Quote:
Originally Posted by BarryLyndon
Do you think that given the dynamic, 3-betting AJss here is the most +$EV for the match. I guess what I'm saying is if you think the chances of him 4-betting you are x%, and that you're equity is say better than 40.9%...say it's like 46 or 47%...this early, ,do you want to set yourself up to call the 4-bet? It seems like against this opponent, with your lead already + his seemingly feral style of play, you're equity to win the match is probably gonna be better than 50%.
I don't know what the hell I'd do, it would really go on some kind of pattern, but I'm thinking I may flat his bet in the BB because this move is +EV, and then look for ways to exploit him while still deep the next couple of levels If the history continues, I can call his 3-bet / call 4-bet a bit lighter even and perhaps 4-bet him myself lighter for value later in the match.
Barry
I think your emphasis is off here. Without exceptional reads to the contrary, and I don't think they're indicated or implied in the OP, we 3bet AJs because we can reasonably expect that the majority of the outcomes will be a fold or call, and of the latter, we can get value from dominated hands or lots of check/folds on various flops. Not 3betting AJs because it creates a dubious or thin situation if villain 4bets is ignoring what are quite likely to be the majority outcomes. Unless we have a strong reason to believe those outcomes are bizarrely skewed toward villain folding or 4betting, with few flat calls in between -- for example, because his opening range is very strong (with a bit of bottom range stuff thrown in.)
(This is not to deny that we can flat with AJs pf and have it be fine and +EV. I'm just arguing that your take on our 3betting AJs vs this guy seemed to be missing a major component and the point of why it's also fine, not thin, and +EV.)