Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Online No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em online cash games of all stakes, including pot-limit and cap games.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-28-2009, 10:24 AM   #101
AJFenix
Pooh-Bah
 
AJFenix's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: twitch.tv/adrianfenixx
Posts: 4,869
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sp00n View Post
Crazy attempt to save ImNotSoGood some money.

Lets roll a dice, then another dice.

Dice 1: If it rolls a 1, 2, 3 or 4, you win. 5 or 6 and I win. (The 3k-1k game) 66/33
Dice 2: If it rolls 1, 2 or 3 you win. 4, 5 or 6 and I win. (The 2k-2k game) 50/50

Now lets try rolling the second dice first.

Dice 2: If it rolls 1, 2 or 3 you win. 4, 5 or 6 and I win. (The 2k-2k game) 50/50
Dice 1: If it rolls a 1, 2, 3 or 4, you win. 5 or 6 and I win. (The 3k-1k game) 66/33

Now lets do something really crazy, lets keep the same rules, but roll dice 1 and 2 at the same time!

Hang on? This sounds familiar!
wow, ....

Don't you see that if you roll them both at the same time, dice 2, the less polished cheaper dice is more likely to stop rolling around first, and since I have a bigger chance of winning with dice 1 I'd rather have it stop rolling first, since its more likely to make me the ROUND TWO VICTOR, then after I have that awesomely cool yet completely irrelevant title claimed we can let dice 2 rip as a "tiebreaker", which makes it sound like I was way closer to a win since its like a basketball overtime, 1-2 is way more "bawss" than 0-2
AJFenix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:27 AM   #102
NHFunkii
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NHFunkii's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: is this real life?
Posts: 14,646
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

lol

most people in this situation would take a second to realize that literally everyone in the thread thinks they're wrong (and wants to bet them a lot of money on it)

but nope, keep on chugging kid!
NHFunkii is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:27 AM   #103
Sp00n
adept
 
Sp00n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Spooning
Posts: 1,046
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
wow, ....

Don't you see that if you roll them both at the same time ...
That would be so cool, I can only compare your explanation to Soccer, because I don't know anything about basketball.

Imagine if you played extra time before the 90minute main game. That would be awesome. Imagine the meta game, you could totally relax and lose extra time 20-0. Or you could go for draw in the main game after winning the beforehand extra time. Sick idea imo.
Sp00n is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:33 AM   #104
Sp00n
adept
 
Sp00n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Spooning
Posts: 1,046
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddi View Post
ImNotSoGood: Assume you win the 3:1 match 100% of the time. Does it matter when/in which order you play the 2:2 match?

Another simplification to help you understand is the following - imagine the first match is decided by running AK vs KQ and the second one is decided by running 22 vs AKs. Does it matter in which order you do these?

This should hopefully clear your confusion.
What happens when you run them both at the same time though.
Sp00n is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:40 AM   #105
JooWish622
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: New York City
Posts: 2,128
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

yeah, like explanations of martingale seem so fullproof because english just doesn't seem to do justice do a lot of finer points in math, especially probability. Like the word "always" which people use in explanations of martingale are often used in sentences like "we'll always seem to win 1 trial" or the word "unlikely" in a sentence like "its very unlikely we'll lose x amount of times in a row" not only lead the reader astray, but they are not even pertinent to the main point at hand.
JooWish622 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:42 AM   #106
Eddi
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Eddi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: 2 stupid for science? try religion!
Posts: 6,296
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sp00n View Post
What happens when you run them both at the same time though.
The universe collapses or some other failed attempt at a witty joke.

As I'm in my serious mood though, I think giving and receiving so much random crap is not helpful for either side of the argument and obviously makes for a much tougher environment for admitting mistakes (and moving on and locking this thread).
Eddi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:50 AM   #107
Sp00n
adept
 
Sp00n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Spooning
Posts: 1,046
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

ImNotSoGood made a fair point about Zugwat being semi-douchey, we shouldn't judge him as being "OUTRAGEOUS". I definately feel his "explanations" and responses of the fallacy have also been semi-douchey. I think poking a little fun at the situation is more than ok because of it, but I also understand where you are coming from. If he had been trying his best to convey his thoughts, rather than talking total bajunky, then I'd be sorry. Most likely he has realised his mistake, and won't post again in this thread. Either that or he's super stubborn and illogical.

EDIT: I can see the possiblity ImNotSoGood misunderstood the problem, whereby he wants to play a single tie-breaker match, rather than multitabling, requiring a 2-0 win.

Last edited by Sp00n; 04-28-2009 at 10:56 AM.
Sp00n is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:54 AM   #108
mustmuck
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,497
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood View Post
yes definately, everybody im stupid, plz gimme action HU, i dont know numbers and stuff



Heres a hypothetical

Say in the 3k-1k match (Still 2nd table, while 0-1), the 3k stack is a 95% favorite.


And suppose in the 2k -2k match, (lets call it 2ka, and 2kb), 2kA only wins 10% of the time.

In this scenario, while the 3k-1k match is going on, (0-1, 2nd table), would it have 0 effect to add the 2ka-2kb table?
Look, lets say you win the first match A% of the time and the second match B% of the time.

