Vilain is 16/13 and 3 bet 4% from MP
Fold to c bet 50%
river agg 38% - so there are a lot of bluffs in his range

All of this is over 350 hands

I feel like AA, KK and QQ would have raised pre.

So he is calling the flop with 88-99-TT
With 50% fold to c bet, there are probably some floats in his range.

I fire the turn with the Q and he calls.

So KQ, AQ, slowplayed KK, AA and QQ becomes possible, but I guess 88 and QQ are reraising the turn...

How would you play the river?

I feel like I don't beat much.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($50)
BB ($53.25)
Hero ($50.75)
UTG+1 ($29.10)
UTG+2 ($65.10)
MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($60.65)
CO ($52.85)
BTN ($52.30)

Dealt to Hero J J

Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, MP2 calls $1.50, fold, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($3.75) 3 8 6

Hero bets $2.50, MP2 calls $2.50

TURN ($8.75) 3 8 6 Q

Hero bets $4.50, MP2 calls $4.50

RIVER ($17.75) 3 8 6 Q 4

Hero checks, MP2 bets $9, Hero folds

MP2 wins $16.90

I call cause f him. We only need to be good ~1/4 of the time and I think he stabs the river like 75% of the time when checked to whether he has it or not. You're right that there isn't a ton that we beat and that's kind of unsettling, but I think we'll be good often enough to call for this price.

I think you played it well. A 16/13 is just not going to have much in his range that you beat except for 45 which hit a pair on the river which discounts a bet from him. It's hard for me to imagine 79 being in his calling range.

Also I think your logic is fine, but you need to be flexible on a dry board as to how a Villain might play it. For example, I'm not raising you on the turn with a set ever.

wish he bet bigger cause that's what his bluffs would do, his sizing screams value but I probably call because he can also be value betting 8x 99/TT type hands for thin value.

i'd call also

you beat nothing that valuebets this river so you only beat bluffs, do you think he bluffs <25% of the time on the river? I don't.