KJ top pair BTN vs blind, can i ever fold to triple? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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KJ top pair BTN vs blind, can i ever fold to triple?

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05-27-2015 , 10:42 PM

mottotom27

banned

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 1,372

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36553071

BTN: $10 (100 bb)
SB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.15 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $18.63 (186.3 bb)
CO: $10.69 (106.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J

3 folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.55) 6

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.35) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($3.35) 5

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.30, Hero calls $2.30

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villain 20/17 reg over a few hundred hands. it's a spot where when he triples i don't see him showing up with many bluffs, but we're just so high up in our range esp button vs blind so can we really consider folding? his overall AFq is 43%.

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05-27-2015 , 11:30 PM

bopolis

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 14,231

I think I call this as well as played but im probably 3betting pre for value

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05-28-2015 , 07:18 AM

mottotom27

banned

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 1,372

interesting, i 3bet KQo and KJs for value but KJo too weak imo, also i feel it plays well as a flat since it dominates a lot of weaker kings. on top of this, villain folds to resteals 70% of the time over a decent sample so i think it's better to be polarised with our 3bets vs this guy

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05-28-2015 , 07:25 AM

Kiwi_Shredder

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 1,336

Hand plays fine as a flat pre and happy to station in these positions. A, 9 or

river would be interesting. More to the point, I wonder if villain will commit to three barrels if he whiffs otr.

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05-28-2015 , 07:37 AM

mottotom27

banned

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 1,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kiwi_Shredder

Hand plays fine as a flat pre and happy to station in these positions. A, 9 or

river would be interesting. More to the point, I wonder if villain will commit to three barrels if he whiffs otr.

probably still calling on the 9 since i block TJ so the 9 doesn't scare me that much, but folding on the A or diamond. as for whether or not villain was likely to bluff river in the actual hand, i think most of the time he gives up when he misses his draw. added to this is the fact he doesn't cbet much (43% on the flop, but increases to 59% on the turn and 50% on the river), so taking everything into account i'm wondering if my river call is perhaps slightly -EV

however it would be a pretty huge exploitative adjustment to be folding KJ here since then we'd be folding our entire range basically. not sure if villains pick up on things like this tho

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05-28-2015 , 07:59 AM

Kiwi_Shredder

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 1,336

He can still be bombing away with the 12 JT combos remaining and it would be a waste to turn AT/AJ into a bluff :P I suspect he is a quality cbettor then, but I wouldn't give much credit to river stats unless >1k hands

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05-28-2015 , 08:02 AM

mottotom27

banned

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 1,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kiwi_Shredder

He can still be bombing away with the 12 JT combos remaining

but is he really gonna do this? i mean once we call twice we really look like we have a king and aren't gonna fold on a blank river

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05-28-2015 , 08:14 AM

Tiduspt

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 600

On one side you are at the top of your range, on the other side I dont see this V having many bluffs besides JT and some diamond turned flush draws. And since you have nothing more than a bluffcatcher and I dont see V bluffing enough I think you can fold.

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05-28-2015 , 08:16 AM

Kiwi_Shredder

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 1,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by mottotom27

but is he really gonna do this? i mean once we call twice we really look like we have a king and aren't gonna fold on a blank river

Re flop and turn my suggestion holds true but surely he realises otr he has no sdv and would assume you would 3b AK/KQ pre so he does block mid Kx nicely. He can put you in a **** spot with say K7s-K9s which are easy defends up until the river.

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05-28-2015 , 08:38 AM

#10

TWhelan

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Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 8,754

standard, pre is up to you both 3bet and flat are ok

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