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ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

04-28-2009 , 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sp00n
Crazy attempt to save ImNotSoGood some money.

Lets roll a dice, then another dice.

Dice 1: If it rolls a 1, 2, 3 or 4, you win. 5 or 6 and I win. (The 3k-1k game) 66/33
Dice 2: If it rolls 1, 2 or 3 you win. 4, 5 or 6 and I win. (The 2k-2k game) 50/50

Now lets try rolling the second dice first.

Dice 2: If it rolls 1, 2 or 3 you win. 4, 5 or 6 and I win. (The 2k-2k game) 50/50
Dice 1: If it rolls a 1, 2, 3 or 4, you win. 5 or 6 and I win. (The 3k-1k game) 66/33

Now lets do something really crazy, lets keep the same rules, but roll dice 1 and 2 at the same time!

Hang on? This sounds familiar!
wow, ....

Don't you see that if you roll them both at the same time, dice 2, the less polished cheaper dice is more likely to stop rolling around first, and since I have a bigger chance of winning with dice 1 I'd rather have it stop rolling first, since its more likely to make me the ROUND TWO VICTOR, then after I have that awesomely cool yet completely irrelevant title claimed we can let dice 2 rip as a "tiebreaker", which makes it sound like I was way closer to a win since its like a basketball overtime, 1-2 is way more "bawss" than 0-2
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:27 AM
lol

most people in this situation would take a second to realize that literally everyone in the thread thinks they're wrong (and wants to bet them a lot of money on it)

but nope, keep on chugging kid!
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:27 AM
Quote:
wow, ....

Don't you see that if you roll them both at the same time ...
That would be so cool, I can only compare your explanation to Soccer, because I don't know anything about basketball.

Imagine if you played extra time before the 90minute main game. That would be awesome. Imagine the meta game, you could totally relax and lose extra time 20-0. Or you could go for draw in the main game after winning the beforehand extra time. Sick idea imo.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddi
ImNotSoGood: Assume you win the 3:1 match 100% of the time. Does it matter when/in which order you play the 2:2 match?

Another simplification to help you understand is the following - imagine the first match is decided by running AK vs KQ and the second one is decided by running 22 vs AKs. Does it matter in which order you do these?

This should hopefully clear your confusion.
What happens when you run them both at the same time though.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:40 AM
yeah, like explanations of martingale seem so fullproof because english just doesn't seem to do justice do a lot of finer points in math, especially probability. Like the word "always" which people use in explanations of martingale are often used in sentences like "we'll always seem to win 1 trial" or the word "unlikely" in a sentence like "its very unlikely we'll lose x amount of times in a row" not only lead the reader astray, but they are not even pertinent to the main point at hand.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sp00n
What happens when you run them both at the same time though.
The universe collapses or some other failed attempt at a witty joke.

As I'm in my serious mood though, I think giving and receiving so much random crap is not helpful for either side of the argument and obviously makes for a much tougher environment for admitting mistakes (and moving on and locking this thread).
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:50 AM
ImNotSoGood made a fair point about Zugwat being semi-douchey, we shouldn't judge him as being "OUTRAGEOUS". I definately feel his "explanations" and responses of the fallacy have also been semi-douchey. I think poking a little fun at the situation is more than ok because of it, but I also understand where you are coming from. If he had been trying his best to convey his thoughts, rather than talking total bajunky, then I'd be sorry. Most likely he has realised his mistake, and won't post again in this thread. Either that or he's super stubborn and illogical.

EDIT: I can see the possiblity ImNotSoGood misunderstood the problem, whereby he wants to play a single tie-breaker match, rather than multitabling, requiring a 2-0 win.

Last edited by Sp00n; 04-28-2009 at 10:56 AM.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood
yes definately, everybody im stupid, plz gimme action HU, i dont know numbers and stuff



Heres a hypothetical

Say in the 3k-1k match (Still 2nd table, while 0-1), the 3k stack is a 95% favorite.


And suppose in the 2k -2k match, (lets call it 2ka, and 2kb), 2kA only wins 10% of the time.

In this scenario, while the 3k-1k match is going on, (0-1, 2nd table), would it have 0 effect to add the 2ka-2kb table?
Look, lets say you win the first match A% of the time and the second match B% of the time.

