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How spewy is this bluff? How spewy is this bluff?

06-08-2014 , 09:21 AM
PFR in CO: 11% (3/28) ; PFR in BTN is 52% (15/29) so he must be somewhat positionally aware of stealing.
Fold to flop cbet: 20% (2/10). Fold to turn cbet: 50% (3/6)


Pre-flop I know is terrible, since I only looked at his HUD which has raise in late position of 32%; but didn't look specifically at CO PFR. But how bad is post-flop?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 107.7 BB (VPIP: 19.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 122)
Hero (SB): 126.2 BB
BB: 132.3 BB (VPIP: 15.73, PFR: 11.24, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 94)
UTG: 107.1 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 22)
MP: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: 372.4 BB (VPIP: 20.63, PFR: 15.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.21, Hands: 262)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K J

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, CO calls 7 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) T 6 9
Hero bets 13 BB, CO calls 13 BB

Turn: (47 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 27 BB, CO calls 27 BB

River: (101 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 76.2 BB and is all-in, fold

Spoiler:
Hero wins 96.5 BB
How spewy is this bluff? Quote
06-08-2014 , 09:25 AM
whats your reasoning
How spewy is this bluff? Quote
06-08-2014 , 06:24 PM
its a 3bet pot. broking ranges are looser and he will often call you with some weak hands.

Fold to flop cbet: 20% (2/10). Fold to turn cbet: 50% (3/6)

in a 3bet pot and with those stats i would be afraid bluffing the river.

my , maybe unexperienced opinion - i want more informations to do something like that. the A on the river could also improve his range. you are oop and dont know if V is strong or weak. ( you block AK,Aj what is good)
CO calls your 3bet which should also tighten his range extreme.

the board is very scary and V wont have an easy decision but for me its a too risky play. also what you are trying to send him for a message what you got?
rivered Ax hand? what was your thinking behind betting three streets. for me IP i would just ask me what did he got in a 3bet pot what he could three barrel at such a spot

dont judge me if this is bull****

his ip calling range will easier hit this board structure than your 3betting range oop/blinds - and now is the questions: can V give up hands like overpairs/bluffcatcher PP/Ax nut flush draw bad kicker/T9/Tx

Last edited by karkok; 06-08-2014 at 06:30 PM.
How spewy is this bluff? Quote
06-08-2014 , 07:31 PM
First I kinda liked it! But changed my mind.

Pre: I like! Blockers and stuff!

Flop: same! Your hand is good to c-bet with. Block some hands! + overcards, gutter etc

Turn: The turn is pretty bad for your percieved range... So I would x turn...
Would you bet an overpair on this turn? Regardless if you hava club or not? What are you representing?

River: since you decided to bet turn I guess riverbet is ok.. You will get called by sets and 2pair. But that might have reraised on former streets... He probably releases all 1pair hands that is worse than pair of aces... I mean you could rep like AcKx on the river! But would you bet that hand on the turn? So smells a little fishy...

I would not continue on the turn though...
How spewy is this bluff? Quote
06-08-2014 , 10:05 PM
It's a bluff you can't run a lot as you rep so thin (bad board to c-bet, worse turn to keep barreling on) so you basically rep like flushes only (TT at a push), so giving yourself 3 value combos and 1 bluff is probably best (although I kinda prefer KcJx although the diff is minimal.), if you run this bluff more than that you're going to have a leak somewhere in the hand (c-betting too much, turn barreling too much, too weak a range somewhere etc.)
How spewy is this bluff? Quote

      
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