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1) which draws will flat 2 streets if they can fold out our nuts on this particular flop with a simple X/R.
Not a clue what stakes you play, but you heavily overestimate the likelyness of people exploiting you here with a c/r. It's just not happening and most definitely not happening anywhere near enough if it does occur. People just don't c/r bluff much.
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2) your money makers are overpairs that will gladly call turn and river if 2 blanks come. And overcards that missed the flop can bluff turn and river on scare cards
Given that we can have bluffs as well I'd say hands like 99-QQ are peeling at least flop always and turn a very big % of the time. That's 24 combos that aren't folding to 2 barrels, which means we've already got the 2 streets of value you're talking about + the option to jam river.
You simply won't get 2 streets of value from his draws(granted he doesnt have many) because no one calls a river bet with a draw. Also it's not like villain can just randomly fire twice into us after we check, because what worse hands than said range are we calling with?
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This board is so volatile that even bad players will take advantage of a lot of scare cards to bluff because the only real hands you currently hold are AA and KK and a lot of overcards.
*any diamond complete potential flush draws,
*any Ax completes potential AcXc,
*5x complets the OESD of 99
*9x complete the set of 99 (that was drawing to the oesd, and the GS+ OP of *TT
*Tx will complete the OESD of 99 and the OP+ GS, and the occasional JTs GS
You're very perceptive and clearly know the rules of the game. But it's all so rare to have a villain bluff even on these boards. Plus if we take all your points into consideration and the amount of dreadful turns why should we even give free cards. At least on the flop we can justify value betting vs a range we beat, on about 50% of the turns we cant.
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hands that vilain has in his range that raise:
1) sets (77,88), straight (T9s,54s, normally in their range but a lot of microstakes vilain are to tight to PFR/call with them so reduce the combos on these),
2) combo draws, 99, TT, JTcc, A5cc
3) Flush draws, AQcc, AJcc
That is like 50 combos, which is like 60% of his preflop calling range? Pretty sure we can both agree that just simply isn't true. If anything I'd go as far as saying he raises sets and straights here only and that's why flop is a bet/fold.
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let say vilain has 2 combos of straights in total, we are beat by 8 realistic combos, we are ahead of his draws and combo draws 10 combos. if we assume vilain does not play JT and A5 pre he still has a realistic flop raising range of 8 value vs 8 semibluffs. that is why folding KK vs a raise isnt optimal. flatting will result in the problems written above.
Not sure what you're on about now. You're arguing villain also raises 99-QQ which is 24 combos we're ahead of. Villain has 9 combos of sets, and not many/if any straights because he'd be calling SCs oop which just isn't happening much.
So once he raises we're realistically beat by 9 combos, but the 24 combos of worse are still calling our bets.
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Another disadvantage of betting the flop with KK is that you will too often be forced to play 3 streets or play a mediocre hand for stacks
Not exactly. I think we can make some safe assumptions based on population read that his 3bet calling range is a lot tighter than you make it out to be + that he's not c/r bluffing much if at all. Which means we can safely bet/fold this flop. Turn isn't exactly hard to play either given the fact that we hold the Kd.
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4) most vilains will protect JJ and QQ vs a flop cbet by raise/folding because this is where their OOP equity is maximal. if you include this you are ahead vs 65 % of is X/R range
This is just incorrect. I am 100% sure this is just not true. Which tbf, without being a dick does confirm my idea of you. You've got some wild assumptions going on that are very far away from the truth, at least in my experience. Your ranges for example are super wide and the fact that you'd assume an unknown at 10nl would c/r this much is just crazy.
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In conclusion, you want to get maximum value with your mediocre holding vs his mediocre holdings (99,TT,JJ, QQ) and bluffs that barrel into you vs check. most of those wont play 3 streets so they wont flat most turn cards because they cant face a potential river bet ( you dont have enough hands that will play Bet, bet, check in your range)
In conclusion I disagree with a lot of your assumptions. I don't know what they are based on, but certainly not on experience you gained while playing on Stars, because this just isn't happening at those stakes and not even at the stakes I play.
Villain will be making more calling mistakes than betting mistakes, and mostly because his range is very narrow. He's likely setmining a ton and won't be folding the flop with 99-QQ, he can also call a bunch of brick turns with TT-QQ(I'd add 99 too cause it's still an open ender) and this gives us 2 streets of value with the option to bet a third street. Whether thin or not, it's likely a play that nets us the most in the long run.
This isn't exactly a board, or the spot where villain will bluff much into us either, how many regs do you know who 3bet more than say 2% MP2 vs Mp3?
Say we check back flop and villain ''bluffs'' turn. What are we ever folding the river with that is calling turn? Or what hands do we have in our range that are worse than his hand, which most likely will be either a set or a pair between 99-QQ?
Anyways I talked a ton, I think readless flop is a bet/fold and I think we can easily justify both the bet for value obv + the fold once raised.
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fwiw i shove on his 3bet. i think his rang has a lot more draws than str8 set or 2 pairs.
You do that. You likely will be losing a ton in this spot.
K
(2 players)
