Poker Stars $22+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN/SB: t1580
Hero (BB): t1420

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 6 4
BTN/SB calls t10, Hero checks

Flop: (t40) 5 7 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

Turn: (t40) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t30, BTN/SB calls t30

River: (t100) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t120, Hero raises to t300?

Only played 4 hands with Villain. He has been playing agro. In the past I would have just instamucked this , but can't put Villain on a hand. He limp/reraised me in the previous hand.

it would be a lot sexier if he didnt overbet...that said, its a great spot in general.

You line doesn't make any sense. I don't really like this...

i bet the flop, fwiw. Here it's bleh, I hate it more than i like it.

Against a thinking villain, this is not a good spot. He also made an overbet, witch at these stakes usually is pretty strong. You usually can't convince him to fold even a 5 with this line.

lead the flop. I don't like the river, you are not repping anything.

This hand has a lot less to do with what I am representing than what Villain is representing. As I stated early Villain is agro and most likely would have cbet the flop if he had a 7 in his hand. To protect from possible straight draws and overcards. The turn pairs the board and brings a flush draw. Also at this point if he had a 7 he would have likely raised to protect his hand from the potential flushs, straights.

The river bricks and I am about to give up on the hand. Villain then bets out 120. If he had a king in his hand, he would probably bet this but overbetting the pot, what does he think he will be called by? Also a king is such a small part of his range. He would have to be very sick to make an overbet value of a pair of 5's as well. At this point I can't put Villain on any hand. The overbet makes it seem like a float/draw and realises if I checked the river I probably don't have a 7 or a K. And he is trying to get me off a 5 or 2. Thus at this point if I had any showdown value I would just call. But since I don't I need to counterbluff.

Any comments on this thought process.

bet the flop. i don't know what you are repping on the river. i'd snap call this with a king. if you really expect him to fold a king here i think you have to shove. pretty sure you bet the flop with a seven, so its hard to put you on that. you either have to have a boat or air here. for such a small amount he has to look you up. shove and you have a chance, though i think you can find a lot better spots.

lol shoving is super -EV imo not marginal.

XST: You are giving too much credit to your opponents thought process before even getting some rough ideas about his style of play (which is kind of suicidal at the 20s). Don't assume that he thinks this way:

Also

Very wrong, you can't make bluffs without repping anything just b/c villain seems weak and especially not w/o reads.

I am glad you posted this because I'd like some feed back on how I read this over bet.....until I am proven otherwise I assume the villian is trying too be greedy with a rather big hand in hoping that you have something and do not believe he would bet a big hand like this.....
My thoughts:
If he was bluffing he would not try to draw attention to his bet......
If he is bluffing here then you are going to be able to extract maximum value out of your hands when you make a real hand and use a bet-c/c line.

How does he play his big hands?

You should have bet the flop here. THe only hand you can represent here is a poorly played over pair?

The problem with this thought process is that the pot is small. Villian makes an overbet, and we need to make a decent raise for any chance of winning this pot. We can't really rep a hand, so we will be called light. It's just not worth it ...

We could debate whether the overbet is a guy with a decent hand trying to be greedy, or a total miss. Personally, I think he will show up with a decent hand more than a bluff. Unfortunately, we don't really have a read on him. The point is; is it really worth it to bluff a small pot we have already given up on?

dunno why we definitely cant have a 7 here...
try to c/r flop, bet turn that makes more draws then are already there, they brick, we check to him to bet his draws that bricked, his 5's for value or w/e, and repop with a 7...

i mean, i guess a river lead with a 7 is better than a c/r, but its really not out of the question of us having one..

Yeah so lets make a 500 pot from a 40 one (in a 20$ husng against an unknown basically) b/c "it is not out of the question" of us having the only hand we are repping (pretty badly: why would we want to C/R flop instead of leading out with a vulnerable TP in a limped pot on the 4th hand of the match? And if we happened to make a read in 4 hands (irreal) that villain likes to stab in limped pots why wouldn't we C/R the turn? Why don't lead out the river when we can only get value out of C/Ring if he makes a mistake (bluffing missed draws at this point)?)

I would assume villain will stab at limped pots, because he has position, and its a limped ****ing pot that we checked the flop on. If we did have a 7, why on earth would we now c/r the turn?

Also, I think he can have a ton of ******ed Q high or A high hands and bet, plus legit missed draws, a 5 he bet for value and can fold...obv a K goes nowhere, nor a 7. And you bring up that its a 20$ SNG vs an unknown, he can definitely be bluffing missed draws here, which, TBH, I dont think is a mistake.

So if it's not a mistake what do you think this overbet will fold out that has any value?. It would be better if we knew at least a little about villain but we don't so he might easily call us with A high and probably almost always with a 2 or an 5. I don't see why would we want to play big pots with air against an unknown 20$ opponent with unpredictable ranges until we have some reads on him. Also he has to be float/overbet bluffing like 58% of the time to make this play marginally +EV and 68% to make it more then +50chips excepted value.

Why do we have to think that a random 20$ opponent will necessarily play this close to optimal? There are a lot of fit or fold type players and a lot of ppl who don't think its worth to fight for limped pots.

It's not out of the question to have a 7, but you are asking him to believe you have a seven and you played it all fancy.