So I have always assumed that players who cold-call pre-flop and then call a 3bet in a multiway pot have pocket pairs a high % of the time. I thought it might be as high as half the time. As it turns out, I was very wrong. I broke down 149 instances of this happening this year in my 50 Zone games as follows:

TT-JJ... 6
66-99... 27
22-55... 8
Any AK... 7
Suited broadways JTs-AQs... 21
Offsuit broadways JTo-AQo... 27
Small suited aces A2s-A9s... 12
Suited connectors 1-2 gaps... 16
Assorted trash... 25
Total... 149

I was very surprised by these results. Pocket pairs only made up 27.5% of the hands. I supposed I can be less afraid of those low-middle card flops in the future.

I hope some of you found this interesting!

Solvers made me do it.

These are interesting results, I had the same assumption as you.

I feel like that would be true for nitty regish types, but in 50 zone you are prob playing with a ton of actual fish

Ya, good point. Nit regs are probably already super heavy in pocket pairs even before the 3bet comes.

I'm kinda surprised at the results.. I was under the same impression as yourself..

What software did you use to collate this data? I'd be interested to see the results when player types are split into group's as I guess this data is heavily diluted towards recs..


How doe's hero construct a range in this spot? I cold call rarely and its usually from LP when recs are in the blinds.. So vs a 15bb squeeze are we flatting 22-99, 78s+?

You can easily check these out with gtowizard. Like this is the range if you get sqz otb.

Thanks dude. I recently got a gtowizard sub and its well worth the $..

you don't need a sub for the preflop ranges

I just ran a filter for a decent-sized squeeze in my PT4 database. I just used data from this year since I had to manually count everything up.

I think that good regs usually just fold small-medium pocket pairs to decent sized squeezes. As has been pointed out, bad regs or tightish fish probably have pocket pairs a lot more often than high VPIP recs. But all of these hands are from an anonymous pool, so I can't break it down by player type.

Haha I know.. The site is the nuts man..

I go through random scenarios when I'm at work lol