that stove is for? We have FE and decent EQ so I choose to bet rather then c/c , Unless I had reason that he will jam light on the turn I don't see a reason to c/c. When he jams our EQ is not great. So I don't mind folding. The range you did a stove for doesn't jam the turn. It either calls or folds, in which case that is fine. I think he calls the turn often but still think that he have some FE and there are a few rivers that I would barrel( not a ton of rivers fwiw maybe (Aces and 4's)

I'd rather bet the turn with one additional combo of absolute air, and remove this hand from my turn betting freq and use it to c/c.

The stove was to show how our hand performs vs the hands were trying to fold out, and how taking the alternative (sacrificing fold equity vs that portion of his range) to realize all of your drawing equity as well as adding at least one flush draw to your c/c range... It should be worth it over the course of our lifetime.

If it's a bluff, it's beatiful.