18/13 over like 200 hands
Pretty solid player from what i gathered

What do you guys think about this?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 471923
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $10.50
UTG: $10.05
Hero (CO): $10.80
BTN: $10.00
SB: $10.20

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A A
UTG raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) 7 Q 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.30, UTG raises to $3, Hero folds

So you put him on exactly QQ?

99/77?

Anyway I never fold this.

^^ We have to assume this villain folds those hands pre.

I'd give him at least all his 99 combos given heros 3bet sizing.

lol I don't think you need to discount 77 and 99 just because he's 18/13.

But I'm never folding this ever.

is he really r/folding 99?
whats left then, AQ or something? possibly QQ as well.

I just think his raise size suggests something way stronger than AQ. But then again i suck and am usually wrong...

AA HU in 3b pot, I'm never folding.

Ship it in or flat and get it in on the turn.

really need to shove this.

had villian c/r flop before?

Whats so strong about the bet sizing?

My initial thoughts are that it's terrible, and if you are going to fold here you should probably not bet (you should probably stop playing 6-max too).

But the more I look at it, because you did 3-bet pre, he can't think he can push you off too much w/ a smallish c/r. So up against his value range, things aren't looking so rosy. AQ is about the only thing you beat, and he'd only do this if he thought you'd call w/ AK or JJ. Still not sure you can fold though.

JTss has to make up some of his range though, and you're in good shape against that.

Fiddling around in PStove though, by god it is hard to tighten to a range where you are a dog...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

34,650 games 0.005 secs 6,930,000 games/sec

Board: 7s Qd 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.668% 59.67% 00.00% 20675 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 40.332% 40.33% 00.00% 13975 0.00 { QQ, 99, 77, AQs, KQs, JTs, T8s, AQo, KQo }


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,810 games 0.005 secs 3,762,000 games/sec

Board: 7s Qd 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.321% 46.32% 00.00% 8713 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 53.679% 53.68% 00.00% 10097 0.00 { QQ, 99, 77, AQs, JTs, AQo }

You are weaktight was my initial thought. The second was that you probably folded the best hand.

infact for sake of sanity can you message villian and find out what they had???

i folded dude. i asked him but got no reply

Work on that 3bet sizing. You're inviting players to call with pocket pairs to setmine. We have the nuts preflop, get the most value out of it.

soooooooooooo he's never doing this with AQ/KQ?

right...but this is an awful fold seriously, please never do this again at this limit if you want to make money.

I'm collecting one-liners.

OT: I'd have a hard time folding this on the flop, but..

- KK he 4bets mostly preflop
- QQ calls always
- 99/88 often as well (what's his fold-to-3bet?)
- AQ sometimes
- no likely 2 pairs on the board

- villain never blufraises here
- villain raises AQ here < 10% of the time

All in all, I think we all go broke here against a stronger hand, and then go on the forum and say OMG AA 3bet POT NEVER FOLD.

edit: I wish you gave more postflop stats, preflop doesn't tell us too much.

There is a reason everyone tells him not to fold secondguess. I'm not sure how you can say with such certainty that he mostly 4bets KK pre but always calls with QQ, and that he's NEVER bluffraising here and rarely raising AQ for value. If this is the case it's a very very easy fold btw. We never have such a good and specific read on this villain though, and with the reads given we should never fold here.

How much would you 3-bet to? 3x the initial raise is fairly standard for me when in position. Also, with AA, I really don't want to scare off worse hands by 3-betting too large.

How I can tell? By going broke in these spots often enough.

It's 10NL, they 4bet KK+ and flat JJ+,AK against a 3bet 90% of the time.

Blufraising in a 3bet pot by ...LOL. The fact the board is dry makes it even worse.

why does he call a 3bet with qq and auto 4bts kk> at my time at nl10, 85% of regs reraised qq and gets it in preflop? has it changed in the last few months or something?>

I disagree with these 4 points:
1. lots of people try to get it in pre w/ QQ, and this person's pretty aggressive pre so i don't see why they would "never" (as your "always" suggests) 4b/shove QQ pre.
2. AQ sometimes flats a 3b pre? or AQ sometimes 4b pre? I would say AQ always flats a 3b pre in this situation unless the 3-bettor is like 10/7 or some other ridiculous nit.
3. i don't see why he never ever bluffraises here, people do stupid things all the time at the micros.
4. once again i don't understand where you're basing this raising range off of. i hardly think you have the data to make such a positive conclusion, so it's pretty arbitrary. it's not like this person has a highly defined playing style where we can be like 'omg they did x on abc board, they must have {sets}.'

I'm going broke on this board because for every time I lose to a set I'm going to be stacking three people with AQ/KQ or maybe even a weirdly played KK in the future.

edit:

what's your samplesize and how many times did you win in this exact same situation? it's pretty easy to have a selective memory about this type of thing.

12-13bb. That way you're pricing out pocket pairs that want to setmine. You can't always worry about scaring off worse hands.

Really folding this is like ridiculous. I think QQ mostly 4 bets pre. There is a possibility that he has a set, I give you that. But also in my experience people love to slowplay sets. They also love to put you on AK. It's not once or twice that I have seen people raise fold in this spot trying to buy the pot cheaply thinking you mostly missed (which isn't that bad because you do have more AK than AA KK QQ (AQ most players NL10 don't 3 bet v UTG). he might have any random PP and even JTs. He might have AQ KQ that is rasing because "damn I hit my top pair, let's get it in, if he has an overpair then so be it.

All in all we don't really know that much about opponent. If he is a complete nutpeddling nit with 85% fold to cbet 85% fold to 3 bet and 3% raise cbet over 500+ hands then we can consider folding this. But putting our villain on exclusively sets in a 3 bet pot is beyond bad IMO.

Dude this is a clear stack off. If we give villain a range of 77,99,QQ-KK we should still never fold here. You might wanna argue that he doesn't have KK in his range but you saying that he has all his QQ in his range and that his raising range is basically only sets is just wrong. He could even go for this smallish c/r with stuff like 22 to get us off AK which is more than 50% of our range if he 3bet AK,QQ+ pre.