This is an interesting spot. My guy says he has 99. Your line is standard, and I cant see him doing this with AQ given you have KK and AA still. Imo if he is decent he wont have any 2x here. Perheps he could have 66 that floats flop. But honestly with the lack of draws it has to be 99.
On one hand I'm thinking like, how can you fold he reps such a thin range, while on the other I'm like, this is never a bluff. Tricky spot.
I honestly probably play this identically to you upto river.
Going to see what GTOWizard does out of curiousity.
Interesting, it basically likes your line and is pure calling river, which I am not too shocked by.
Thank you very much, sir. He had indeed 99. I checked the turn because I didn't want to bet 2 streets into AQ. He checked turn behind, so my 75% bet on the river looks like a bluff. After all this though process I couldn't fold my under representative straight against his raise, especially for that price... I didn't think then for his bluff range, but I couldn't fold for 6 combos (66, 99) and MAYBE 2 combos of A2s.
I definitively would bet turn here as I think the 1/3 pot bet on the flop keeps our opponent's range wide enough we still have value. Is that wrong ?
Betting turn is fine, checking also fine. It's probably a mix in theory anyway. Which I'd lean toward more really depends on villain type/your dynamic with them.