Villain here is 15/14 with 6.4 3-bet over 900 hands.

I called the river because I thought it wouldn't make sense for him to check the turn and bet big on the river for value with an overpair or better as the only hands he's getting value from UTG would be other overpairs and those would most likely called the turn on such a dry board. So to me it looked like he was c-betting then check the turn with all his weak hands and then bet big on the river to try to make me fold all my weak and medium strength hands.

Was my thought process and assumptions correct here ? I should mention that he have 83% flop c-bet and only 33% turn c-bet but I'd still expect him to bet his value hand on the turn here.

Problem is, you almost never see people bluffing on the river when they take this bet/check/bet line in my exerience.


Don't post results..

3 bet vs mp stat ?

I posted the results here because it was kind of obvious that he had me beaten otherwise my assumptions would have been correct and I wouldn't have posted the hand.

It's at 4.8%

you can also play bad and win the hand..

you could(but less likely) bet on the turn with 80% or a pot size and see what he does,and probably get check on the river,if not, i think you can fold to river bet.