Are you arguing that A and B will change depending on whether the matches are played at the same time or not? If so, why do you believe this?
mustmuck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:55 AM   #109
(>^_^)>
banned
 
(>^_^)>'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: this is OUTRAGEOUS
Posts: 306
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

but guys that last match is a TIE BREAKER

TIE

FRIGGIN

BREAKER
(>^_^)> is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 10:55 AM   #110
(>^_^)>
banned
 
(>^_^)>'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: this is OUTRAGEOUS
Posts: 306
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

omg TIE BREAKERRRRR
(>^_^)> is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 11:00 AM   #111
ryanaw19
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 872
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

I'm not really following whats being said about the multi tabling issue but, were in the rules does it say that he has to play 2-3 tables at a time?

was it not just encouraged to play 2-3 at a time? if he feels his edge is better playing 1 at a time then that should be fine? but zugwat was obviously in the wrong here constantly holding the match off, he shouldn't have entered the tourny if he wasn't too bothered about getting the games done asap, doing things like 4 tabling ike hu rather than playing imnotsogood was obviously wrong.

EDIT: correct me if i'm wrong about if the rules state he has to multi table, bc i've not checked the rules that were set.
ryanaw19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 11:21 AM   #112
AbreuTime
Pooh-Bah
 
AbreuTime's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: arguing the Comcast
Posts: 3,912
Re: LIAR!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood View Post
April 12th, 2009
Zugwat(2:04:56 AM):nah im pretty tired

April 13th, 2009
Zugwat(9:53:05 PM):i dont think im gonna wanna play today

.....4.20/09
Zugwat(7:05:46 PM):ive been playing all day day 2 of the ept, im real tired and need to get sleep before playing tomorrow

4/22/09

Zugwat(7:16:06 PM):possibly but im rpetty tired
Zugwat(7:16:09 PM):and gonna try and play for a while ????

Zugwat(9:01:17 PM):man
Zugwat(9:01:19 PM):im really tired
Zugwat(9:01:23 PM):i just dont think i can play
Zugwat(9:01:25 PM):tonight

Later that night: Zugwat(10:25 PM): yo, im actually about to sign off, and go to sleep, can play for sure this weekend

4/26/09

Zugwat(8:59:11 PM): yo man its 6 in the morning here
Zugwat(8:59:14 PM): were gonna have to pause it again
Zugwat(9:00:59 PM): we gotta pause, ok?
Zugwat is very sleepy imo.
AbreuTime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 12:05 PM   #113
NOSUP4U
banned
 
NOSUP4U's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 2,694
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Daddy Warbucks View Post
I laugh every time i see OUTRAGEOUS in caps in the thread title.
This

Mark
NOSUP4U is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 12:14 PM   #114
easycall
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: pm to set up grudge match ldo
Posts: 2,907
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

lol yuh
easycall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 12:21 PM   #115
BobboFitos
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BobboFitos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Cambridge, MA
Posts: 72,764
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefypoopoo View Post
why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free
<3 reef
BobboFitos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 12:21 PM   #116
(>^_^)>
banned
 
(>^_^)>'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: this is OUTRAGEOUS
Posts: 306
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by Daddy Warbucks View Post
I laugh every time i see OUTRAGEOUS in caps in the thread title.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJf7G08kMfA
(>^_^)> is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 12:30 PM   #117
Daddy Warbucks
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Daddy Warbucks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 15,771
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by (>^_^)> View Post
Quote:
This video is not available in your country.
Daddy Warbucks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 12:50 PM   #118
NOSUP4U
banned
 
NOSUP4U's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 2,694
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

anonymouse.org imo Warbucks.

Mark
NOSUP4U is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 01:04 PM   #119
Rollos
adept
 
Rollos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,109
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Wow this one of the funniest threads I have read on 2+2.
Rollos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 01:24 PM   #120
mj12
old hand
 
mj12's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: very very handsome
Posts: 1,564
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Usually when a lot of very smart people tell you that you are wrong, you may want to reconsider your stance.
mj12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 01:35 PM   #121
chisness
Pooh-Bah
 
chisness's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,683
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by mj12 View Post
Usually when a lot of very smart people tell you that you are wrong, you may want to reconsider your stance.
that always sucks in school when you raise your hands for multiple choice answers and 90% of the class raises their hand for the answer you didn't pick

anyway i can see wanting to get the 3k-1k match out of the way for greater focus and morale in the final match
chisness is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 02:06 PM   #122
Big_Jim
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Big_Jim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: BEHIND YOU
Posts: 13,592
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood
.625 x {(.75).50+(.25).75} = .3516

.75= CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 2K-2K STACK AS TIEBREAKER(CHANCE I OF 3K-1K STACK WINNING)

.25 = CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 3K-1K STACK AS TIEBREAKER


not sure if I calculated speed of win properly in order to predict which stack is used in tiebreaker, but it seems relatively close to what it should be.
So, assuming I understand this correctly, this part of your calculation

{(.75).50+(.25).75}

is supposed to be the "speed of win"?

Assuming that this is correct (and frankly, I don't understand what you're trying to do here):

How is the speed related to the EV? Why would you multiply your "stack" (.625 = 5000/8000) by the speed?

What, exactly, is 0.3516 supposed to represent?

Lastly, if we take your argument about adding another table effectively making it one big table literally, then why isn't your chance to win 0.625?

Last edited by Big_Jim; 04-28-2009 at 02:18 PM.
Big_Jim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 02:39 PM   #123
traz
Werewolf Super*
 
traz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Sleeping on stacks
Posts: 33,259
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

epic
traz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 02:40 PM   #124
m_reed05
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 8,611
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

lollllllllllllllllls great thread, so many plots
m_reed05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2009, 02:59 PM   #125
DrGiggy
grinder
 
DrGiggy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 658
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood View Post
How much do you wanna prop bet that you are wrong?

(Meaning - It's not .5 x .75 = .375)
I seriously wanna prop bet any amount you want, as long as it is escrowed by someone of trust who haven't read this thread yet.

PLEASE ANSWER I want to do it.
DrGiggy is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:10 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive