Villain in hand is KleineKarin, a decent TAG. He runs about 18/15/4, and i haven't tangled with him much. I c/r the river because i think he is capable of folding some hands that beat me there, and i do feel he can go for thin value. Obviously the river is the part i want to focus on, but comments on any other street gratefully accepted too.

Party Poker $400 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $400.00
UTG: $436.40
MP: $214.64
CO: $404.00
BTN: $400.00
Hero (SB): $422.00

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with T T
2 folds, CO raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($32.00) J 6 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $22, Hero calls $22

Turn: ($76.00) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $55, Hero calls $55

River: ($186.00) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $134, Hero raises to $331 all in

I think you have to be deeper for this to work. The river is basically a minraise, so I really can't see him folding. Also not entirely clear what you're repping besides 77/99 and maybe some thin value with J9 (I'm assuming you c/r your draws most of the time).

ditto. i like the idea tho.

How about any 7hXh, 76s, or 87s?

Like I said I assume he's c/r'ing his draws most of the time, so that only leaves 67s - sure add another 3 hands - doesn't really change much.

Dont like it. I think your only really repping a str8, as I believe that sets and overpairs have to raise somewhere to protect. now what str8's are in your range? You could be repping 2 pair but 1) you are overrepping your hand a bit and 2) how many 2 pairs are really in your range?

Hearts missed, overpairs hate to fold. I think I like this more if the hearts actually came in.

But most people would agree i can't really call right?

Probably not. Very villain-dependent (so is the turn btw).

I think call > raise actually.

I just think he snaps off the rest of the stack with almost everything he's valuebetting on this river.

I think the play would work much better if you were in position raising his 3rdbarrell than this situation where I don't think he is valuebetting as superthin as you think and would defo check behind weaker made hands at some point.

And the hands your trying to rep (78hh etc.) are much more likely to be in his range than yours

You have to know for a fact he value bets really thin for this to be good. I notice that most TAGs dont value bet very thin at all, even 'good' ones.

theoretically i like it, but practically i dont think hes folding unless hes bluffing

if he's folding a set here than I like it.......if not it's pretty damn spewy.

as people have said, the prob is ur not repping many hands with a 7 in.

meh, i think most villains here put you on missed hearts turned spewy and make the call.

(n/b when i do this i see like a 7 EVERYTIME - lol)

Are people really doing this with missed hearts? I mean, its possible, but its just not something i see that often. I think i get to the river this way with almost every 7 thats in my calling range (except maybe 78, and even then its not an auto c/r), and i can do this with most of my 2 pair combos here too because i don't feel he has a lot of 7's in his range.

My decision to crai the river came from the fact that i believe his range to be pretty bluff-centric, but i can't really call here either i feel. I just think that if i posted the hand from villains perspective with AJ, people would probably be telling me to fold, no? I INSTA-c/r'd the river fwiw.

I would 3bet this preflop and take it down.

Good idea on river though, but you maybe have to be a little deeper. Maybe I would c/r this och turn and fold for a shove if u want to make a move on him

No if I was villain I would 100% expect you to c/r w/ a set since this flop looks like a good flop to c/r and since I'm 18/15 I would think that you would think that I wouldn't two barrel, let alone 3barrel, this board often.
Also I don't think villain is 3 barreling this board with air.

What type of hands exactly do you c/r if you're not c/r'ing your draws? I mean I think it's fine to c/c with a draw, but I'm just curious how exactly do you balance it with the rest of your hands (if you do balance of course).

Note, that even if you posted this hand from villain's perspective with AJ and people did tell you to fold and that was the correct decision (which I'm not going to argue about), that doesn't mean that villain is good enough to do that in this spot getting such a good price.

lol at everyone saying he can't fold. if he doesn't suck badly then of course he can value bet and fold to a check/raise even if it's only a minraise. do you all never really fold here? that's absolutely terrible.

i like the play against anyone who i consider a good player, otherwise i guess yeah don't bluff idiots but that's not the point of posting and goes without saying anyways.

I'm definitely not trying to rep a set, at least not on the flop.

And him having air might have had to do with the bet timing, villain fired every single street very quickly, which was pretty much why i decided to make this move. He seemed either to have the nuts, or have a hand that couldn't withstand much pressure.

I c/r quite a lot of flops, but its very board texture dependant. If i check raise and get 3-bet or pushed on, my draw equity would probably be pretty bad against his range, and i'm in a tough spot if i have to play a turn. Pretty much the only draw i can see myself c/r'ing is 2 overs + flush draw, or Jxhh. I think its just an easy flop to get yeti'd on.

Thing is that villain has it here a freaking lot. Look at his betsizing. He doesnt play a hand that is strong on the turn like this. At least not if he is decent. His bet/folding range seems too slim to me to pull this off. But yes - I think he folds all of his non str8 hands on the river as he very rarely has a set.

i just don't think he is value betting AJ on 3 streets

I certainly don't hate it, but would like it more if there wasn't a missed FD on the flop.

keithaldino said everything i wanted to say in this thread

Villain should be v.betting AJ here every time if hero never c/r bluffs the river IMO.