Whenever I see people check back a paired broadway flop in a single-raised pot, I have always assumed that they have showdown value or might even be trapping with trips+. Therefore, I have usually played very cautiously on the turn and river.

To find out if my fear is really true, I found 81 spots in my 340k hand database at 50 NL Zone where my opponent checked back a paired broadway (TT-AA on board) flop. I tallied up the results into 6 categories:

1) trips+
2) strong 2 pair... my opponent either pairs the unpaired board card or has an overpair to it
3) weak 2 pair... a pocket pair smaller than the unpaired board card
4) A/K hi... ace hi if there is no ace on board, K hi if there is an ace on the board
5) draws... gutshot+
6) total air

The results were as follows in these 81 spots:

1) trips+... 12
2) strong 2p... 13
3) weak 2p... 14
4) A/K hi... 16
5) draws... 5
6) air... 21

As it turns out, I was correct that my opponents usually had showdown value when they checked behind. A/K hi or better made up 55 out of 81 of the trials. I believe it may have been a couple more than that since some of the draws were A or K hi.

But I definitely expected more of the trips+ and strong 2 pair hands. Trips+ or strong 2 pair only made up 25 out of the 81 trials. Additionally, I noticed that my opponents were immediately giving up on the turn with A/K hi and even the weak 2 pairs most of the time. In other words, I should almost certainly be stabbing on the turn with my air in these spots which I had not been doing much. Coming from LHE where people never fold A hi in this spot, I likely didn't realize how often people are going to fold A/K hi or a weak 2 pair on the turn to a 2/3-3/4 bet.

I hope some of you find this interesting!

Thank you for the info brother!

This is kind of obvious? If the flop is JJ8 then obviously their range has a bunch of pairs and A/K high hands...

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