Villain runs at 36/13/7.2 over 176 hands. No history as the stats are mined. Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $51.30
UTG: $65.90
Hero (MP): $66.70
CO: $66.10
BTN: $52.25
SB: $50.15

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, BB raises to $6.75, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($13.75) 9 6 5 (2 players)
BB bets $9, Hero raises to $59.95 all in

I like it. No other way to play it imo.

I think this ones close and probably +EV, against someone this aggro i dont mind calling and playing it like i would on a rainbow flop, as stacks will be ideal. I think the raise is called by AcA, KcK, QcQ, AcK, AxKc, AcKc which has us in bad shape, our fold equity should be >50% though.

why does every1 push though here? i just raise to 32 with pot sommits me obv and is basically the same as a shove.

What difference does this make then? Im not folding obviously so is there more FE or something to just making a raise?

Well played. IMO, Shove > Raise to 32, since as mentioned above... they both commit us, however the shove has to increase our fold equity.

nice played, but possible to see AA/KK/QQ and then ur ****ed probably

I dont like it at all.
Who is calling us?
AcKx is the only hand we are ahead of that calls.
I just call down here although the pot is big.
A push turns our hand into a bluff..

OK so ive been thinking about this on the drive home and im not so sure the raise is good here. Ill share my thoughts before i head out for the night..

When he 3bets us we have to put him on a fairly tight range as we raised from MP, so without reads and with his pfr at 13 i would say JJ+ Maybe TT and AK (obv if we open raised the button the whole scenario is different)...if Hero is getting out of line at all maybe a few other hands. So the standard way to play JJ here on a T 6 3 board is to call flop and fold to another big turn bet as the double barrell is nearly always QQ+...i hope im right to here.

So in this hand we are basically in theory turning our hand into a semi bluff by shoving the flop, i say semi-bluff because we want to fold out better hands, and when called we think we may have outs.

However I think the problem here is that we get called a high % of the time by better hands that have us crushed - his range for calling this shove is..

Definately - AcKc AcA KcK QcQ AcK AKc
Maybe/unlikely - AA KK QQ
V Unlikely - TT (would he 3bet pre?)

So basically i dont think we get in with the best hand even ~5% of the time, even with AcK villain is 49%

So best case scenario we are 51/49 in our favour
worst case scenario we are 7/93 against

So the whole hand comes down to how much fold equity we have in this spot. Firstly if villain is fairly competent at hand reading he will have to assume our hand range to be QcQ JcJ TcT 99 AcK AKc maybe AcQc or a AA KK that we didnt 4 bet preflop as of when we shove, so lets assume he is playing against that kind of range (i dont think air is in anyones range in a 3bet pot in this spot), so id imagine we fold out 9 combos of AK, 3/3/3 of QQ KK AA (i actually think he calls w AA KK without a club a fair amount as our range is fairly transparent) and maybe a TT if played.

He calls with AcK AKc (6 combos) AcKc (1) AcA (3) KcK (3) QcQ (3)

So overall id say we have (19:16 fold:call) for ~55% fold equity dependent on whether he folds overpairs without a c, so lets say ~50% fold equity.

When called however we have a $102 pot with ~25% equity or $25.25

So 50% of the time we win $23 in the pot, 50% of the time our expectation is $25.25

So in conclusion i think calling > folding > raising

I think raising has more problems than it would do with JJ on a rainbow flop as 1/2 of the AK hands will call with 50% equity. Incidentally i like a shove here with AcK AKc a lot more.

My apologies for the tl;dr nature of this post, this is just my thoughts so feel free to criticise.

Basically this is what it came down to. He could have a big ace with a club that could call, he could call with TT, or he could call with an overpair. Assuming his overpair doesnt have a club, we arent too far behind here with 11 outs twice. Of course he can also have a flush once in a while and dominate us, but that is rare. I dont really like calling off my stack here as I really dont want to see a club/A/K/Q because I am unsure of his range. If he fires any of those cards on the turn I have to fold. Lets not forget that this guy is decently loose aggro even though there is a small sample size. I think if this guy was a taggish then I would be more willing to take one off on the flop as the chance of being double barreled goes down dramatically.

He's not calling TT here unless he has the T of clubs, even then it's not a certainty

If he isnt calling with TT then he could also fold QQ here I think. He obviously isnt a great opponent so I really think its either he calls all overpairs or he folds everything but KK/AA. Looking at his stats I think he is calling all overpairs though. I think the way I played it is pretty optimal because he can either call me incorrectly sometimes or he will be folding incorrectly sometimes but he cant be doing the best of both worlds against me.

villains raising range is fairly tight, and unless hes as aggro pre as he is post we can assume a fairly 3bet range. (jj+,ak).

By shoving you basically fold out ak with no clubs and are flipping if youre called by ak with a club or youre facing the made flush (rarely).

In all other cases your dominated by an overpair, either your drawing to 2outs if hes got a club or you got 11outs which still leaves you in bad shape.

Might even fold this pre if his 3bet range is tight.

I'm not disagreeing, I think the way you played it is just about the only good way; folding and calling both have big flaws.

However, if he's a decent thinking opponent (which he may or may not be), there's a pretty sizeable difference in him holding QQ vs TT here; not only because of the possibilities that you have JJ or have the other two TT or QQ, but also the fact that QQ is a higher pair, and that a J on the turn might not necessarily give you a higher pair than him or a higher flush.