Are you arguing that A and B will change depending on whether the matches are played at the same time or not? If so, why do you believe this?
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:55 AM
but guys that last match is a TIE BREAKER

TIE

FRIGGIN

BREAKER
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 10:55 AM
omg TIE BREAKERRRRR
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 11:00 AM
I'm not really following whats being said about the multi tabling issue but, were in the rules does it say that he has to play 2-3 tables at a time?

was it not just encouraged to play 2-3 at a time? if he feels his edge is better playing 1 at a time then that should be fine? but zugwat was obviously in the wrong here constantly holding the match off, he shouldn't have entered the tourny if he wasn't too bothered about getting the games done asap, doing things like 4 tabling ike hu rather than playing imnotsogood was obviously wrong.

EDIT: correct me if i'm wrong about if the rules state he has to multi table, bc i've not checked the rules that were set.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood
April 12th, 2009
Zugwat(2:04:56 AM):nah im pretty tired

April 13th, 2009
Zugwat(9:53:05 PM):i dont think im gonna wanna play today

.....4.20/09
Zugwat(7:05:46 PM):ive been playing all day day 2 of the ept, im real tired and need to get sleep before playing tomorrow

4/22/09

Zugwat(7:16:06 PM):possibly but im rpetty tired
Zugwat(7:16:09 PM):and gonna try and play for a while ????

Zugwat(9:01:17 PM):man
Zugwat(9:01:19 PM):im really tired
Zugwat(9:01:23 PM):i just dont think i can play
Zugwat(9:01:25 PM):tonight

Later that night: Zugwat(10:25 PM): yo, im actually about to sign off, and go to sleep, can play for sure this weekend

4/26/09

Zugwat(8:59:11 PM): yo man its 6 in the morning here
Zugwat(8:59:14 PM): were gonna have to pause it again
Zugwat(9:00:59 PM): we gotta pause, ok?
Zugwat is very sleepy imo.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daddy Warbucks
I laugh every time i see OUTRAGEOUS in caps in the thread title.
This

Mark
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 12:14 PM
lol yuh
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefypoopoo
why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free
<3 reef
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daddy Warbucks
I laugh every time i see OUTRAGEOUS in caps in the thread title.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJf7G08kMfA
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by (>^_^)>
Quote:
This video is not available in your country.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 12:50 PM
anonymouse.org imo Warbucks.

Mark
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04-28-2009 , 01:04 PM
Wow this one of the funniest threads I have read on 2+2.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 01:24 PM
Usually when a lot of very smart people tell you that you are wrong, you may want to reconsider your stance.
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mj12
Usually when a lot of very smart people tell you that you are wrong, you may want to reconsider your stance.
that always sucks in school when you raise your hands for multiple choice answers and 90% of the class raises their hand for the answer you didn't pick

anyway i can see wanting to get the 3k-1k match out of the way for greater focus and morale in the final match
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood
.625 x {(.75).50+(.25).75} = .3516

.75= CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 2K-2K STACK AS TIEBREAKER(CHANCE I OF 3K-1K STACK WINNING)

.25 = CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 3K-1K STACK AS TIEBREAKER


not sure if I calculated speed of win properly in order to predict which stack is used in tiebreaker, but it seems relatively close to what it should be.
So, assuming I understand this correctly, this part of your calculation

{(.75).50+(.25).75}

is supposed to be the "speed of win"?

Assuming that this is correct (and frankly, I don't understand what you're trying to do here):

How is the speed related to the EV? Why would you multiply your "stack" (.625 = 5000/8000) by the speed?

What, exactly, is 0.3516 supposed to represent?

Lastly, if we take your argument about adding another table effectively making it one big table literally, then why isn't your chance to win 0.625?

Last edited by Big_Jim; 04-28-2009 at 02:18 PM.
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04-28-2009 , 02:39 PM
epic
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04-28-2009 , 02:40 PM
lollllllllllllllllls great thread, so many plots
ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Quote
04-28-2009 , 02:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood
How much do you wanna prop bet that you are wrong?

(Meaning - It's not .5 x .75 = .375)
I seriously wanna prop bet any amount you want, as long as it is escrowed by someone of trust who haven't read this thread yet.

PLEASE ANSWER I want to do it.
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